Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sag Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:59PM Saturday October 23, 2021 5:33 PM EDT (21:33 UTC) Moonrise 7:40PMMoonset 10:00AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 333 Pm Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
Tonight..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers until early morning.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the morning.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 333 Pm Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak surface trough will move across the area this evening, followed by weak high pressure building in from the west tonight into the first half of Sunday. The high gives way to an approaching warm front Sunday evening that stalls near the area on Monday. Low pressure affects the region Monday night into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sag Harbor, NY
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location: 41.02, -72.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 232005 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 405 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A weak surface trough will move across the area this evening, followed by weak high pressure building in from the west late tonight into the first half of Sunday. The high gives way to an approaching warm front Sunday evening that stalls near the area on Monday. Low pressure affects the region Monday night into Wednesday. Weak high pressure then briefly returns before another frontal system impacts the area Thursday night through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. A shortwave trough will move across the area early this evening with chance of showers and/or sprinkles. The greatest chance will be across the NYC metro and Long Island. Any rainfall that does fall will be brief and extremely light.

Thereafter, heights aloft gradually rise with weak surface high pressure building in from the west. Skies will clear with winds becoming more northerly behind a weak surface trough.

Lows will be mainly in the 40s, right about normal.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Confluent flow across the Northeast to start the day will result in surface high pressure building in the morning and then offshore by late afternoon. Winds will back around from light NW in the morning to SW by afternoon. Expect plenty of sun to start with mid and high level clouds moving in ahead of an approaching warm front in the afternoon.

Strong Pac jet energy racing across the mid section of the country will send a warm front across the Ohio Valley toward the area by evening and then across the area late Sunday night. The best thermal forcing will reside across the northern portions of the forecast area from the Hudson Valley east across southern CT, where a quarter to half an inch of rainfall is expected. To the south, mainly a tenth of an inch or less.

Highs on Sunday will be a bit warmer than Saturday, ranging from the upper 50s across the interior to the lower 60s at the coast. Milder lows will be on tap Sunday night due to a southerly flow and cloud cover. Lows will be in the mid 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. An unsettled pattern is expected for much of the long term period with multiple low pressure systems looking to impact the region through next weekend. Given the uncertainty among global models, chose to stick close to the NBM with minor adjustments.

A vigorous upper level shortwave approaches the area from the west on Monday with the area in the warm sector of the approaching surface cyclone allowing much of the day to be rain-free but cloudy. By the late afternoon and evening, widespread rain spreads over the region potentially becoming moderate to heavy at times. The surface cyclone approaching from the west merges with a secondary cyclone along the coast. There is substantial uncertainty from model-to-model and run-to- run where the axis of heaviest rain sets up as the surface low pressure spins somewhere over or very close to the area from Monday night and through much of the day on Tuesday. The cyclone remains fairly stationary as it occludes and continues to lift precipitation over the area. It's not until late Tuesday night or early Wednesday that the low pressure moves far enough east to prevent persistent rain. However, the upper level low is slow to move out, so showers remain a possibility through much of the day Wednesday. Overall, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be possible over a 24 to 36 hour period with locally higher amounts possible depending on the exact axis of heaviest rainfall.

A weak ridge looks to move over the area Wednesday night and into Thursday allowing there to be a dry but cloudy period. By Thursday night and Friday, another low pressure system approaches the area from the SW. While there is substantial disagreement in the timing and location of this system, models are consistent in the presence of a large low pressure system impacting the area into at least late Saturday.

Aside from Monday where highs are expected to be in the middle 60s to middle 70s, temperatures will be average for this time of year with highs each day remaining in the upper 50s to middle 60s much of the week.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A broad area of high pres will remain over the area thru Sun.

Mainly VFR. A period of light rain or shwrs is expected this eve which could briefly reduce cigs to around 3000 ft. The probability of MVFR however was too low to include in the TAFs attm.

Winds blw 10 kt thru the TAF period. WNW flow today veers to the NW thru this eve, then becomes SW aft 15z Sun.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

A few sprinkles possible til 21Z. Wind direction could be vrb at times due to the light flow.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Rest of Sun. VFR, then MVFR developing after 00Z with rain possible. Mon. MVFR or lower possible, especially Mon ngt with rain developing. Tue. IFR with rain possible. Strengthening winds possible depending on the track and intensity of low pres. Wed. Improvement to MVFR/VFR possible. Chance for gusty winds behind the low. Thu. MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. With a weak pressure gradient across the waters as high pressure builds into the area, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Sunday. A quickly ramping up southerly flow could bring SCA conditions to the ocean waters Sunday night into Monday.

Low pressure approaches Monday night and passes nearby or through the area waters on Tuesday. SCA conds likely on the ocean for winds and seas during this period. For the remainder of the waters during this time, there could be periods of gusts to 25 kt, largely depending on the eventual track of the storm's center. A narrow ridge of high pressure then attempts to build in behind the storm during Wednesday into Wednesday night. Winds diminish, but seas probably remain elevated due to a lingering swell. Another storm system is forecast for the end of the week, keeping seas above SCA criteria.

HYDROLOGY. A quarter to half inch of rainfall is likely Sunday night into Monday across the lower Hudson Valley and into interior southern Connecticut, with lower amounts to the south. This is in association with a warm frontal boundary.

Moderate rainfall amounts are possible with two storm systems next week. The first from Monday night through Wednesday morning and the second Friday into Saturday. At this time, the hydrologic impact potential is low for both systems due to the long period of time in which potential rain amounts would be falling.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . DW/MW NEAR TERM . DW SHORT TERM . DW LONG TERM . MW AVIATION . JMC MARINE . DW/MW HYDROLOGY . DW/MW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 17 mi45 min 58°F 65°F1013.2 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 23 mi53 min WNW 8G8.9 60°F 1012.2 hPa-19°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 26 mi23 min WNW 9.7G12 58°F 65°F1014 hPa45°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 26 mi45 min 59°F 64°F1013.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 38 mi45 min NW 6G7 59°F 65°F1013.5 hPa
44069 48 mi33 min W 7.8G9.7 59°F 78°F45°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi45 min WNW 2.9G7 59°F 66°F1013.2 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY20 mi39 minW 6 mi59°F45°F60%1013.5 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY22 mi40 minWNW 410.00 miLight Rain57°F45°F64%1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5SW4SW5W5W5N6N7N6N9N7N7N7NW7N8N7N5NW6NW6NW6NW7W5W6W7W6
1 day agoS55S7SW9
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2 days agoW6SW64SW6SW553W4SW40W3W4W40W40SW50SW6SW6SW7SW6SW9S6

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Cedar Point
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Sat -- 12:15 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:14 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:24 PM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 06:58 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:35 AM EDT     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:30 AM EDT     1.47 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:50 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:05 PM EDT     -1.60 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 06:45 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:59 PM EDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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