Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Clark's Point, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 9:16AMSunset 6:10PM Thursday October 28, 2021 12:19 PM AKDT (20:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:20PMMoonset 3:48PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ160 Bristol Bay- 457 Am Akdt Thu Oct 28 2021
.gale warning Friday...
Today..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Tonight..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Fri night..N wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Sat..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Sun..N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Mon..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clark's Point, AK
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location: 58.85, -158.55     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 281337 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 537 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Latest infrared satellite imagery reveals an upper low persisting over the Bering this morning and centered just east of the Pribilofs. An occluded front extends eastward from the low into interior Alaska and meets a triple point low currently over the Kenai Peninsula. Light snow is falling across the Kuskokwim Delta in the vicinity or just southeast of Bethel along the front. Over the triple point low cloud cover is expanding in coverage with additional light snow occurring from Homer to Iliamna. A cold air mass lingers over much of Southwest with 850 mb temperatures ranging from -8 to -10 degrees Celsius while Southcentral 850 mb temperatures are closer to -6 degrees Celsius currently. A warm front is lifting northward toward Prince William Sound with isolated to scattered showers. Behind the warm front is a cold front which extends southward into the southern gulf. The next big weather maker is deepening in strength to the south of Amchitka Island. It is producing overcast skies and lowered ceilings across the Aleutians this morning. As this low continues to strengthen and shift east it will likely bring a wintry mix to parts of Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Delta Friday into the weekend, as well as heavy rains and mountain snow to the Kenai Peninsula, and high winds across the Turnagain Arm, including Portage Pass and the town of Whittier.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

The models are handling synoptic features well this morning over the Bering and over the Gulf of Alaska. Good model agreement continues and depicts a low over the Bering and a low over the Gulf of Alaska gradually merging over interior Alaska through 24 hours. Beyond 24 hours models continue to show good agreement with a third low undergoing significant amplification south of the Aleutians on Friday and presenting an atmospheric river into the Kenai Peninsula for a 12 to 24 hour period Friday night into Saturday. Models diverge beyond 48 hours but do suggest southerly flow over the Kenai Peninsula will become southeast and then easterly as an amplified low and its trough axis pivot counterclockwise Saturday morning. The evolution of this low over the next couple of days will ultimately determine just how much rain areas like Seward receive into the weekend.

AVIATION. PANC . Light winds will persist with VFR conditions early this morning lowering to MVFR as light snow moves across the terminal. The light snow is expected to linger through around noon Thursday before tapering off. VFR ceilings and light southerly winds are expected through Thursday afternoon and evening; however, ceilings should remain at or below 5,000 ft.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Today through Sunday Morning) .

A weak shortwave and associated surface low near Homer this morning will lift northeast today. As it does, expect light snow from Cook Inlet and the Anchorage Bowl east toward Prince William Sound. The snow will be light, with around an inch expected for places like Anchorage and Kenai. A couple of inches are possible for higher elevations such as Turnagain and Thompson Passes and across the Portage Valley. As the shortwave lifts to the interior Friday, weather across Southcentral will turn relatively quiet, with the exception of some lingering snow showers across the mountains.

The pattern then turns more amplified and more active beginning late Friday, continuing through the weekend. A deepening upper- level trough will dive well south of the AKPen Friday morning as the upper-level jet becomes meridional. Ahead of the trough, deep southerly flow will transport tropical moisture northward into Southcentral in the form of an atmospheric river. A colder airmass in place ahead of the frontal system lifting north will allow for some snow initially, especially away from the coast and at elevation. However, as the warmer air advects from the south and the airmass across coastal Southcentral moderates, snow levels will quickly climb, reaching over 3,000 feet by Saturday morning.

The aforementioned frontal system will reach Kodiak Island first, with rain and gusty southerly winds developing by Friday morning. The atmospheric river will then migrate to the Kenai Peninsula by Fri afternoon, where copious moisture will wring out over the mountains. Seward could see 2 to 4 inches of rain by late Saturday with QPF amounts nearly doubled in the surrounding mountains. While the forecasted winds aloft have shifted from due south to southeasterly, allowing for slightly less rainfall amounts in Seward, the forecasted 2 to 4 inches will fall in a short enough period of time to bring the potential for localized flooding. Similar rainfall totals are possible in Kodiak City through Sunday as the AR realigns at Kodiak Island by Sunday.

Farther north, the primary weather threat will be high winds, both at elevation and trough favored gaps. As the leading front moves toward the Southcentral coast, the synoptic winds will turn east- southeasterly, aligning with gaps such as Turnagain Arm. Given the strength of this system, gusts above hurricane force are likely to develop, especially along Turnagain Arm, Portage Valley, and the higher elevations of the Anchorage Hillside. A High Wind Watches remains in effect for these locations from Friday evening through Sunday morning. Other threats include the potential for significant amounts of snow across the western Susitna Valley, some snowfall and gusty winds across the Copper River Basin, and temperatures warming well into the 40s by Saturday. Stay tuned for additional products and updated forecasts.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3. Today through Saturday morning) .

