Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Madaket, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:46PM Wednesday January 19, 2022 2:35 AM EST (07:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:24PMMoonset 9:25AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madaket, MA
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location: 40.5, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 190609 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 109 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

SYNOPSIS.

A ridge of high pressure builds into New England tonight, then moves offshore Wednesday. Windy and mild weather is in store Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. The front moves to the south with a wave of low pressure developing on the front with rain changing to snow late Wednesday night into Thursday with minor accumulations, especially south of the Mass Pike. Very cold Thursday night with subzero wind chills in interior Southern New England. High pressure with dry weather Friday. A coastal or ocean storm may affect Southern New England this weekend but any impacts will depend on the storm's track. Below normal temperatures continue into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/.

105 AM Update .

Ridge axis was moving across the region very early this morning. Mainly clear skies/light winds have resulted in excellent radiational cooling conditions. Temps were generally in the teens to lower 20s and readings may fall a few more degrees. A few of the normally coldest outlying locations will likely bottom out in the high single digits.

These low temps will likely occur in the next few hours with temps leveling off and even rising a bit toward daybreak. This a result of warm advection aloft commencing bringing an increase in mid/high clouds as the high moves east of the region. Better forcing/moisture will be across northern New England. Therefore, dry weather will generally prevail, but a few brief flurries can not be ruled out in far northern MA near daybreak generally north of Route 2.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/.

Wednesday .

SNE will be in between high pres to the east and an approaching cold front from the Gt Lakes with strong SW flow. In fact, 50-60 kt 850 mb jet develops with 45-50 kt down to 925 mb across SE New Eng. Soundings show a shallow but well mixed boundary layer supportive of mixing a lot of this wind down to the surface in SE New Eng. Gusts up to 50 mph possible across Cape/Islands into SE coastal MA where wind advisories will be issued. Gusts to 30-40 mph are expected further back to the west.

A period of clouds will be moving through during the morning and can't rule out a few flurries in western MA, otherwise expect partly sunny skies with a nice recovery in temps during the afternoon. Highs will range from upper 30s higher terrain to mid/upper 40s in the coastal plain.

Wednesday night .

Cold front drops south into SNE overnight, clearing the south coast by daybreak. The northern stream shortwave moving through the Gt Lakes amplifies the flow a bit with an anafrontal wave developing to the south by Thu morning. It does appear there will be a swath of light precip developing along and behind the front late Wed night into Thu as the column saturates with modest low level frontogenesis. The mostly likely areas to see precip will be along and south of the Pike, although the northern extent of precip is somewhat uncertain and could shift further S or N as these anafrontal waves have a short predictability horizon. Precip will likely begin as rain across RI/SE MA with light snow further to the north and west. Rain will change to snow 09-12z as colder air drains southward. Accums of a coating to an inch are possible by daybreak away from the south coast, with additional minor accum possible Thu morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.

Highlights:

* Thursday Afternoon/Evening: Ocean effect snow likely for the outer Cape and Nantucket.

* Very cold conditions Thursday night into Friday morning. Some areas could see wind chill headlines.

* Lots of uncertainty with a possible weekend coastal storm.

Thursday morning into Friday:

Light snow continues south of the Mass Pike into late Thursday morning and dissipating as the cold front clears the coast around lunch-time. But, as the wind goes from northwest to north/northeast the outer Cape and Nantucket are subject to ocean affect snow showers. Bufkit soundings show lapse rates at the surface which will help produce on and off snow showers into Thursday evening. The thinking is still a general coating to an inch or two south of the Mass Pike.

Vast area of high pressure over the northern Great Lakes expands into southern New England overnight and starts to erode the cloud over. Thursday night into Friday morning will be COLD! Given the clearing sky cover we went with a blend of the 10th percentile of the NBM and the CONSMOS, which yields low temperatures -10F to 0F north of the Mass Pike and 0F to 15F south of the Mass Pike to the coast . the Cape and Islands remain in the upper teens to low 20s.

With northerly winds around 10 knots we may need wind chill headlines north and west of Worcester and eastern slopes of the Berkshires.

