Friday, January28, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Galena, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:19PM Friday January 28, 2022 7:17 AM EST (12:17 UTC) Moonrise 3:55AMMoonset 1:21PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 635 Am Est Fri Jan 28 2022
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm est this evening through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from Saturday morning through late Saturday night...
Today..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of snow this morning, then snow with a slight chance of rain this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NW winds 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt... Increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
ANZ500 635 Am Est Fri Jan 28 2022
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Strong low pressure will develop off the carolinas and move northward off the coast tonight into Saturday. High pressure is expected to return Sunday through Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Galena, MD
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location: 39.37, -75.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 281132 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 632 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

SYNOPSIS. A strong coastal storm developing off the Southeast coast will lift just off the east coast through Saturday night. High pressure returns for the end of the weekend and early next week. Another low pressure system may approach our region late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. No significant changes with this update. A cold front extended across the eastern Great Lakes region this morning. The boundary will sink to the southeast and it is forecast to reach the Poconos early this afternoon. The front will continue to work its way through the rest of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and into eastern Maryland and Delaware late in the day. It should eventually begin to be absorbed into the developing circulation around the strengthening low moving up the East Coast.

Some light precipitation is drifting northeastward out of the Ohio River Valley across portions of Pennsylvania, in advance of the cold front. It is separate from the significant precipitation event that will impact our region tonight into Saturday. This initial shot of light precipitation should spread into eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey this morning, before expanding southeastward into eastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey this afternoon.

The expected temperature profiles suggest areas of light snow for much of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey with a light dusting possible during the daylight hours. Boundary layer temperatures should warm enough in much of eastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey for this afternoon to cause much of this initial shot of precipitation to be areas of light rain at those locations.

Even though we are anticipating a cloudy sky for today, the general southwest flow ahead of the approaching boundary will likely allow temperatures to rise into the upper 30s and lower 40s in eastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the lower and middle 30s in much of southeastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, with readings not getting above the 20s in the Poconos.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/.

. Major winter storm expected to affect much of the region Friday night and Saturday .

Bottom Line Up Front: Rest of winter storm watch upgraded to winter storm warning. Warning expanded to include Hunterdon and Morris Counties in NJ. Coastal counties of NJ and the coastal strip of Sussex County DE upgraded to a blizzard warning. Winter weather advisory issued in a narrow corridor to the west of the winter storm warning (Chester County PA to Sussex County NJ). Wind chill advisory issued for the southern Poconos for Saturday night.

And if you followed all of that .

From a forecasting standpoint, the good news is that models are steadily converging on the overall evolution of the winter storm anticipated to affect much of our area during the short-term period. Models continue to exhibit two important trends that are becoming more favorable for significant snowfall in the eastern half or so of the CWA. (1) A southern-stream vort max is trending faster in its migration eastward from the southern Plains on Friday. (2) A northern-stream digging vort max is trending slightly slower and stronger/deeper. The NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and CMC are all trending in this direction (to varying degrees and with somewhat varying consistency) with both phenomena, as well as respective ensembles. This has led to a general westward shift in the surface low just off the East Coast attendant to the more quickly phasing large-scale trough in the eastern U.S. Friday night and Saturday (as well as a noticeably deeper and more negatively-tilted trough). Consensus snowfall totals are beginning to increase in areas to the south and east of the Fall Line, and confidence continues to increase that warning-level snow will occur in much if not most of the winter storm watch area. As a result, have upgraded remaining portions of the watch to a warning on this shift.

