Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Howell, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:02AMSunset 5:30PM Sunday January 16, 2022 9:12 PM EST (02:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:08PMMoonset 7:24AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0088.000000t0000z-211014t2330z/ 652 Pm Edt Thu Oct 14 2021
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The showers have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4181 8349 4195 8337 4196 8328 4225 8318 4232 8312 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4178 8334 time...mot...loc 2251z 256deg 28kt 4235 8301 4192 8315
LCZ423 Expires:202110142302;;688775 FZUS73 KDTX 142252 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 652 PM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021 LCZ423-LEZ444-142302-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Howell, MI
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location: 42.68, -83.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 162325 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 625 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

AVIATION.

VFR conditions are expected into Monday morning as lower clouds/snow from Nor-easter remain east of the area. Gusty northwest flow on the backside of this system by midday Monday will bring some MVFR cigs into the area which should hold into the end of the forecast period. Wind gusts should reach into the 25-30 knot range Monday afternoon.

For DTW . Snow/lower cigs will remain east of the region into Monday morning with some MVFR to lower VFR stratus working in on increasing northwesterly flow by midday Monday as colder air begins to filter into the area in behind the winter storm passes east of the region.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft late tonight and Monday morning, then high after 16Z Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

DISCUSSION .

The primary driver of the weather over the next 18 to 24 hours will be the strong winter storm system that will track to the east of the Appalachian chain. No surprises or deviation with the 16.12Z model suite that only attempts to brush the very edge of the cwa with QPF/liquid equivalent. Currently, a strong surface ridge of high pressure is in place directly through Southeast Michigan, a feature that is a direct reflection of high static stability from the surface through 16.0 kft agl. The surface ridge will persist throughout today as differential warm advection aloft bolsters the stability while slowly shifting its positioning to the north. Clear skies are now expected into nightfall. As a result, expecting a quick radiating environment this evening and adjusted temperatures downward.

For tonight, consensus of hires model solutions supports dry weather for all areas including the far eastern cwa. Plan view perspective shows the opening stages of some modest sub 700mb moisture lifting into Southeast Michigan before stalling out over Metro Detroit by 00Z. A couple of items of note are no clouds exist where this thetae surge is now underway and models then show an overwhelmingly loss of this thetae this evening as dynamic midlevel subsidence increases in response to the approaching low pressure. The moisture is expected to be good for a mid/high deck at approximately 10kft agl with virga. The dry air will prove too formidable with high static stability and low RH in the lower troposphere.

Brisk, northerly geostrophic flow is expected Monday over Lower Michigan as pressure gradient tightens in response to sub 980mb low pressure over upstate New York. Survey of many forecast soundings show a relatively well mixed environmental wind profile of 30 knots or less through the lowest 3.5 kft agl. Distribution of wind gusts within the time-lagged ensemble data is not at all concerning. High confidence of northwest wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots. The narrative here is that wind chills are not expected to climb out of the teens Monday afternoon. An old midlevel trough axis with modest absolute vorticity/moisture aloft will dig into/converge on the central Great Lakes from the west. No synoptic scale precipitation is expected given the amount of dry air, however, seeding from aloft may excite/activate some modest lake effect snow near Lake Huron. Kept with the inherited low chances across the far eastern cwa and some mention for flurries over the remainder of the cwa.

An Alberta Clipper system with a well organized, deep low pressure circulation will dig into Lake Superior Tuesday night. Current forecast suggests that lead wing of isentropic lift will push down into the Saginaw Bay region, likely limited to areas north of I 69. Early forecast soundings support a well structured front near 700mb with deep moisture for a time through the DGZ. The uncertain part of the forecast is how long the deeper saturation/moisture can stick around. There is doubt that the moisture will be around for any duration as very dry westerly flow will exist along the southern flank of the system. A broad wavelength to the trough will support early cold air advection which result in some near surface moistening during the day. Latest signal is that ice nucleation may prove to be an issue during the day across Metro Detroit. No widespread precipitation potential, the chance exists for pockets of drizzle. Current indications have temperatures above freezing. Latest indications that better breezy conditions will come in the morning

A large area of high pressure is expected to result in quiet but cold weather during the end of the week. This end of the week period will reside in the climatological coldest time of year. Temperatures some 5 to 10 degrees below normal may result in a few readings below normal particularly Friday morning.

MARINE .

Moderate southerly flow will weaken heading into tonight before veering northwesterly in response to strong low pressure continuing to rapidly deepen as it travels up the Appalachians tonight and through Monday. As the low deepens to as low as 976 hPa by Monday night, the pressure gradient across the eastern and central Great Lakes will tighten, resulting in increased northwesterly flow especially over the central and southern open Lake Huron basin during Monday afternoon through Monday evening. Overall gusts still look to hold around 30 knots, but sporadic gusts to low-end gales will be possible, but not sustained enough at this time to warrant any gale headlines. Also during this time, wave heights will be building, and hazardous small craft conditions will exist for ice free areas in outer Saginaw Bay. Behind the departing low, weak high pressure builds into the region before an Alberta clipper low moves southeast into the northern Great Lakes resulting in a strengthening of southerly flow out of ahead of it for the middle of the next week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ421.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . IRL

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 57 mi72 min NE 8.9G9.9 25°F 1007.8 hPa (-2.7)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 72 mi54 min NE 5.1G8 26°F 1004.7 hPa21°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI5 mi17 minN 410.00 miFair20°F16°F83%1005.4 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi19 minN 410.00 miFair19°F13°F77%1007.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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