Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Vineyard Haven, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:41PM Wednesday January 19, 2022 2:47 AM EST (07:47 UTC) Moonrise 7:21PMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 127 Am Est Wed Jan 19 2022
.gale warning in effect from 11 am est this morning through this evening...
Rest of tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Snow with a chance of rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night and Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of light freezing spray. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat and Sat night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun and Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 127 Am Est Wed Jan 19 2022
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Ridge of high pres builds over the waters later tonight into Wed. A cold front to move over the waters on Thurs and may linger in the vicinity of the offshore southern waters Thurs night. Strong high pres builds over the waters Fri into Fri night. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vineyard Haven, MA
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location: 41.38, -70.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 190609 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 109 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

SYNOPSIS.

A ridge of high pressure builds into New England tonight, then moves offshore Wednesday. Windy and mild weather is in store Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. The front moves to the south with a wave of low pressure developing on the front with rain changing to snow late Wednesday night into Thursday with minor accumulations, especially south of the Mass Pike. Very cold Thursday night with subzero wind chills in interior Southern New England. High pressure with dry weather Friday. A coastal or ocean storm may affect Southern New England this weekend but any impacts will depend on the storm's track. Below normal temperatures continue into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/.

105 AM Update .

Ridge axis was moving across the region very early this morning. Mainly clear skies/light winds have resulted in excellent radiational cooling conditions. Temps were generally in the teens to lower 20s and readings may fall a few more degrees. A few of the normally coldest outlying locations will likely bottom out in the high single digits.

These low temps will likely occur in the next few hours with temps leveling off and even rising a bit toward daybreak. This a result of warm advection aloft commencing bringing an increase in mid/high clouds as the high moves east of the region. Better forcing/moisture will be across northern New England. Therefore, dry weather will generally prevail, but a few brief flurries can not be ruled out in far northern MA near daybreak generally north of Route 2.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/.

Wednesday .

SNE will be in between high pres to the east and an approaching cold front from the Gt Lakes with strong SW flow. In fact, 50-60 kt 850 mb jet develops with 45-50 kt down to 925 mb across SE New Eng. Soundings show a shallow but well mixed boundary layer supportive of mixing a lot of this wind down to the surface in SE New Eng. Gusts up to 50 mph possible across Cape/Islands into SE coastal MA where wind advisories will be issued. Gusts to 30-40 mph are expected further back to the west.

A period of clouds will be moving through during the morning and can't rule out a few flurries in western MA, otherwise expect partly sunny skies with a nice recovery in temps during the afternoon. Highs will range from upper 30s higher terrain to mid/upper 40s in the coastal plain.

Wednesday night .

Cold front drops south into SNE overnight, clearing the south coast by daybreak. The northern stream shortwave moving through the Gt Lakes amplifies the flow a bit with an anafrontal wave developing to the south by Thu morning. It does appear there will be a swath of light precip developing along and behind the front late Wed night into Thu as the column saturates with modest low level frontogenesis. The mostly likely areas to see precip will be along and south of the Pike, although the northern extent of precip is somewhat uncertain and could shift further S or N as these anafrontal waves have a short predictability horizon. Precip will likely begin as rain across RI/SE MA with light snow further to the north and west. Rain will change to snow 09-12z as colder air drains southward. Accums of a coating to an inch are possible by daybreak away from the south coast, with additional minor accum possible Thu morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.

Highlights:

* Thursday Afternoon/Evening: Ocean effect snow likely for the outer Cape and Nantucket.

* Very cold conditions Thursday night into Friday morning. Some areas could see wind chill headlines.

* Lots of uncertainty with a possible weekend coastal storm.

Thursday morning into Friday:

Light snow continues south of the Mass Pike into late Thursday morning and dissipating as the cold front clears the coast around lunch-time. But, as the wind goes from northwest to north/northeast the outer Cape and Nantucket are subject to ocean affect snow showers. Bufkit soundings show lapse rates at the surface which will help produce on and off snow showers into Thursday evening. The thinking is still a general coating to an inch or two south of the Mass Pike.

