Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bayou L'Ourse, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:53PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 3:13 AM CDT (08:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:01PMMoonset 12:48PM Illumination 56% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ455 Coastal Waters From Lower Atchafalaya River To Intracoastal City La Out 20 Nm- 931 Pm Cdt Mon Sep 27 2021
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers late in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 931 Pm Cdt Mon Sep 27 2021
Synopsis.. Light to moderate onshore winds will prevail through the week. A series of upper disturbances passing over texas will keep scattered to at times widespread showers and storms over the coastal waters through much of this week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayou L'Ourse, LA
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location: 29.67, -91     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 280449 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1149 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021

AVIATION (06z TAF package).

Currently VFR at all forecast terminals, although starting to see a few clouds below FL020. There are lower conditions across southwest Louisiana with IFR ceilings there. Expect that we will see build down of clouds later tonight, with low end MVFR or IFR ceilings likely at most terminals by about 10-11z. Threat of low ceilings (below FL010) is somewhat more likely than low visibilities. Low ceilings should lift to around FL020 by mid- morning. Convective threat should increase by mid to late morning, as the LIX 00z sounding this evening already showed that any capping inversion is pretty much history. For now, will carry VCTS at all terminals for a good portion of the day with dissipation around sunset. Low conditions probable to redevelop toward sunrise Wednesday at KBTR/KMCB/KHDC, but that's beyond the forecast valid time for this package at those terminals. 35

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 938 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021/

EVENING UPDATE .

Bottom line up front, no updates are imminent, but can't rule out the need for one overnight.

As winds have turned onshore, moisture has returned with a vengeance the last 12 hours. Dew points have soared into the lower and mid 70s across much of the area. The 00z LIX sounding also supports this, as precipitable water values that were around 2/3 of an inch at this time last night, have increased to 1.85 inches this evening. Still a few showers lurking around, mainly over Plaquemines Parish.

Most of the convection allowing models are not showing much in the way of convective development overnight, with the WRF-NSSL being the exception. At this time, not going to make any adjustments to the PoPs for the overnight period unless there is additional development.

Breaks in cloud cover may allow temperatures to fall to the currently forecast lows. If there would be a forecast trend, it'd be to bump lows up a degree or two. Don't see many, if any, locations in the area west of a McComb to Slidell line falling below 70 degrees tonight. 35

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 316 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night) . Weak upper level difluence over the area today has combined with a region of increased moisture advection to produce widely scattered convection this afternoon. This convection has been primarily confined to the offshore waters west of the Mississippi River where the pool of available moisture and highest MLCAPE values reside. This convective activity is expected to dissipate this evening as daytime heating wanes and instability values decrease. For much of the rest of the night, a largely dry forecast is expected across the forecast area. In fact, enough low level stability will be in place to foster a period of low stratus and patchy fog development around daybreak tomorrow over portions of Baton Rouge, Southwest Mississippi, and the Northshore.

Conditions will turn more unsettled during the late morning and afternoon hours tomorrow as the combination of continued weak upper level difluence and forcing interacts with an increasingly unstable environment. This increased instability will be the direct result of continued mid-level moisture advection into the area on the western and northwest side of a mid-level ridge axis. As moisture values increase in the mid-levels, temperatures should cool and lapse rates will increase. These steeper lapse rates will support increased MLCAPE values of over 1000 J/KG, and this will foster shower and thunderstorm development through the afternoon hours. No well defined synoptic scale boundaries are expected to be in place, so any convection will tend to form along weak mesoscale boundaries like seabreeze fronts or pre-existing outflows. Given these parameters, have higher POP of 50 to 70 percent forecast across the area tomorrow afternoon.

There are indications that a fairly vigorous vorticity maxima will slide through the forecast area tomorrow night, and this upper level feature will keep enough deep layer forcing in place to support continued scattered shower and thunderstorm activity through the overnight hours. The one limiting factor will be a decrease in MLCAPE as temperatures dip to around 70 degrees, and this may lead to some of the inland portions of the forecast seeing POP values fall to 20 percent or less late in the night as temperatures cool.

