Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Butterfield, TX

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:01PM Thursday September 23, 2021 11:10 AM MDT (17:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:45PMMoonset 8:17AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Butterfield, TX
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Area Discussion for -
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FXUS64 KEPZ 231117 AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 517 AM MDT Thu Sep 23 2021

. UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE .

AVIATION. 12Z TAF CYCLE . Mostly VFR conditions expected through the period. MVFR to IFR conditions possible near SHRA/-TSRA, especially west of the Continental Divide. An upper disturbance will be pushing high clouds towards us with CIGS slowly lowering through the day, especially over SW NM. Winds start light and VRB, then become from the south with speeds AOB 10kts around 18Z. Winds shift again to the SW after 00Z.

29

PREV DISCUSSION. 342 AM MDT Thu Sep 23 2021 .

SYNOPSIS. Settled conditions are in store for most of today before conditions turn semi-active mainly across the Bootheel area this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will return to our much area Friday through the middle of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered at times. The heaviest set of the rainfall will likely be across the high terrain. The high temperatures will be below the normal throughout the period.

DISCUSSION. SHORT TERM. Upper level clouds will continue to stream through the area from storms over in northern Mexico. A closed low over the Gulf of Baja will continue to push moisture towards us today, and over the next few days. Precip water increases from near half and inch to an inch by this afternoon as moisture moves in. Thus, chances for showers and thunderstorms return mainly west of the Rio Grande, but especially over the NM Bootheel. Not really expecting strong storms this afternoon as instability appears to be very marginal with MUCAPES below 300 J/kg. Again the NM Bootheel has the best chances for the strongest activity, but nothing major. The upper low will slowly push the ridge east, but we still get a decent warm up today, especially in the eastern portions of the CWA. Afternoon temperatures in El Paso will be in the upper 80s with the rest of the lowlands in the mid-80s.

By this evening, the upper low expands to the east resulting in a slight chance for showers and thunderstorm east of the Rio Grande. CAMs show multiple reflectivity members with showers out east, but nothing really significant this evening. The additional cloud cover tonight, will lead to slightly warmer morning low temperatures. By Friday morning, the upper low retrogrades back towards southern CA, but slight chances for precipitation remain across the area.

LONG TERM. An upper level disturbance will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday while a cut-off low rotates across the deep Southwest. There is still disagreement with the model solutions on the amount of QPF by then but definitely they both agree on a somewhat semi-active weather condition on Friday. By Saturday, conditions will continue to be somewhat active as the upper level cut-off low spins off the coast of Baja California advecting moisture into our area. As of now, the ECMWF suggest better moisture coverage than the GFS especially during the afternoon and evening hours; thus, a low chance for storms was introduced in the forecast. This event looks to be dynamically driven, so mostly showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday. The upper level low will gradually traverse the Southwest beginning the latter half of the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF does suggest this; however, the ECMWF has the low moving a little faster than what the GFS is suggesting. In any event, unsettled conditions are expected on Sunday as the center of the system draw nigh over our area. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day that may last into the early evening hours if there will be enough upper level support. The CAPE values will range between 250 and 1500 J/kg with marginal shear and a mid level lapse rate around 6.5 C/km. I'm not expecting any severe thunderstorms this weekend but a few strong storms are possible.

At the start of the next week, the center of the upper level low will be somewhere across New Mexico and Arizona. With upper level dynamics in place coupled with available moisture, showers and thunderstorms will continue across the the CWA. It will be difficult at this time to pin point where exactly storms will be the greatest as the models are not agreeing on the amount of QPF for Monday and Tuesday of next week. However, much of the precipitation will be across the high terrain where there will be better forcing. By Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, both models agree that this low will open up into a trough and eject into the the Central Plains. However, this is where it gets complicated by midweek, the GFS suggests that a broad trough will be present across the western half of the United States and an amplified ridge across to the east while the ECMWF suggest a shortwave trough across the New Mexico and west Texas with a shortwave ridge across the Upper Mississippi Valley and a trough across the East. If the trend leans towards the ECMWF, we will see additional rainfall through the end of next week; whereas, if it leans towards the GFS, then showers and thunderstorms will likely end by the first of the week with the exception possibly across the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains. Better model data in the next couple of days will iron out these uncertainties. The high temperatures throughout the period will be on the cool side.

FIRE WEATHER. An upper low over in the southwest brings chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly out west. This system increases the moisture content across the area, thus min RH values will be generally above 20%. Temperatures will warm up today to seasonal values, but return to slightly below normal tomorrow as the upper low increases the cloud cover across the region. Winds are expected to remain below any critical thresholds for the next several days. Ventilation rates continue to be mostly between the poor and good categories, but mostly fair across the area.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. El Paso 87 62 82 62 / 0 20 20 20 Sierra Blanca 84 58 78 56 / 0 20 30 20 Las Cruces 85 57 80 59 / 0 20 20 20 Alamogordo 86 58 81 58 / 0 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 64 45 63 42 / 0 20 30 0 Truth or Consequences 86 59 82 59 / 0 20 10 10 Silver City 79 55 76 55 / 10 30 30 20 Deming 87 55 81 56 / 10 30 20 20 Lordsburg 87 58 84 58 / 20 20 20 20 West El Paso Metro 87 66 85 64 / 0 20 20 20 Dell City 87 58 84 56 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 89 62 86 61 / 0 20 20 20 Loma Linda 83 59 77 57 / 0 20 20 20 Fabens 88 64 85 61 / 0 20 20 20 Santa Teresa 86 61 84 59 / 0 30 20 20 White Sands HQ 86 62 84 61 / 0 20 20 20 Jornada Range 86 60 82 58 / 0 20 20 20 Hatch 87 59 84 58 / 0 20 20 20 Columbus 86 61 83 59 / 20 30 20 20 Orogrande 86 60 83 58 / 0 20 10 10 Mayhill 75 51 73 47 / 0 20 30 0 Mescalero 75 49 74 46 / 0 20 20 0 Timberon 73 48 71 46 / 0 20 20 0 Winston 79 50 76 47 / 0 20 20 10 Hillsboro 83 58 81 56 / 10 20 20 20 Spaceport 85 58 83 56 / 0 20 20 10 Lake Roberts 79 48 76 48 / 10 30 30 20 Hurley 81 50 75 51 / 10 30 20 20 Cliff 86 53 84 51 / 10 20 20 20 Mule Creek 82 55 80 54 / 10 20 20 20 Faywood 81 56 79 55 / 10 30 20 20 Animas 86 58 83 56 / 20 30 20 20 Hachita 85 57 81 56 / 20 30 20 20 Antelope Wells 83 57 81 56 / 40 60 30 20 Cloverdale 79 55 76 55 / 40 50 30 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NM . None. TX . None.

29-Crespo/36-Texeira


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
El Paso, El Paso International Airport, TX20 mi19 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F42°F29%1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KELP

Wind History from ELP (wind in knots)
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