Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elmont, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 5:57PM Thursday October 28, 2021 5:02 PM EDT (21:02 UTC) Moonrise 11:55PMMoonset 2:26PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 405 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from Friday evening through late Friday night...
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 25 to 30 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain likely in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 405 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure centered north of the area will be in control tonight. Low pressure approaches on Friday and impacts the region Friday night through Saturday. Low pressure exits the area on Sunday, followed by high pressure building in through midweek.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elmont, NY
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location: 40.7, -73.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 281958 CCA AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 358 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure centered north of the area will be in control tonight. Low pressure approaches on Friday and impacts the region Friday night through Saturday. Low pressure exits the area on Sunday, followed by high pressure building in through midweek. A frontal system may impact the area late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Low level moisture trapped beneath an inversion will lock in cloud cover for coastal areas. Partly cloudy for most inland areas. Frost/freeze considerations for the northern interior zones get complicated by the potential of some cirrus. Not enough confidence for any freeze headlines, but with some periods of clear conditions and light to calm winds, there will probably areas of frost. Still, not enough confidence that it would remain clear long enough for widespread frost across more than half of a zone, so will hold off on frost advisories, but will have areas of frost mentioned in the forecast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/. High pressure centered to our north shifts east on Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley. Remaining on the cloudy side for coastal areas, with inland areas at least partly sunny through the morning before more clouds filter in.

Theta-e ridge and isentropic lift ahead of an occluded front approach the forecast area late in the day, and shift through during the night. At the same time, the increasing moisture interacts with lift supplied by a low level jet and the left-exit region of an upper jet streak. This will have rain chances ramping up SW to NE across the area starting late in day, with moderate to possibly heavy at times rainfall reaching all areas by shortly after midnight. CAPE will be modest, but enough to leave in a slight chance of thunder given the lift. Best chances for convection are towards midnight and the overnight hours.

After collaboration with WFO PHI, have decided to hold off on any Flash Flood/Flood Watches. Overall rain amount forecast is now lower than the previous forecast, and based on 1,3,6-hr FFG values, looks like we'll fall short on all 3 counts. Best chance would be if any convection develops and a half to three-quarters of an inch of rain falls within an hour in parts of NE NJ where FFG is lowest. Thinking that small river/stream flooding would have a better chance of occurring than urban flash flooding, but with that said, it would be just minor flooding that would need an advisory and likely not widespread moderate which would require warnings.

Breezy conditions develop late day and last through the night with a tightening pressure gradient, particularly for coastal areas. Some uncertainty regarding how strong sustained winds actually get in the absence of a strong low center, as well as uncertainty regarding how much winds from aloft can mix down to the surface when the convective threat is low. We can get close to wind advisory conditions for some coastal areas during the night for a couple of hours, but confidence is not high enough to go with an advisory at this time.

For Saturday, the center of the storm will be over western PA, but a secondary low is progged by most models to form offshore along the occluded/cold front. We'll still be near by the left-exit region of the jet streak with plenty of moisture in place, so periods of rain remain likely.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. By Saturday night the surface low should be centered somewhere over western Pennsylvania, with a secondary low forming near our area. As the associated upper low tracks farther north it opens up and transfers some of its energy to an upper low that is moving east over central Canada. As this happens, some shortwave energy rotating around the upper low near our area will move through overhead. With some left over moisture available some lingering showers will be possible throughout the day on Sunday. Have kept slight chance PoPs in the forecast for the whole area through the early afternoon, but expecting most of the area to remain dry through the day.

High pressure will build in behind the departing low through midweek, with brief height rises through Monday. Monday and Tuesday will be dry days, with plenty of sunshine Monday. Clouds increase west to east on Tuesday which will result in slightly lower highs. Some northwestern locations might not see highs out of the lower 50s. This cooling trend will continue with high temps even a bit lower Wednesday and Thursday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday looks like the next shot of rain over the area. Shortwave energy will pass overhead and with a decent amount of moisture available (Pwats ~1 inch) there could be a quick period of showers.

Uncertainty grows significantly heading into the end of the week. It is possible a coastal low forms near the area. The GFS, ECMWF and Canadian all suggest this. However, timing and location are very different between models. Have went with slight chance PoPs through Thursday due to this uncertainty.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Weak high pressure will briefly build from the north into Friday morning. A slow moving low pressure system then approaches from the southwest, with impacts Friday night into the weekend.

MVFR ceilings continue to impact portions of the forecast area, mainly from KJFK eastward. These ceilings may occasionally build westwards towards KHPN, KLGA, and KTEB/KEWR. There may be brief improvement overnight before conditions deteriorate through the day on Friday ahead of an approaching warm front.

