Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Seadrift, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:18PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 11:37 AM CDT (16:37 UTC) Moonrise 11:29PMMoonset 1:08PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ235 Bays And Waterways From Port Aransas To Port O'connor- 1035 Am Cdt Tue Sep 28 2021
Rest of today..South wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bays choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Some Thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall.
Wednesday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Friday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East wind around 10 knots. Bays slightly choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ200 1035 Am Cdt Tue Sep 28 2021
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters.. Weak to moderate onshore flow today and tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms today then scattered to numerous from late tonight through Wednesday morning in response to an upper level disturbance. Onshore flow then diminishes to weak to moderate by Wednesday morning all the while storms slowly diminish in coverage through the day. A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue as we head into the weekend. Winds will pick up a bit Wednesday night with small craft exercise caution conditions possible. Scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms are expected daily through the weekend as a series of upper level disturbances pass through the region. Rain chances will begin to decrease late this weekend and early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seadrift, TX
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location: 28.41, -96.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Corpus Christi, TX
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FXUS64 KCRP 281139 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 639 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

AVIATION.

Fog currently at VCT will clear out in another hour or so ahead of widespread VFR conditions. Some showers moving N from the waters could disrupt this near VCT and possibly CRP, but the greatest chance for TS remains tonight into early Wed morning from COT-VCT-CRP as a potential complex of storms moves ESE. Timing of these TS at COT now appears to arrive closer to midnight, with VCT and CRP not seeing this activity until several hours later. Severe storms are unlikely at this time. Otherwise, gusty SE winds will be most common this afternoon and continuing at times overnight at CRP and ALI underneath a 25-30 knot low level jet.

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 359 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday) .

Rich moisture had returned to all of S TX early this morning, yet the greatest PWATs of 2-2.3" were aligned about 70 miles offshore of our coastline. This moist axis is where we expect the brunt of morning and early afternoon convection to unfold, with isolated to scattered convection expected along our coastal counties up to the Victoria Crossroads.

Convection mainly over the waters today should wane later this afternoon at which point our focus will turn farther west to the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau where large scale lift will be amplifying ahead of a shortwave trough. Added to this trough is the presence of sustained upper divergence in the left exit region of a 250-300 mb jet streak. This background ascent should bolster the nocturnal LLJ enough which in turn helps advect 2" PWATs farther inland tonight along with a pool of MUCAPEs ranging from 2k-3k J/kg. Unfortunately, the global models and the NAM keep the core of nocturnal convection just to our north, yet several CAMs paint a much different story owing to mean storm motions being more SE than E. Opted for a heavier weighting of the HREF for PoPs tonight and Wednesday which aligns well with the higher QPF from WPC. WPC's ERO was expanded over much of our region today and Wednesday, but kept at marginal status given rather high flash flood guidance values. Any training/backbuilding of convection late tonight and early Wednesday morning could easily yield swaths of 1-2" of total rainfall with a threat for minor flooding.

Mid-level subsidence will expand to the coast throughout the day on Wednesday following the early morning shortwave trough, so PoPs were tapered back chance levels by the afternoon. High temps may need to be curbed over our eastern zones on Wednesday especially if heavy rain totals encompass a larger area, but even stubborn convective cloud debris could keep highs well short of 90. Heat indices tomorrow may hit SPS levels farther inland with several locations currently forecast to to reach 105 to 107.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday) .

Our wet pattern continues as we head through the first half of the long term period. The upper level low situated across the Desert Southwest early this week will shift off to the north-northeast while being absorbed by a secondary trough digging across the Rockies. This will lead to another low being cut off and left across the Four Corners Region. A series of H5 shortwaves will round the base of the low and eject across the state as we wrap up the work week. Scattered to numerous showers and storms can be expected daily as moisture remains plentiful with PWATs generally around 1.8-2" across the region. A subtropical jet nosing into the region Thursday morning will lead to enhanced lift through the first half of the day so we could see a bit more convective coverage Thursday morning as subsidence attempts to take control during the afternoon. However, with a saturated lower level and convective temps likely being met, I would not be surprised to see active continue through sunset. A similar pattern is expected Friday with another jet impulse moving out of Mexico during the morning hours. It's possible we see locally heavy rainfall at times late this week as forecast soundings indicate low to mid RH values greater than 60%, a warm cloud layer (approaching 15 kft) and above normal PWATs for late September. Guidance continues to concentrate the heaviest rain to our north but a more southerly track of the approaching shortwaves would nudge the higher QPF amounts our way.

