Friday, January28, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:42PM Friday January 28, 2022 6:25 AM EST (11:25 UTC) Moonrise 4:44AMMoonset 1:37PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 344 Am Est Fri Jan 28 2022
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202201281615;;951596 FZUS53 KDTX 280844 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 344 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-281615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 281117 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 617 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

AVIATION.

Brief period of drier low level conditions within the immediate wake of a cold frontal passage affords a window of limited stratus coverage thru mid morning /~15z/. Moisture flux off lake Huron within prevailing north-northeast flow will then support an expanding coverage of stratus for the remainder of the daylight period. Cloud bases favored at high MVFR initially, before gradually lifting with time under daytime heating. Northerly winds generally holding below 10 knots today. Potential for a clearing sky increases tonight as low level flow backs to northwesterly and draws drier air back into the region.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low in ceilings aob 5kft this morning, then high this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 431 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

DISCUSSION .

.Snow Ends for Most with Lingering Lake Effect.

Overnight arctic surface front has cleared south of the state-line early this morning ending the threat of FGEN-enhanced show showers. GOES imagery depicts some lake effect streamers infiltrating otherwise cloud-free skies, especially across the northern and western Great Lakes as cold advection veers along north-northeast streamlines. Morning lower tropospheric ridging shears out during the afternoon hours and allows for some stratocumulus development atop a modest mixed-layer. The frontal slope at H8 is still traversing southward this morning with level temps falling below negative 18C, supportive of highs in the mid to upper teens. Surface winds remain AOB 10 knots today, but still support sub-zero wind chill values during the morning while residual weak gradient exists.

The exception to today's predominantly dry forecast arises along the southern Huron shoreline and inland across the M-59 corridor. Recent trends suggest rather narrow and transient banding as on-shore flow veers slightly more northeasterly. The strongest shoreline surface convergence appears to develop INVOF Port Huron and is associated with the best snowfall rates. But given the minimal CAM agreement for the immediate shoreline development and persistence, did revise PoPs and snow amounts downward. Immediate shoreline areas won't likely see more than 1.5 inches of new snowfall, but a coating to a few tenths is now possible further inland after ENE sets in. High uncertainty if shallow and rather narrow moisture channel is persistent enough for light snow, or if it just ends up supporting flurries for inland counties. Did at least give Slight Chance PoPs as far west as I-75 and between I-96 and I-69. Arctic airmass also sustains SLRs greater than 20:1 for any periods of accumulating snow, so it won't be hard to get measurable snow inland with any light snowfall. Upped overnight lows a couple degrees to zero or just above given slightly more lake effect cloud and resultant insolation for the eastern third of the CWA.

Diffuse initial surface pressure pattern Saturday provides limited gradient and minimal advective processes. Isentropic perspective suggesting weak downglide within the mid-levels and fringe surface ridge axis extension for the southern part of the state. Even with a favorable window of midday sun, still hard to bet on highs breaking 20F being fully entrenched in the thermal trough. Thickening mid and high cloud cover with backing column winds ahead of the next wave preserves double digit overnight lows into Sunday.

Meaningful shift in the 00/06Z models for Sunday as precip looks more respectable, especially north of I-69. The impressive extratropical cyclone over the Northeast will influence upstream wave progression as the dominant PV anomaly associated with the closed low links up with energy over Hudson Bay. This sharpens the positively tilted inbound shortwave feature that digs through Mid- Michigan. While the CVA is sufficient, there are concerns with moisture quality given short-duration saturated isentropic ascent Saturday night. Mid-level subsidence then cuts into ratios during the afternoon, but did afford the chance for some activity with daytime accumulations of a coating to near an inch closer to the Tri- Cities. Sunday also ushers in slightly warmer air as the thermal trough begins to exit northeast with highs lifting into the mid to upper 20s. Milder yet on Monday with return flow from eastern high pressure. Mainly dry conditions in the absence of lake-effect opportunities with southeasterly anticyclonic flow. A warm front begins to lift through late Monday into Tuesday.

Active pattern revived Tuesday with peak warming for the period. Readings recover to near 40F for the first time in almost two weeks before a cold front sweeps through. This appears to be a rather active cold front with FGEN production of precipitation. Given the warmer antecedent conditions, rain looks like a fair play initially Tuesday. A brief lull is possible behind the front before longwave trough amplification over central CONUS and associated upper level support translates east. This facilitates the rapid ejection of a surface low tracking along the windward side of the Appalachians. Models are unresolved regarding which side of the freezing line Southeast Michigan resides. For what it's worth, the last three cycles of the GFS have consistently shifted colder, for the Wednesday night period and the EPS supports accumulating snowfall. If colder model trends hold with a moisture laden atmosphere, more significant accumulating snowfall will be possible.

MARINE .

Cold veering northeast wind diminishes today as the pressure gradient relaxes. Diffuse surface pressure field ensures weak flow throughout the weekend. Given the renewed arctic airmass, the central Great Lakes will exhibit higher concentrations of ice cover. This continues to complicate navigation through narrower channels, especially along the St. Clair River from Algonac to the city of St. Clair where multiple ice blockages have been reported this week. Expect scattered lake effect snow showers to develop over the waterways today, especially for southern Lake Huron. Mainly dry the rest of the weekend before a more active pattern arrives early next week supporting multiple rounds of precipitation and stronger winds.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . KK MARINE . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi86 min N 8.9G9.9 9°F 1023.7 hPa (+0.3)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi46 min NW 17G19 10°F 1024.7 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi46 min NNW 5.1G11 8°F 1025.4 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Last 24 hrS19
G24
S14
G22
S17
G22
S12
G15
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G20
SW13
G19
SW10
G14
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G20
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G18
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W8
G12
NW15
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G23
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G18
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G21
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1 day
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W10
G14
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G13
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G15
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G14
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G14
W7
G10
SW11
G15
SW9
G12
S9
S9
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S12
G16
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G17
S13
G18
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G23
SW17
G21
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G18
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G20
SW14
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G22
2 days
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W6
G13
W7
G11
W9
W7
G11
NW5
G9
W7
G11
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G10
W3
G8
W6
W7
G10
W6
G9
SW5
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NW12
G16
W8
G14
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G12
W8
G13
W9
G13
W9
G14
W11
G15
W13
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi33 minN 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy8°F1°F73%1026.4 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi31 minNNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy10°F3°F71%1025.1 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi31 minN 310.00 miFair8°F1°F74%1025.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrS14
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SW16SW14SW12SW11SW10SW7N19N16N17N15N14N14N9N6NW7N8N10N11
1 day agoW4W7W7SW5SW6SW6SW6SW9SW11SW9SW10SW12SW14SW10SW10S13
G21
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SW13
2 days agoW7W5W7SW6W7SW8SW9SW10W12SW9W7W9W7W11W11W9W9W6W6W7W8W6W6W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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