Generally light NE-E winds strengthen to 10-15 kt into Friday, with gusts likely across the airspace by afternoon.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Amendments likely for ceilings.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Friday night. Rain with IFR conditions. E winds 15-20G25-30kt, highest NYC metro/coast. LLWS possible. Saturday. Showers with MVFR/local IFR conditions. Saturday night. Chance of showers with MVFR conditions. Sunday-Tuesday. Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. SCA continues across all ocean waters tonight and lasts through the day Friday with elevated seas. There could be a gust or two to gale force on the ocean toward evening, but the likelihood of frequent gales arrives in the evening, have therefore gone with a start time of 6pm Friday evening for a gale warning here. For the other waters, the pressure gradient tightens enough for SCA conds starting Friday afternoon, with advisory conditions lasting through Friday night. Will probably need to eventually extend the SCA into a portion of Saturday.

SCA conditions over the ocean waters are likely through the beginning of the week. Waves decrease from 7 to around 5 ft Sunday night, but then remain at 5 ft through Monday afternoon. Wind gusts during this time remain below SCA criteria, with gusts up to 15-20 kt possible across all waters. Winds and waves thereafter remain below SCA criteria.

HYDROLOGY. Moderate to locally heavy rain should arrive by Friday evening and continue into Saturday morning. Lighter rain may continue into Saturday afternoon. Rainfall totals should average from 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Minor urban flooding is the main threat along with fast-responding streams in NE NJ potentially reaching minor flooding thresholds, especially given the recent rainfall earlier this week. Although flash flooding cannot completely be ruled out, chances of this are low. If it were to occur, the best chance for this happening would be from around midnight night Friday night through daybreak Saturday.

No hydrologic impacts expected Sunday through Thursday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Water levels will remain high from residual tidal piling from the departing low pressure system through this afternoon, possibly lingering into tonight. Minor coastal flooding is is likely along the Great South Bay early this morning with high tide. More widespread minor coastal flooding is expected with this afternoons high tide along the shoreline of southern Nassau and southwest Suffolk. Water levels have also remained high across the Great South Bay and locally moderate flooding is possible, specifically near the western portion of the Bay, specifically near Lindenhurst. Statements have been issued for southern Queens, the Lower NY Harbor, and eastern Suffolk. Water levels may just touch minor thresholds with this afternoon's high tide.

Isolated minor coastal flooding is possible with tonight's high tide, specially around the south shore back bays as well as the Great South Bay. More widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flooding and high surf/beach erosion are possible with the next storm system Friday into Saturday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ179. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JC NEAR TERM . JC SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . JT AVIATION . MD MARINE . JC/JT HYDROLOGY . JC/JT TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 8 mi62 min SE 2.9G5.1 57°F 1014.5 hPa (-0.8)
44022 - Execution Rocks 13 mi47 min ENE 7.8G16 57°F 48°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 17 mi62 min 57°F 63°F1013.4 hPa (-1.2)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 19 mi47 min E 5.8G9.7 56°F 44°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 20 mi62 min S 8G9.9 56°F 1013 hPa (-1.3)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 23 mi32 min E 5.8G9.7 65°F1013 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 23 mi62 min E 6G7 56°F 62°F1013.8 hPa (-1.1)
BGNN6 24 mi62 min 58°F 65°F1013 hPa (-1.2)
MHRN6 25 mi62 min SE 7G8.9
44069 32 mi62 min ENE 5.8G9.7 54°F 78°F46°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 42 mi32 min 12G16 64°F1013 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 43 mi62 min NE 4.1G7 56°F 65°F1013.3 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY5 mi71 minSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F46°F70%1013.7 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY11 mi71 minENE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F43°F58%1013.1 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY15 mi71 minENE 710.00 miFair56°F44°F65%1013.2 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY16 mi69 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast55°F45°F69%1014 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ22 mi71 minE 710.00 miFair60°F44°F56%1012.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFK

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN13
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N11N12N8N6N8N11N10N10N9N11N9N7N6N6NW5N7NE9NE9NE500SE5SE7
1 day agoN5N5N6NW13N5N15
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2 days agoS12S11S10SE12SE10SE11SE9SW4NE7NE9NE21
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Tide / Current Tables for East Rockaway, Long Island, New York
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East Rockaway
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:33 AM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:09 AM EDT     1.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:28 PM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 05:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:35 PM EDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:03 AM EDT     0.75 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     -0.50 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:36 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:29 PM EDT     0.77 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:58 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 05:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:40 PM EDT     -0.50 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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