All of the guidance is in decent agreement on another strong vorticity max and an associated band of showers and thunderstorms sweeping into the forecast area by late Wednesday morning and then slowly sweeping east through the area into the evening hours. Although dynamics are not particularly impressive with this system, model soundings are supportive of the potential for a few sub-severe strong wind events. Precipitable water values will likely peak Wednesday afternoon, and some locally heavy downpours are also anticipated. Rainfall is not expected to exceed flash flood guidance, but some ponding in a few spots could occur. The convective activity should begin to slowly dissipate through the late evening hours as the greatest forcing lifts to the north of the region. However, some lingering isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will likely persist through the overnight hours given the high PW values and weak omega still in place in the mid and upper levels.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday) . The overall forecast for the extended time frame is expected to dry back out. While PoPs do climb up into the into the 80% range on Thursday, primarily in the western zones, they quickly back off into 30% range over the weekend. High temps remain in the 80s and winds continue to be light.

At the start of the period the models/ensembles do show that the CWA is under a high amplitude ridge, with the axis reaching into the Great Lakes region. In addition to this, there are several troughs moving through at the upper level, helping to increase the PoPs and break down the ridge. While there has been some uncertainty on the exact nature of how the ridge does break down, it is expected to break. As the period processes, the high does start to center near the Gulf Coast. While the models and ensembles do vary in where the placement of the ridge is and the amplitude of it, they are in agreement that the area is dominate by high pressure, and our lower level winds shift to more of an westerly pattern. With the bulk of the guidance keeping that westerly flow though, the lower PWATs and PoPs indicate a drier pattern. -KO

AVIATION . Primary concern through the morning hours is the potential for an inversion to form later tonight. This inversion could lead to a period of IFR or lower conditions at KBTR, KMCB, KHDC, and KASD as low stratus and patchy fog develops. The inversion is expected to mix out after 15z, and this will lead to improving conditions with a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions in place by 18z. However, increased instability will support the development of thunderstorms after 18z tomorrow with the highest risk around KBTR, KHUM, and KMSY. PG

MARINE . Prevailing southeast flow of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 3 feet or less are expected to continue through the end of the week. This pattern will be driven by a broad surface high centered over the Southeastern states. Overall, no significant impacts to maritime operations are expected this week, but thunderstorm activity could produce brief periods of gusty winds and higher seas at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 68 85 70 82 / 10 70 40 80 BTR 71 85 71 84 / 10 70 50 90 ASD 70 85 70 84 / 10 70 40 80 MSY 74 85 74 84 / 10 70 50 80 GPT 71 83 72 82 / 10 50 30 70 PQL 68 85 70 85 / 10 40 20 60

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 13 mi56 min ESE 1 G 1.9 76°F 80°F1015.6 hPa
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 23 mi56 min SE 2.9 G 6 79°F 82°F1015.1 hPa
EINL1 29 mi56 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 80°F 79°F1014.8 hPa80°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 32 mi56 min 78°F 78°F1015.8 hPa
CARL1 49 mi56 min 81°F

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patterson Memorial, LA18 mi18 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F74°F100%1015.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPTN

Wind History from PTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3NE4CalmNE6NE4E6E5SE7S5E9SE6E11E5SE8SE7S7S5SE3SE6SE5SE4SE3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6NE6E6N7E7E6CalmSE5SE4S4SE3E3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalm--N4N6N9N8N8N965NE7NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Island, Louisiana
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Shell Island
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Tue -- 04:12 AM CDT     1.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:31 PM CDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:58 PM CDT     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.81.81.81.81.81.81.71.61.51.41.210.80.60.50.50.60.60.80.91.11.31.5

Tide / Current Tables for Eugene Island, Louisiana
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Eugene Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:53 AM CDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:07 PM CDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:58 PM CDT     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.42.42.42.42.32.22.11.91.81.51.20.90.70.70.70.80.91.11.31.61.82.12.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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