The forecasting challenges tonight have been associated with the margins. For example, how much will snowfall totals decrease on the northwest periphery of the precipitation shield? Well, guidance suggests that this cutoff will be quite sharp, which is unsurprising given the strong push of cold/dry air on the northwest side of the synoptic system. There will likely be a very narrow corridor (read: around or less than 30 miles) where totals go from warning levels to sub-advisory levels, and confidence remains considerably lower on where this corridor will set up. Given the westward shift with the guidance in general the past 24 hours, this looks to be roughly near or more likely a little southeast of the Fall Line (at this time anyway; we will see how this forecast shifts the next couple of cycles). As a result, the adjoining winter weather advisory is for a narrow geographic region: Chester County PA to Sussex County NJ. Forecast snow totals drop off quickly to sub-advisory levels for the Lehigh Valley, southern Poconos, and Berks County; therefore, no advisory was issued for these areas at this time.

Another margin: Will portions of the region reach blizzard criteria? Short-range ensemble guidance strongly suggests the near-coast will feature several hours with winds above 30 mph and visibilities near or below a quarter mile. It will be increasingly tough to do farther inland, but think this threat spills into the eastern portions of the inland coastal zones of New Jersey. As a result, have upgraded the winter storm warning in these areas to a blizzard warning. Notably, inland Sussex County in Delaware remains in a winter storm warning, owing to increased uncertainty that these conditions will spill into much more than the immediate Atlantic coast. Blizzard conditions are very tough to meet (reaching the above conditions for 3+ hours), but even if they fall just short in the blizzard-warning area, conditions are very likely to be quite hazardous, with nearly- impossible travel expected.

The next margin discussed here is the winds themselves. Speeds exceeding 25-30 mph are pretty likely for much of the day on Saturday, with only a slow drop-off expected Saturday night. Gusts of 40+ mph are quite possible, especially in the Poconos and near the coast. Winter products will cover the winds along the coast, but the Poconos will not reach snow criteria. However, with temperatures falling in the cold-advection regime in the wake of the coastal low, very low wind chills are expected Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Confidence is high that advisory conditions will be reached in the southern Poconos. Have gone ahead and hoisted a wind chill advisory Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

The final margin is associated with QPF and snow ratios. QPF is trending a little higher across the region, as to be expected with the westward shift in model consensus. Snow ratios will be very high (much greater than 10:1), thanks to the antecedent cold thermodynamic profiles; however, guidance looks a little too bullish in general with these values, based on past experience. It will be interesting how these two forecast fields play out over the course of the event, as this will have pretty significant implications on snow totals near the coast (where the highest QPF exists) and near the northwest fringe of the snow shield (where the highest snow ratios exist, and where uncertainty in QPF is highest). My current feeling is that totals on the coast may be a little on the high side given a potential positive snow-ratio forecast bias, but may be a little on the low side in the northwest CWA (where snow ratios may be higher, and where forecasts have trended west with QPF in recent model suites).

Bottom line here: even though confidence in the overall evolution of the storm is increasing, there are still very challenging aspects to the winter storm that may have significant implications on the overall impacts of the system location to location. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts, as substantial changes may still occur.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Overview: Tranquil conditions are expected for much of the long term as a surface high slides over the region at the beginning of the week. By mid week, a low pressure system lifting northeast out of the lower Mississippi Valley.

Details:

Sunday . pressure gradient should decrease quickly Sunday Morning, and should see a subsequent decrease in wind speeds as well. None the less, low level flow will generally stay northwesterly and westerly through the day, meaning there will be little opportunity for warm air advection on Sunday. As a result, temperatures across the region are likely to stay below freezing Sunday and Sunday night. However, mostly sunny conditions early in the day may help somewhat with snow melt. For Sunday night, have stayed close to a blend of guidance for low temperatures. Increasing clouds (in response to a weak mid level short wave trough passing over the region) will act against efficient radiational cooling, though expansive snow field could mean that the guidance is too warm.

Monday and Tuesday . Surface high slides over the region Monday into Tuesday. Another weak mid level short wave trough may cross the region late Monday into Monday night, but will little opportunity for moisture advection ahead of it, we aren't expecting any precipitation with it. We'll start to see a modest warming trend on Monday, but a much more significant warming trend going into Tuesday as a mid level ridge briefly builds over the region. By Tuesday, highs should be mostly in the 40s (with the exception of the southern Poconos and NW NJ, which may stay in the 30s).