Vast area of high pressure over the northern Great Lakes expands into southern New England overnight and starts to erode the cloud over. Thursday night into Friday morning will be COLD! Given the clearing sky cover we went with a blend of the 10th percentile of the NBM and the CONSMOS, which yields low temperatures -10F to 0F north of the Mass Pike and 0F to 15F south of the Mass Pike to the coast . the Cape and Islands remain in the upper teens to low 20s.

With northerly winds around 10 knots we may need wind chill headlines north and west of Worcester and eastern slopes of the Berkshires.

Cold and dry for the most part on Friday. The only exception would be for the Cape and Nantucket, there could be a few lingering ocean effect snow flurries. Otherwise, a 1040 high over the Saint Lawrence River Valley brings us a quiet weather day with afternoon temperatures in the teens and 20s and apparent temperatures below zero to 10/15 degrees above zero.

Saturday into Sunday:

A pain of a forecast. We are continuing to monitor the threat for a weekend storm . will it be a block buster or a glancing blow is still to be determined.

Forecast guidance continues to be rather low for the day 4 and 5, unfortunately. Given the uncertainty and the large swing in model output I've decided to run with the NBM for now. Hopefully, there will be stronger agreement between the models heading into the next day or two.

The latest 12z guidance shows a miss from the ensemble GFS with only a small number of the its members showing some type of coastal storm in southern New England. As for the ECMWF ensemble, there are a couple more of its members that show some type of a coastal storm late Saturday into Sunday.

As you can see it is still very messy. More information to come!

Monday and Tuesday:

Given the forecast challenges previously mentioned I didn't deviate from the NBM. So far it does look dry through Tuesday and day time temperatures area expected to be below normal in the 20s.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06z Update .

Today . High Confidence. VFR with just mid/high level cloudiness particularly in the morning. SW wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots developing by afternoon with a few gusts up to 40 knots along the far southeast New England coast.

This Evening . High Confidence. Mainly VFR this evening as gusty southwest winds gradually diminish.

Overnight and Thursday . Moderate Confidence. MVFR and eventually IFR conditions will develop between 08z and 12z near and south of the MA Turnpike in snow or rain changing to snow. IFR conditions will persist much of Thu am south of the MA Turnpike and perhaps mid afternoon or so towards the southeast New England coast. Improvement to VFR will occur as the day wears along from northwest to southeast. A general 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected for areas near and south of the MA Turnpike into mid afternoon Thursday. Winds will shift to the NW at 5 to 15 knots.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Greatest risk for a period of accumulating snow will be from 10z to 16z Thursday. A coating to 2 inches possible.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Greatest risk for a period of accumulating snow will be from 09z to 15z Thursday. A coating to 2 inches possible.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SN.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SN.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tonight . High Confidence. Gale force NW winds will diminish through this evening becoming light overnight as high pres builds into the waters.

Wednesday . High Confidence. Another period of gales from the SW expected Wed afternoon as a strong low level jet develops. Gusts to 35-40 kt expected with seas building to 10 ft over south coastal open waters. Gale warning will be needed for this period.

Wednesday night . High confidence. Gusty SW winds diminishing overnight.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain likely, chance of snow. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of snow, chance of freezing spray. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of freezing spray, slight chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of snow. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of snow. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Slight chance of snow. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for MAZ019-021>024. RI . Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for RIZ008. MARINE . Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/Gaucher NEAR TERM . Frank SHORT TERM . KJC LONG TERM . Gaucher AVIATION . Frank/Gaucher MARINE . KJC/Gaucher