As we head into the weekend, the cut off low will slowly lift towards the Plains and ultimately open up as it nears the Midwest. As this happens, one last ripple in the upper air pattern will be sent our way leading to additional showers and storms on Saturday and Sunday. The subtropical ridge to our south will lift to the north this weekend resulting in waning rain chances. The ridge quickly flattens as a trough slides across the Plains and send a weak/decaying cold front our way. Rain chances will continue to taper off heading into next week as drier air arrives behind the weak frontal boundary.

After a warm day on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 90s, temperatures will cool a few degrees, thanks to increasing cloud coverage/rain chances. Lows will generally be in the 70s as we head into the weekend. A couple cooler nights look to be in store early next week as the arrival of drier air will allow temps to cool into the mid 60s across the Coastal Plains.

MARINE .

A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue as we head into the weekend. Winds will pick up a bit Wednesday night with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions possible. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected daily through the weekend as a series of upper level disturbances pass through the region. A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue as we head into the weekend. Winds will pick up a bit Wednesday night with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions possible. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected daily through the weekend as a series of upper level disturbances pass through the region. Rain chances will begin to decrease late this weekend and early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Corpus Christi 92 75 91 75 89 / 20 70 60 40 70 Victoria 92 73 88 73 89 / 30 70 70 60 70 Laredo 98 76 97 75 94 / 20 30 30 30 50 Alice 95 72 93 72 91 / 20 60 40 30 70 Rockport 89 77 89 77 89 / 30 70 70 50 70 Cotulla 98 75 95 74 93 / 40 50 40 40 70 Kingsville 94 73 92 74 92 / 20 50 50 30 70 Navy Corpus 88 78 89 80 88 / 30 70 60 40 70

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. TX . None. GM . None.



MCZ/93 . AVIATION


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 0 mi50 min S 6 G 8 83°F 82°F1012.6 hPa
AWRT2 13 mi50 min SSW 8 G 11 83°F 81°F1011.7 hPa
PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX 17 mi50 min SSE 6 G 8.9 81°F 86°F1012.5 hPa
VCAT2 17 mi50 min S 2.9 G 2.9 81°F 81°F1012.4 hPa
MBET2 20 mi50 min WSW 11 G 14 82°F 1011.5 hPa
RCPT2 - 8774770 - Rockport, TX 32 mi50 min S 12 G 13 83°F 83°F1013.1 hPa
ANPT2 43 mi50 min SSE 9.9 G 12 83°F 1011.6 hPa
UTVT2 43 mi50 min 86°F 80°F
HIVT2 44 mi50 min 86°F 1012 hPa81°F
PTAT2 - Port Aransas, TX 44 mi38 min S 12 G 14 82°F 77°F
RTAT2 - 8775237 - Port Aransas, TX 44 mi50 min S 7 G 13 85°F 82°F1011.6 hPa
EMAT2 47 mi56 min S 5.1 G 7 82°F 81°F1012.5 hPa
MHBT2 48 mi50 min S 11 G 15 86°F 1012 hPa80°F

Wind History for Seadrift, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Lavaca - Calhoun County Airport, TX17 mi43 minSSW 10 G 1410.00 miFair88°F74°F63%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPKV

Wind History from PKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE9NE7SE9SE8SE7SE9SE10SE7SE6S4S3S5S4S4S4S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW10
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SE10SE11SE8SE5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalm----N4N5N5--N3NE5NE5Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Pass Cavallo, Texas
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Pass Cavallo
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Tue -- 03:18 AM CDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:07 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:50 PM CDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:14 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:58 PM CDT     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.71.71.71.71.71.61.51.41.31.210.80.60.50.50.50.60.70.811.21.41.5

Tide / Current Tables for Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Port O'Connor
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:28 AM CDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:07 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:31 PM CDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:14 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:58 PM CDT     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.11.21.21.31.31.31.31.21.11.10.90.80.70.60.50.50.50.50.50.50.60.70.8

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