Wednesday and Thursday . From Wednesday into Thursday, will be watching a low which now looks like it will develop over the lower Mississippi Valley lift northeast into western New England. This is a slightly further east track than what much of the deterministic models were depicting yesterday, so will be watching closely to see if this trend continues. For now though, this track would mean the warming trend would continue especially Wednesday night into Thursday when the warm front associated with this low would lift through our region. With this track, our region would be within the warm sector during most of the period when we were expecting precipitation, so it would likely be mostly, if not all, rain. Two things that could change this are a northern stream low crossing southern Canada Tuesday into Wednesday and the trend east with the main low. If the northern stream low digs further southeast, or if the center of the main low passes east of our region, we could see dramatically different outcomes from the current forecast. That being said, there is surprisingly good agreement between most of the deterministic models on the current solution, so will stay close to a blend of guidance in this period for now.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR will start the period. Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR primarily for KRDG, KABE, KILG, KPHL, KPNE, and KTTN between 15 and 21Z. Some light snow may result in MVFR visibility restrictions between 12 and 20Z at KRDG, KABE, and KTTN. KMIV and KACY should remain VFR for much of the day. Winds will be light through out this period, but the direction will be changing from southwesterly to northwesterly to northerly. Moderate confidence on most aspects of the forecast, but low confidence with the timing and extent of MVFR conditions along with light snow coverage.

Friday night . Although conditions will begin MVFR, or even VFR, widespread and prolonged IFR conditions are expected to develop between 03 and 09Z for KACY, KMIV, KILG, KPHL, KPNE, and KTTN. IFR ceilings along with IFR visibility restrictions in snow are possible. Periods of LIFR conditions will be possible with moderate to heavy snow and even blowing snow especially at KACY and KMIV. For KRDG and KABE, the heaviest snow should stay east of these terminals, but occasional IFR conditions will still be possible.

Outlook .

Saturday into Saturday night . IFR conditions are likely to continue through the morning for most TAF sites, but we should start to see improvement to VFR from west (starting at KRDG and KABE) to east (KACY and KTTN may be the last to improve). Northwest winds 10 to 25 kt, with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing late Saturday night. Moderate confidence.

Sunday through Tuesday . VFR conditions are expected. Winds starting northwesterly at 5 to 15 kt, but becoming light and variable by Sunday afternoon continuing through Tuesday. Moderate confidence

MARINE. A southwest wind near 10 knots this morning is forecast to become northwest to north for this afternoon as a cold front pushes southeast toward the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware. Wave heights on our ocean waters should be around 2 feet, with waves on Delaware Bay at 2 feet or less.

Outlook .

Friday night through Saturday night . Rapid deterioration in conditions likely Friday night, as northeast winds quickly increase during the evening. At least advisory conditions expected by late evening, with gales developing on all waters overnight; the previously issued gale warning remains in effect.

Winds will become north to northwest on Saturday, with gusts exceeding 40-45 kt likely. Storm conditions appear increasingly probable off the northern and central NJ coast. Have issued a storm warning off Monmouth/Ocean Counties for Saturday, while the rest of the waters retain gale-warning status. Winds should peak during the afternoon and early evening, with a gradual diminishing trend late Saturday night. Gales will likely continue through the night. Additionally, heavy snow is likely late Friday night through at least Saturday afternoon. Visibility restrictions are likely. Finally, with increasingly cold air and strong northwest winds on Saturday night, freezing spray is likely to develop, primarily close to the coast. A freezing spray advisory has been issued for all waters Saturday night.

Sunday through Tuesday . once winds and seas drop below 25 kt and 5 ft later in the day on Sunday, winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria through Tuesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The potential for minor tidal flooding along much of the New Jersey and Delaware coastline on Saturday morning has increased based on the latest track of the forecast northeaster.