A weak low pressure system will move across the area today with a few lingering areas of very light snow and snow showers mainly over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley with little or no snow accumulations expected. This evening through early Friday the area will see a brief break in the weather with mostly clear skies and cold temperatures with lows Friday morning in the teens and low 20s across the area. However, by Friday afternoon a strong low pressure system develops south of the AKPEN. This will draw moisture rapidly across the area with a frontal system developing across Bristol Bay. Strong upper level forcing is expected as a favorable area of the upper level jet stream moves across the area creating lift. This will allow snow to develop across the area Friday afternoon through Saturday. Warm air will develop from downsloping winds off the western Alaskan Range causing the snow to change to a mix of freezing rain and rain Friday night into Saturday morning across Bristol Bay. It will change over to rain sometime Friday night around King Salmon and Iliamna while Dillingham and north towards New Stuyahok and Koliganek the snow will change to freezing rain and/or rain by Saturday morning through around midday Saturday. Currently 4 to 8 inches of snow is likely from Dillingham north to Koliganek. While King Salmon and Iliamna will see 1 to 2 inches of snow before changing to rain. Areas that get freezing rain should be short lived and relatively light in nature with minimal impacts. Expect 6 to 10 inches of snow across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley beginning Friday night and possibly changing over to rain and/or freezing rain by Saturday afternoon or evening. Any freezing rain in this area should be short lived with only minor accumulations with minimal impacts.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 3. Tonight through Fri afternoon) .

A gale force low is currently moving just south of the western Aleutians. This low will move across the Aleutian chain today with gale force winds from the Island and southward with areas of moderate rain. The rest of the Bering will be relatively quiet today with cool northerly flow with a few rain and snow showers with small craft winds or less. By Friday morning storm force winds will develop south of the AKPEN as the low deepens south of the AKPEN on Friday. This will bring rain to the southern AKPEN and rain and snow to northern parts of the AKPEN with a couple of inches of snow accumulations Friday and Saturday. Storm force winds will continue through Friday night south of the AKPEN. Otherwise the central and western Bering and Aleutians will see relatively quiet weather with light winds Friday afternoon though Saturday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday).

Bering/Aleutians . Strong gales and seas up to 15 ft over eastern Bering will continue until Sat night. The next emerging low over the southern Bering Sun afternoon could potentially elevate seas and winds to gales near Pribilof Islands Sun night into early Mon morning. Elsewhere, moderate seas and small crafts will continue sporadically across the forecast area. For this reason, forecast confidence is above average.

Gulf of Alaska . A nearly stationary complex North Pacific low and its associated front are responsible for persistent gales and long period swells of 20 to 25 ft across the Gulf through at least early Sun morning. As seas and winds diminish Sun morning, the potential for gales to return is favorable especially around the Barren Islands and east of Kodiak Island in response to the next North Pacific low trekking toward the Gulf Sun afternoon. The latter system will again bring another strong episode of long period swells up to 22 ft on Monday especially over the central Gulf. For other parts of the Gulf during most of the forecast period, small craft conditions will continue into early next week. Overall, forecast confidence remains above average.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday).

GFS and ECM differ quite a bit on the placement of the expected lows transiting through the Bering and Gulf of Alaska. However, solutions agreed to highlight strong winds and potentially heavy rain across the Gulf and Prince William Sound, and over the Aleutian Chain and Southwest Coast. Clearly, a firm ridge over the State will maintain a quiet forecast for mostly inland portions of Southcentral and Southwest. A frontal system over the eastern Gulf will bring strong winds and rain across Prince William Sound and eastern Kenai Peninsula starting Mon afternoon until late Mon night. Meanwhile, strong winds and rain from a North Pacific low will enter the central Aleutians beginning Mon afternoon. A developing front associated with the latter system will then shift through the eastern Bering into the Southwest Coast by early Tue morning, leading to increased rain and stronger winds along the gaps and passes. Both systems over the Bering and Gulf will bring a lot of tropical moisture and warm temperatures days ahead.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . High Wind Watch 101 125. MARINE . Storm Warning 155 Gale Warning 120 130-132 136-138 150 160 165 170-174 176 177 351 352. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BL SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . TM SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . RC MARINE/LONG TERM . KO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dillingham, Dillingham Airport, AK14 mi24 minN 47.00 miLight Freezing Drizzle25°F23°F92%1004.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADL

Wind History from ADL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW7W644NW4W5000N4E3E6E5E6E5E6E6E7E7NE7NE9NE10NE9N14
2 days agoN15N14
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Tide / Current Tables for Nushagak Bay (Clark's Point), Alaska
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Nushagak Bay (Clark's Point)
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:09 AM AKDT     6.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:10 AM AKDT     12.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:43 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:06 PM AKDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 03:33 PM AKDT     2.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:47 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:51 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:19 PM AKDT     19.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.7
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Tide / Current Tables for Snag Point, Nushagak Bay, Alaska
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Snag Point
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Thu -- 05:15 AM AKDT     5.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:43 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:59 AM AKDT     12.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:06 PM AKDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 04:40 PM AKDT     1.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:49 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:08 PM AKDT     19.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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