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 14 mi27 min NW 16G18 28°F 36°F1022.1 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi53 min 26°F 37°F1022.3 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi122 min W 4.1 25°F 1022 hPa6°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 22 mi53 min WNW 6G13 27°F 36°F1022.3 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi47 min 1022.9 hPa (+1.0)
44090 33 mi51 min 40°F3 ft
CHTM3 36 mi53 min W 6G11 22°F 38°F1021.7 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi53 min 24°F 34°F1022.9 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 43 mi53 min WNW 8G9.9 24°F 1022.7 hPa
FRXM3 43 mi53 min 25°F 7°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 44 mi51 min 48°F5 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 45 mi53 min NW 4.1G9.9 25°F 38°F1022.1 hPa
PRUR1 46 mi53 min 23°F 3°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi62 min WNW 4.1 20°F 1023 hPa4°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi53 min NW 1.9G4.1 22°F 1023.1 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last 24 hrW12
G17
W12
G23
NW10
G20
NW14
G26
W14
G26
NW12
G31
NW16
G24
NW16
G22
NW14
G22
NW16
G28
NW14
G23
NW15
G25
NW15
G25
W14
G25
NW11
G20
NW16
G27
NW14
G21
NW12
G26
NW14
G20
NW12
G17
NW11
G16
W6
G13
W7
G12
NW9
G13
1 day
ago
E23
G28
E25
G35
E27
G33
E26
G43
E23
G34
SE20
G40
SE13
G22
S8
G15
SW10
G18
SW10
G16
SW11
G17
SW11
G21
SW13
G23
SW11
G23
SW10
G18
SW12
G20
SW12
G23
SW10
G18
W8
G13
SW9
G16
W10
G19
W10
G14
W11
G21
W10
G25
2 days
ago
N4
G8
N4
G9
N3
NE2
N1
G4
NE4
NE4
G7
NE4
N3
G6
SE6
SE5
G10
SE5
E4
G7
SE6
G9
SE8
G13
SE13
G18
SE14
G18
SE13
G18
SE14
G21
E17
G26
E17
G24
E24
G31

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA7 mi54 minWNW 810.00 miFair25°F6°F44%1022 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA19 mi1.9 hrsW 810.00 miFair19°F5°F53%1021.7 hPa
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA24 mi54 minWNW 910.00 miFair27°F6°F41%1021.9 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair23°F5°F46%1021.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMVY

Wind History from MVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrW16
G29
W16
G27
W18
G28
W18
G29
NW16
G28
W17
G28
W15
G30
W15
G28
W20
G28
W18
G27
W14
G31
W18
G32
W23
G36
W16
G29
W17
G28
NW16
G23
W15
G23
NW12
G24
NW14
G20
W9
G19
W8
G16
NW8NW6NW8
1 day agoE16
G31
E22
G34
E21
G35
E25
G41
E27
G40
E23
G39
SE13
G22
S15
G24
SW15
G25
SW18
G31
SW22
G29
SW21
G30
SW16
G25
SW17
G27
SW17
G26
SW19
G28
SW12
G23
SW11
G19
SW13
G24
SW14
G23
W9
G20
W10
G19
W12
G23
W13
G26
2 days agoNW8N60N300NW5N3E9--SE8SE7SE5E6NE5SE5SE8SE12
G21
SE12E14
G24
E15
G25
E12
G19
E17
G22
E16
G26

Tide / Current Tables for Edgartown, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts
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Edgartown
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:59 AM EST     1.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:17 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:00 PM EST     2.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:50 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Edgartown, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, Tide feet
12
am
1.7
1
am
1.8
2
am
1.7
3
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1.3
4
am
0.8
5
am
0.4
6
am
0.1
7
am
0.2
8
am
0.5
9
am
0.9
10
am
1.3
11
am
1.6
12
pm
1.9
1
pm
2
2
pm
1.9
3
pm
1.5
4
pm
1
5
pm
0.5
6
pm
0
7
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-0.1
8
pm
0.1
9
pm
0.5
10
pm
0.8
11
pm
1.2


Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:50 AM EST     -3.38 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:15 AM EST     0.15 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:28 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:58 AM EST     3.25 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:28 AM EST     -0.02 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:05 PM EST     -3.74 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:31 PM EST     0.09 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:25 PM EST     3.59 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution), knots
12
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-1.9
1
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-3.1
2
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-3.4
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-3
4
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-2.2
5
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-0.9
6
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1.7
7
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2.5
8
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3.1
9
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3.2
10
am
3
11
am
1.9
12
pm
-2
1
pm
-3.3
2
pm
-3.7
3
pm
-3.5
4
pm
-2.7
5
pm
-1.5
6
pm
1.5
7
pm
2.5
8
pm
3.2
9
pm
3.6
10
pm
3.5
11
pm
2.9


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