A north northeast wind is expected to develop this evening, with wind speeds increasing to 25 to 35 MPH late tonight. Ekman transport will push water toward the coast. The period of time with an onshore push leading up to Saturday morning's high tide will be somewhat limited (less than 12 hours). However, it should be a long enough duration to produce the surge of +1.2 to +1.4 feet needed to begin causing minor flooding along the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey. The ETSS guidance has been coming into better agreement with the NYHOPS forecasts as the GFS model has been trending westward with the track of the low.

Based on the latest guidance, it appears as though widespread minor tidal flooding is likely in our coastal counties from Ocean in New Jersey, southward to Sussex in Delaware. Those counties have been placed under a Coastal Flood Advisory. Only spotty minor flooding is anticipated for Monmouth County in New Jersey, and for Kent County in Delaware. Based on the expected wind direction and duration of the onshore flow, no flooding is forecast along Raritan Bay, along the New Jersey side of Delaware Bay, along the tidal Delaware River or on the upper eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay.

Even as the wind backs to the northwest for Saturday evening, water levels along the coast should remain elevated. Saturday evening's high tide is the lower of the two daily high tides, so no flooding is expected at that time.

The guidance continues to hinting at a lingering round of spotty minor flooding with Sunday morning's high tide before the water begins to drain away from the coast.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for PAZ070-071-104-106. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Saturday for PAZ101>103-105. Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for PAZ054-055. NJ . Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for NJZ008>010-012-015>019-021. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Saturday for NJZ020-022>027. Blizzard Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for NJZ013-014-020-022>027. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Saturday for NJZ001-007. DE . Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for DEZ003. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Saturday for DEZ003-004. Blizzard Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for DEZ004. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Saturday for DEZ001-002. MD . Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Saturday for MDZ012-015-019-020. MARINE . Freezing Spray Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to noon EST Sunday for ANZ430-431-450>455. Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ430-431-452>455. Storm Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ450-451. Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ450-451.

Synopsis . Johnson Near Term . Iovino Short Term . CMS Long Term . Johnson Aviation . Johnson Marine . CMS/Iovino/Johnson Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 13 mi48 min 0G1 29°F 33°F1021.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi48 min E 1.9G4.1 31°F 35°F1020.7 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 23 mi48 min 0G0 29°F 35°F1021.3 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 23 mi48 min 28°F 34°F1020.7 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 30 mi48 min SSW 8G8.9 31°F 34°F1022 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 33 mi48 min N 2.9G2.9 32°F 1020.7 hPa
FSNM2 33 mi48 min N 1G1.9 32°F 1019.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 35 mi48 min 0G0 32°F 37°F1020.2 hPa
CPVM2 36 mi48 min 35°F 27°F
44063 - Annapolis 39 mi36 min WSW 1.9G1.9 32°F 35°F1021.4 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 40 mi48 min N 1G1.9 33°F 36°F1020 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 41 mi48 min 31°F 35°F1020.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 42 mi78 min SE 1.9G2.9 33°F 36°F1021 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD14 mi80 minN 09.00 miOvercast27°F23°F86%1021.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hr000S6S5SW8SW6SW9SW8S4SW6000SW3S4S3S3000000
1 day ago00N4NW4NW8NW9N9NW8NW9N7NW70N300000000000
2 days ago--SW400NE4NE55N9
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Tide / Current Tables for Betterton, Maryland
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Betterton
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:00 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:38 AM EST     0.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:34 AM EST     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:21 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:49 PM EST     1.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Betterton, Maryland, Tide feet
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Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:50 AM EST     1.81 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:06 AM EST     -0.10 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:55 AM EST     -2.32 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:57 PM EST     0.09 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:19 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:57 PM EST     2.17 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:45 PM EST     -0.07 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:41 PM EST     -1.23 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:56 PM EST     0.06 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current, knots
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