Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Park, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 5:58PM Wednesday January 19, 2022 3:51 AM EST (08:51 UTC) Moonrise 7:38PMMoonset 8:53AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 806 Pm Est Tue Jan 18 2022 /706 Pm Cst Tue Jan 18 2022/
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers through the day.
Thursday night..West winds 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the late evening. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Friday night..North winds 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers.
Saturday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 806 Pm Est Tue Jan 18 2022
Synopsis.. Southerly breezes will freshen on Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure moves off the southeast u.s. Coast toward bermuda. A cold front will settle south on Thursday evening into the northeast gulf, then turn up stationary on Friday until it pushes further south on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Park, GA
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location: 30.72, -83.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 190545 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1245 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

AVIATION. [Through 06Z Thursday]

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will be SSE around 5 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION [805 PM EST].

NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday].

Surface high pressure will move off the southeast U.S. coast tonight on its way to Bermuda. Our low-level southerly will pick up late tonight and Wednesday, bringing a moderating trend. For inland areas, a light freeze is still expected for many places. The 12z HREF shows the possibility of some patchy fog around sunrise on Wednesday from Blountstown to Perry.

SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night].

Southerly flow off the Gulf will deepen low-level moisture. Then a cold front will push south through the area on Thursday afternoon and evening. It will stall out over the northern Gulf late Thursday night or Friday.

On its way through, some showers and rain are possible. Instability should be too weak for a severe threat, or really even a thunder threat. Temps will cool back down into the upper 30s and the 40s on in the post- frontal air mass northwest of Apalachicola-Tifton on Thursday night. Southeast of that line, the air mass will remain balmy, with low temps in the 50s.

LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday].

Models continue to back away from an already low risk of freezing rain within our forecast area north of an Enterprise-Albany- Fitzgerald line.

A sharp cold front will turn up stationary over the northern Gulf on Friday morning. Some guidance forms a low pressure wave along the front on Friday night, then scoots the low pressure wave across the northeast Gulf on Saturday. If the wave is toward the stronger end of the guidance members, then it could pull a shallow layer of sub-freezing air into area north of Enterprise-Albany before sunrise Saturday, possibly before precip ends. With warm mid-level air, this would lead to a few hours when the thermal profile would support freezing rain. This is still a big if. For example, the deterministic 12z GFS never cools temps below freezing. The GEFS ensemble mean has temps near 34F at DHN and ABY as precip is ending, meaning a cold rain and nothing more. The 12z ECMWF has colder temps but pushes precip out sooner, on Friday evening. The latter is our usual setup around here, where precip pushes out before cold air arrives. For now, have inserted -FZRA into the official forecast for the near-sunrise hours on Saturday, concurrent with somewhat low 20-30 percent PoPs. Ultimately, freezing rain is unlikely, but there's enough of a chance to make this a focus in the forecast.

High pressure will build in on Saturday, and the forecast will dry out, if it hasn't dried out already on Friday night.

Cool and dry weather will prevail through Monday, with a light freeze possible on Saturday night and Sunday night.

A southern stream wave will bring an increasing chance of showers next Tuesday, on Day 7.

MARINE.

Seas continue to subside after stormy conditions over the weekend. Buoys 42039 and 42036 now observe 2-foot and 3-foot seas respectively, with a subsiding trend still underway. Light breezes prevail this afternoon.

From the CWF synopsis . Southerly breezes will freshen on Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure moves off the Southeast U.S. coast toward Bermuda. A cold front will settle south on Thursday evening into the northeast Gulf, then turn up stationary on Friday until it pushes further south on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER.

A southeast and south breeze off the Gulf will return on Wednesday, improving dispersion while ushering in a moister air mass. Then a wetting rain is likely for most of our districts at some time on Thursday and/or Friday.

Fog Potential and Other Remarks . Patchy fog possible tonight inland of the Forgotten Coast. Areas of fog possible on Wednesday night over our Eastern Time Zone districts.

HYDROLOGY.

No flooding is expected for the next 7 days. Water from this past weekends rain continues to route down mainstem rivers. Headwaters have receded nicely, while levels on the lower reaches of mainstem rivers over Florida continue to rise.

The next round of rain is forecast around Thursday and Friday. Multi-day QPF of 1.5 inches or less will keep rivers on the high side, but it will not cause flooding.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 65 47 70 46 54 / 0 0 60 50 70 Panama City 66 56 69 43 51 / 0 10 70 50 70 Dothan 65 50 63 37 45 / 0 20 70 50 60 Albany 64 45 65 43 48 / 0 10 80 50 70 Valdosta 66 43 71 49 54 / 0 0 50 60 70 Cross City 68 46 72 54 64 / 0 0 10 30 50 Apalachicola 66 55 69 46 55 / 0 0 60 40 70

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

NEAR TERM . Haner SHORT TERM . Haner LONG TERM . Haner AVIATION . LF MARINE . Haner FIRE WEATHER . Haner HYDROLOGY . Haner


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 67 mi52 min NE 2.9G5.1 41°F 1024 hPa (-0.3)41°F
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 77 mi118 min NNE 2.9G4.1 44°F 1023.1 hPa
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 88 mi52 min 0G0 47°F 56°F1024.7 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Last 24 hr
1 day
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2 days
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdosta Regional Airport, GA9 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair34°F32°F92%1025 hPa
Moody Air Force Base, GA18 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair35°F31°F87%1023.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVLD

Wind History from VLD (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hr000000N76NE5N503300000000000
1 day ago454335NW7--66464--400--000000
2 days agoS13
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S12W86----SW7
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--646335343

Tide / Current Tables for Spring Warrior Creek, Florida
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Spring Warrior Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:58 AM EST     3.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:53 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:12 AM EST     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:31 PM EST     2.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:00 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:04 PM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Spring Warrior Creek, Florida, Tide feet
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2.4
1
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2.8
2
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3
3
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2.8
4
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2.3
5
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1.6
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0.8
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0.1
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-0.5
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-0.7
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-0.6
11
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-0.1
12
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0.7
1
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1.5
2
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2.3
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2.7
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2.7
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2.4
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1.9
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1.3
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0.9
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0.7
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0.9
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1.3


Tide / Current Tables for Rock Islands, Florida
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Rock Islands
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:04 AM EST     3.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:53 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:13 AM EST     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:37 PM EST     2.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:05 PM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Rock Islands, Florida, Tide feet
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2.4
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2.8
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2.9
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-0.5
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-0.7
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0.6
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1.5
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2.3
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2.7
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2.7
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2.4
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1.9
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1.4
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0.9
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0.7
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0.9
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1.3


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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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