Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rome, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
640 PM update...
Cool moist clouds are lingering over central/northern NY this evening with enough dry air mixing in west of I-81 and across northeast PA to produce mostly sunny skies a few hours before sunset. The next shield of high clouds is already impinging upon the region from the southwest and will spread across the area tonight. Rain is still expected to push in late tonight and Wed morning. No significant changes made to the forecast at this time.

245 PM Update...

Stubborn stratus continues to slowly scatter out this afternoon with surface high pressure keeping cold air advection going. A small ridge builds in this afternoon, though with a shortwave trough moving up the Ohio River Valley will spread mid and high clouds into the region this evening and overnight. This will limit the frost potential to isolated valleys in higher elevations of Steuben County where there will be clear skies for a few hours.

Rain moves in overnight, likely around sunrise for NEPA and a few hours after sunrise for the Southern Tier. Despite the southerly flow aloft, cool air at 850 mb that had just been advected through is brought back in so temperatures will remain on the cool side with the rain during the day. The NAM. GFS, and Hires Euro all bring in several lobes of 500 mb vorticity as another upper level low propagates into the region. This will mean multiple rounds of heavier rain showers tomorrow and tomorrow night. First round will be during the day and the next round overnight will bring a quarter to half inch of rain in each batch. The lower amounts in the valleys and then higher amounts in the Catskills and Poconos on south to southeast facing slopes.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
300 PM Update...

Upper level low rotates over the Great Lakes bringing moisture into the region on Thursday. This along with a surface low will allow showers to continue along with cool temperatures. With 850 mb temperatures 3 to 5 degrees C and northwest flow, highs will struggle to reach the upper 40s to low 50s. A second surface low is expected to develop off the NJ coast Thursday afternoon, which will help pump Atlantic moisture into the region through Thursday night.
This will allow rain showers to continue with QPF amounts under half an inch expected. Higher amounts are expected along the upslope elevations of the Catskills, Poconos and higher elevations in the Finger Lakes Region.

Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s to low 40s. These two upper level features merge by Friday allowing showers to continue as moisture continues to rotate around the low. Lake effect showers will also be possible Friday night into Saturday with NW flow and 850mb temperatures near freezing. Temperatures will remain cool with highs in the 50s across the region and lows in the 40s. Highs Thursday and Friday will be 15-20 degrees below normal, with lows around 10 degrees below normal.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
300 PM update...

Low continues to rotate before moving east and lifting on Saturday with Northwest flow following behind. Cool air continues to get advected into the region keeping temperatures on Saturday in the 50s. Weak shortwaves and cold air over the lakes will continue to develop rain showers Saturday. Overall upper level trough holds for most of this period with additional short waves moving east bringing multiple rounds of showers through Sunday. Model guidance shows an upper level ridge attempting to build in on Monday which could allow dry conditions to briefly return, although there are other model variations that keep showers in the forecast. Temperatures begin to rebound back into the 60s Sunday through Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

2 AM Update VFR conditions are currently in place across the region at this time. These conditions should continue through roughly 11Z this morning before low ceilings and rain showers quickly move in from the south. MVFR restrictions due to ceilings are expected first between 11-15Z before visibility and ceiling restrictions down to IFR in rain after 14-16Z at AVP, ELM, BGM and ITH. The SYR and RME terminals will take slightly longer to see impactful restrictions...most likely after 13-15Z for MVFR.

Once the rain moves in, it will continue steadily through the end of this taf period with widespread IFR to low end MVFR Fuel Alternate restrictions predominating over the region

Winds will remain east/southeast through the period with gusts 15 to 25 kts at times this afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Late Tonight into Saturday...Wet pattern with restrictions and waves of rain showers likely.

Sunday...Drying out with only isolated showers, mostly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.