Cold and dry for the most part on Friday. The only exception would be for the Cape and Nantucket, there could be a few lingering ocean effect snow flurries. Otherwise, a 1040 high over the Saint Lawrence River Valley brings us a quiet weather day with afternoon temperatures in the teens and 20s and apparent temperatures below zero to 10/15 degrees above zero.

Saturday into Sunday:

A pain of a forecast. We are continuing to monitor the threat for a weekend storm . will it be a block buster or a glancing blow is still to be determined.

Forecast guidance continues to be rather low for the day 4 and 5, unfortunately. Given the uncertainty and the large swing in model output I've decided to run with the NBM for now. Hopefully, there will be stronger agreement between the models heading into the next day or two.

The latest 12z guidance shows a miss from the ensemble GFS with only a small number of the its members showing some type of coastal storm in southern New England. As for the ECMWF ensemble, there are a couple more of its members that show some type of a coastal storm late Saturday into Sunday.

As you can see it is still very messy. More information to come!

Monday and Tuesday:

Given the forecast challenges previously mentioned I didn't deviate from the NBM. So far it does look dry through Tuesday and day time temperatures area expected to be below normal in the 20s.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06z Update .

Today . High Confidence. VFR with just mid/high level cloudiness particularly in the morning. SW wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots developing by afternoon with a few gusts up to 40 knots along the far southeast New England coast.

This Evening . High Confidence. Mainly VFR this evening as gusty southwest winds gradually diminish.

Overnight and Thursday . Moderate Confidence. MVFR and eventually IFR conditions will develop between 08z and 12z near and south of the MA Turnpike in snow or rain changing to snow. IFR conditions will persist much of Thu am south of the MA Turnpike and perhaps mid afternoon or so towards the southeast New England coast. Improvement to VFR will occur as the day wears along from northwest to southeast. A general 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected for areas near and south of the MA Turnpike into mid afternoon Thursday. Winds will shift to the NW at 5 to 15 knots.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Greatest risk for a period of accumulating snow will be from 10z to 16z Thursday. A coating to 2 inches possible.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Greatest risk for a period of accumulating snow will be from 09z to 15z Thursday. A coating to 2 inches possible.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SN.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SN.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tonight . High Confidence. Gale force NW winds will diminish through this evening becoming light overnight as high pres builds into the waters.

Wednesday . High Confidence. Another period of gales from the SW expected Wed afternoon as a strong low level jet develops. Gusts to 35-40 kt expected with seas building to 10 ft over south coastal open waters. Gale warning will be needed for this period.

Wednesday night . High confidence. Gusty SW winds diminishing overnight.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain likely, chance of snow. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of snow, chance of freezing spray. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of freezing spray, slight chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of snow. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of snow. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Slight chance of snow. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for MAZ019-021>024. RI . Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for RIZ008. MARINE . Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/Gaucher NEAR TERM . Frank SHORT TERM . KJC LONG TERM . Gaucher AVIATION . Frank/Gaucher MARINE . KJC/Gaucher


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi39 min 48°F5 ft
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 61 mi47 min WNW 7G12 27°F 36°F1022.2 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 66 mi35 min 1022.9 hPa (+1.0)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 71 mi35 min WNW 18G19 28°F 36°F1022 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last 24 hrW12
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA60 mi42 minWNW 910.00 miFair27°F6°F41%1021.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACK

Wind History from ACK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE28
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SE22S14S10SW16
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2 days agoN9N8N5N4N3N4N4NE4NE5NE7E7E5SE10SE10SE9SE15SE15
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Tide / Current Tables for No Man's Land, Massachusetts
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No Man's Land
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:55 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:21 AM EST     3.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:37 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:42 PM EST     2.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

No Man's Land, Massachusetts, Tide feet
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Tide / Current Tables for No Man's Land, Massachusetts (2)
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No Man's Land
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:56 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:16 AM EST     3.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:35 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:37 PM EST     2.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

No Man's Land, Massachusetts (2), Tide feet
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1.7


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