Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Farnham, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 6:14PM Thursday October 28, 2021 4:09 PM EDT (20:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:12PMMoonset 1:55PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Expires:202110282130;;915929 Fzus51 Kbuf 281431 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1031 Am Edt Thu Oct 28 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez040-041-282130- Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1031 Am Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
This afternoon..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 5 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
LEZ041


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farnham, NY
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location: 42.57, -79.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 281947 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 347 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure to our northeast will maintain fair weather across the region through this evening. Low pressure will bring widespread rain on Friday which lasts through Saturday, tapering off to scattered showers for Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Low clouds from the St. Lawrence Valley across Lk Ontario to the Niagara peninsula has thinned considerably and will allow for partly to mostly sunny skies across the CWA this afternoon. Otherwise, dry and fair weather will continue across the eastern Great Lakes through this evening.

Temperatures today should be similar to yesterday for most locations with highs in the 50s to low 60s. However, it might be a bit cooler where the low cloudiness resided this morning.

Tonight, low pressure to our south will approach the region with increasing cloud cover overnight. Ahead of this system, a strengthening H925 LLJ intersecting with the Chautauqua ridge will potentially allow for downsloping winds to develop late tonight. Not expecting too strong of an event but wind gusts of 30 mph to 35 mph will be possible. Otherwise, not quite as cold across Western NY and the Finger Lakes region where lows will generally be found in the 40s. Across the North Country, it will be a bit cooler due to less cloud cover. Temperatures there will fall again back into the 30s just before daybreak.

Friday, an occluded frontal boundary will lift north towards the area with rain overspreading the region over the course of the day. Large scale ascent in combination with deep moisture feeding back west across the region, supported by a +60 knot H850 LLJ and favorable upper level jet dynamics, will bring in another soaking rainfall to the eastern Great Lakes. That said, WPC has placed our region in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Rainfall amounts over a 36 hour period beginning Friday morning right now will range between 1.0 to 1.5 over the CWA. Keeping this in mind and the recent rains across the CWA (saturated ground) will need to keep a close watch on area streams and creeks as flows still remain high. Have mentioned this in the HWO for now.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Nearly vertically stacked sfc-H5 low with occluded front to its north edges slowly eastward out of Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday. East-southeast low- level jet on north side of the low propels swath of higher PWATS up to 1.20 inches (90th percentile) across the region from south to north. Moderate to heavy rain possible as this swath of deep moisture and convergence with low-level jet (also on the higher side of climo) move through. 6 hr amounts will exceed 0.50 and could exceed 1.0 inch especially Genesee Valley to western Finger Lakes. These areas remain very saturated from recent rains and stream flows are very high. As mentioned in near term discussion, we will continue to handle this with HWO mention. Based on the ambient conditions seems that if expected rainfall starts to trend more over 1.25 inches in 3 hr or 1.5+ in 6 hours, more issues could start to develop in terms of flooding even though these values are below the overall flash flood guidance. Right now though, that looks to be a lower chance scenario.

Moderate rain up to 0.50 during the day will continue on Saturday southeast Lake Ontario region to the North Country along H85 jet axis. Elsewhere, kept pops likely or higher, but rainfall amounts will trend down compared to late Friday into Friday night with most areas only seeing a couple tenths of rain. Temperatures will barely reach 50 across higher terrain and only get to the mid 50s across the lower terrain.

Low pressure wobbles towards northern NY late Saturday night, leaving deep moisture and cyclonic low-level flow on the west side of the low across all but the North Country. Increased pops and QPF on Saturday night over western NY to the Southern Tier with upslope flow and as cold air begins to work into the region. Lows will not fall off too much with the clouds and rain showers around. Expect readings for most areas to remain in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A closed low across the region early Sunday will support scattered showers even though amounts should be on the light side. High pressure will then ridge across the region Sunday night through Monday night, providing a short period with mostly rain-free conditions.

A pair of troughs will then dig across the Great Lakes mid-week, which will drive a cooler airmass into the region. These will produce periods of showers from Tuesday through the rest of the long term period, with lake effect showers possible downwind of the Lakes as well. Expect mainly rain showers, but with 850mb temperatures dropping to -5c some wet snow flakes are possible well inland from the lakes, with the best chance for some snow on Wednesday night.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Widespread VFR conditions expected through the rest of the day. Area of low level stratocu over the Saint Lawrence Valley now shrinking rapidly as diurnal mixing commences this afternoon. Same going on over Lake Ontario, just a much slower process over the waters. Otherwise, mainly just some high cirrus aloft through this evening.

Mid/upper level clouds will slowly increase from southwest to northeast overnight as a low pressure system approaches from the Ohio Valley. This will lead to mainly VFR flight conditions continuing through tonight. The exception will be lower clouds moving into the western Southern Tier after midnight, then spreading northward into the northern Finger Lakes region toward early Friday morning. This will bring the possibility for MVFR CIGS (IFR east of KJHW) across theses areas respectively, that will last through the end of the TAF period. With regard to precipitation, the chance for a few showers will increase across southwestern NYS toward early Friday morning and become steadier there toward midday. Shower potential will then continue to slowly increase to the north and northeast, with a few light showers/lower end VFR CIGS possibly making it into the Niagara Frontier toward midday Friday.

Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions expected east of KROC through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook . Friday . MVFR with rain showers developing. Saturday . IFR/MVFR with rain showers. Sunday . MVFR/VFR with a chance of rain showers. Monday . MVFR/VFR with a chance of lake effect rain showers east of the Lakes. Tuesday . MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

MARINE. A tightening pressure gradient across the area ahead of a low pressure system over the southern plains will allow for stronger east to northeast winds and higher waves along the south shore of Lk Ontario this afternoon into this evening. SCA conditions will be more marginal on the shores of Lake Erie, though the offshore wind direction should keep the higher waves away from the shores.

Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue along the southern shores of Lake Ontario tonight.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LOZ042-043.



SYNOPSIS . AR/PP NEAR TERM . AR SHORT TERM . JLA LONG TERM . Apffel/SW AVIATION . JM MARINE . AR/PP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 9 mi69 min 57°F 1007.5 hPa (-2.9)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 15 mi69 min NE 22G24 57°F 1007.3 hPa (-3.6)
45142 - Port Colborne 16 mi69 min NE 18G21 57°F 61°F2 ft1008.5 hPa (-3.0)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 24 mi69 min NNE 12G16 57°F 60°F1008.3 hPa (-2.5)43°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 35 mi69 min 55°F 1008.8 hPa (-2.4)
NREP1 43 mi99 min E 8G14

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY11 mi76 minNNE 1110.00 miFair60°F48°F65%1008.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5NW4NE4S4E30E4000000000NE4NE8NE9NE9NE9NE10NE11NE12
1 day agoNW11
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N12N12N11N10N8N8N9N8NE7NE5E6N7NE11N8N7N7N6
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2 days agoNE4N4NE4N7NE7N14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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