Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boston, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

A trough of low pressure will gradually move up the east and into the region through Wednesday. Moist onshore flow will continue to gradually erode any dry air in place. Enough lift should be present to generate a few rounds of mainly light showers through Wednesday night. Highest chances of showers continue to favor NE PA with closer proximity to the low with the lowest coverage near the NY Thruway corridor. Given the clouds and showers temperatures likely will only fall into the 50's tonight rise only into the 60's Wednesday and back down into the 50's Wednesday night.
Model QPF throughout still looks to be less than half an inch, so no flood issues are expected.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
225 PM Update:

A trough will move through the region on Thursday with additional scattered showers. Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, but with not much CAPE or shear to work with, any thunderstorms should be rather weak and short- lived. The trough will push east of the area Thursday night and will be replaced by brief weak ridging, which will allow the coverage of any showers or thunderstorms to diminish Thursday night. Highs on Thursday are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s, with mid 50s to lower 60s expected for lows Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
225 PM Update:

Not too much has changed for the long term period.
Unsettled/showery weather continues through the weekend, before a drying trend may begin for the Monday/Tuesday timeframe, along with cooler temperatures.

415 AM Update...

A warm front will pass through the region Friday bringing showers to the region early in the day. Being in the warm sector during the afternoon will likely lead to the environment becoming unstable, though given the early shower activity, there is uncertainty if conditions will be as unstable as what models are showing. Even still, there will likely be enough instability and shear to support at least isolated thunderstorms Friday. A weak cold front is not far behind and moves through the region Saturday with another chance for showers and thunderstorms.

A stacked low moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast on Sunday. Showery conditions continue through the second half of the weekend as a result. More notably is the colder airmass this system brings with it as temperatures begin to trend cooler. There is some uncertainty on how quickly this system moves through and if wraparound moisture will leave behind some lingering showers for Monday. Though drier air does move in from the west and lead to break from the showers.

Temperatures this period start out in the 70s and 80s but after the low moves through, highs will be back in the 60s early next week.
Lows will follow a less drastic cooling trend though temperatures at night early next week may struggle to reach the 50s.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Timing the onset of the MVFR restrictions is a bit lower confidence than ideal given the advancing area of rain is meeting some dry air that is in place. KRME and KSYR may not see any restrictions until the overnight. Further south for KBGM, KITH and KELM spotty showers may lead to transitory MVFR ceilings and visibilities till tonight when MVFR conditions will dominate. Potential does exist for IFR ceilings at KBGM and KITH overnight. Confidence is higher for MVFR restrictions throughout the TAF period at KAVP where showers are already occurring

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through Sunday...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunder possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.