Friday, October15, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand River, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 6:44PM Friday October 15, 2021 11:49 PM EDT (03:49 UTC) Moonrise 3:57PMMoonset 1:04AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh-geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 951 Pm Edt Fri Oct 15 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday morning through Monday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms late this evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers. A chance of waterspouts overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 68 degrees, off cleveland 68 degrees, and off erie 65 degrees.
LEZ147 Expires:202110160830;;748626 FZUS51 KCLE 160151 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 951 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ147>149-160830-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand River, OH
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location: 41.76, -81.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 160143 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 943 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

SYNOPSIS. A low moving northeastward along a frontal zone advances from in vicinity of northwest Ohio this afternoon to far-southeastern Ontario by daybreak Saturday. The trailing cold front will sweep east through our region late this afternoon through early Saturday morning. Behind the front, a trough lingers over the Great Lakes while a ridge attempts to build from the Great Plains.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. A line of showers and thunderstorms with the cold front will move further east with time overnight and is just east of the Cleveland to Mansfield line. A break in the activity will take place over the western half of the area for several hours and then another area of showers will move into the region later tonight in the wrap around precipitation on the back side of the low pressure system. This is also in response to a broad trough of low pressure progged to move southeast across the area as well. Temperatures are gradually dropping from west to east in the wake of the cold front and made some adjustments to account for the current trends.

Previous Discussion .

Southwesterly flow aloft shifts to westerly over our CWA on Saturday as a deep longwave trough advances eastward from the Great Plains and overspreads the Great Lakes and eastern United States. At the surface, a low in vicinity of the northeast IN/northwest OH border early this afternoon continues moving northeastward along a southwest-to-northeast frontal zone in vicinity of Lake Erie. This low should reach central Lake Erie around nightfall and southeastern ON by daybreak Saturday. Accordingly, the trailing cold front should sweep eastward through our CWA late this afternoon through the wee hours of Saturday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and near the frontal zone, including along and ahead of the trailing cold front.

Severe storms remain a concern. Moderate to strong effective bulk shear, weak to moderate SBCAPE/MLCAPE, and moderate DCAPE should support a mix of multicells and supercells with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts through this early evening. However, southeasterly surface winds east of the surface low should enhance vertical wind shear and surface-based ESRH in northeast OH, northwest PA, and central/eastern Lake Erie. This is where a tornadic supercell or two is possible. Weak mid-level lapse rates and high melting levels will likely limit the severe hail threat. The other concern is potential localized flash flooding. Unusually-high PWATs in the warm sector will contribute to periods of heavy rainfall. Plus, southwesterly mean mid-level flow parallel to the frontal zone should promote training convection. Behind the front, lingering rain showers are expected overnight tonight as multiple shortwave disturbances embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft traverse our region. Overnight lows should reach the 50's. On Saturday, widespread rain showers along the upper-reaches of the departing front will transition to lake-effect rain showers and graupel over and east-southeast of Lake Erie as cold air deepens and lake-induced CAPE builds to moderate to strong magnitudes. Isolated lake-effect thunderstorms are possible since model soundings over the lake depict lake-induced CAPE of at least 200 J/kg in the primary charge separation zone (i.e. the cloud temperature range from 0C to -20C in the CAPE profile). Daytime highs should reach the upper 50's to lower 60's; much more typical for mid-October.

Flow aloft becomes northwesterly Saturday night as a longwave ridge builds from the west. At the surface, a thermal trough lingers over the Great Lakes while a ridge attempts to build from the Great Plains. Multiple bands of lake-effect rain showers and isolated thunderstorms should persist east- southeast of Lake Erie Saturday night as a well-aligned west- northwesterly flow of cold and moist air continues and lake- induced CAPE remains moderate to strong. Odds favor fair weather outside the lake-effect precip. Overnight lows should reach the 40's inland to near 50 degrees along the shore of ~67F Lake Erie.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Lake effect showers are expected to continue into Sunday night across NE OH into NW PA. These will shift eastward as they weaken by late MOnday morning. Beyond this time high pressure will ridge into the region from the south.

It will be cooler Sunday into Monday. Highs in the 60's. Lows in the 40's to lower 50's.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure ridges into the region from the south Tuesday into Thursday. This will allow for a warming trend with dry conditions. The next area of low pressure and its associated cold front move into the region Thursday into Thursday night with some lake effect showers in its wake on Friday.

Temperatures look to above seasonal averages through Thursday. In the wake of the cold front temperatures fall on Friday. Highs look to be back into the 50's to lower 60's.

AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/. A cold front will move east across the area this evening as low pressure over Lake Erie moves northeast of the region overnight. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front will move east of the area as well followed by lowering ceilings and some shower activity. Expecting conditions to gradually improve from west to east into tomorrow morning but some lake effect rain showers are expected in the northeast through the rest of the forecast period. Winds will be increasing across the area as well behind the cold front to between 12 and 15 knots sustained.

Outlook . Non-VFR likely with periods of showers and perhaps thunderstorms through Monday morning, especially southeast of Lake Erie.

MARINE. Winds are increasing on the west side of the surface low and resulted in the small craft advisory conditions developing sooner than expected over the western half of the lake. So, started small craft advisory in the western basin with this update and adjusted mid lake advisory about 3 hours earlier.

Previous Discussion .

A cold front will cross the lake overnight as low pressure deepens on its move across Ontario into Quebec. THis will allow west to northwest winds to increase to 15 to 25 knots from west to east late tonight into Saturday morning. These stronger winds and a long fetch will build waves, especially east of the Islands to Ripley. Small craft advisory conditions gradually end from west to east Saturday night through Monday afternoon. Lingering the longest from Willowick to Ripley. High pressure ridges onto the lake from the south Monday night into Tuesday with lighter winds.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 PM EDT Monday for LEZ147>149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ142-143. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Monday for LEZ144>146.

SYNOPSIS . Jaszka NEAR TERM . Jaszka/Lombardy SHORT TERM . MM LONG TERM . MM AVIATION . Lombardy MARINE . MM/Lombardy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 1 mi55 min NW 23G25 63°F 69°F1006.3 hPa63°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 18 mi79 min WSW 8G12
45197 20 mi49 min NNE 16G19 64°F 68°F2 ft1007.4 hPa (+0.0)
45164 21 mi49 min 16G27 64°F 69°F3 ft
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 24 mi55 min NNW 12G16 63°F 68°F1008 hPa59°F
45196 35 mi49 min W 14G18 64°F 68°F2 ft1007.8 hPa (+0.6)62°F
45132 - Port Stanley 49 mi49 min NNW 19G21 62°F 66°F2 ft1005.9 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH16 mi64 minNW 14 G 2520.00 miOvercast64°F63°F94%1007.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--0W300000SE3SE4--S5--S6S7SW8SW7
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1 day agoS6S5S6S7S4S5SE3S4S4SW4SW5SW6SW6W4W4--0S5SW6S6S10SW5W10--
2 days agoSW5----SW4SW5S4S4S6SW6SW6--W10SW9NW6W400000S3S3S6S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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