Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Arroyo, PR
May 28, 2023 8:15 PM CST (02:15 UTC)
Sunrise 5:15AM Sunset 6:00PM Moonrise 2:17PM Moonset 1:02AM
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arroyo, PR
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location: -34.81, -58.22
Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
(on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definitionFXCA62 TJSJ 290145 AFDSJU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 945 PM AST Sun May 28 2023
New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
UPDATE
Issued at 911 PM AST Sun May 28 2023
All but some very weak showers have persisted over land, but showers have continued over the Mona channel west of Puerto Rico.
Showers up stream are visible and the dry slot shown in the GFS may not bring as much drying as previously expected. Nevertheless showers are forming up stream especially southeast of Saint Croix.
Also the GFS is bringing in a NW-SE oriented trough at 700 mb that has promise of brining showers in, but behind it. The evening sounding from San Juan, Puerto Rico at 29/00Z showed somewhat dry air between 6-21 Kft and the sounding is non-buoyant between 7-12 Kft, making shower activity more difficult until the next moist area moves in Monday morning. Very little change to forecast thinking. The GFS shows a warming trend through Sunday after tomorrow and flow with a southerly component is seen in the lower layers throughout the next 10 days.
SYNOPSIS
As a plume of moisture continues to move west, away from the region, drier air is filtering in from the east. Only some passing shower activity is expected tonight across windward sectors and drier conditions are expected to start the workweek.
Diurnal and local effects will promote convective activity focused on west-northwest Puerto Rico, with streamers also possible. A limited to possibly elevated excessive heat risk is also expected, especially on and after Tuesday when winds become more southeasterly.
SHORT TERM
Tonight through Tuesday...
The plume of moisture continues to move west, away from the islands, prompting a decrease in humidity for the region. Satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) values show columnar moisture of up to around 2.2 inches across the region, with the highest amounts over western sectors. Any activity from this afternoon, currently mainly over northwestern and south-central Puerto Rico, will continue to gradually dissipate this evening. Ridging will remain aloft during the period with dry air in the mid levels, limiting vertical convective development. A drier air mass with normal, for this time of the year, PWAT values continues to filter into the area from the east. Only passing shower activity is expected tonight across windward sectors of the islands, with overall fair, but warm, weather persisting. Model guidance continues to indicate drier conditions for tomorrow, Memorial Day, and Tuesday.
PWAT values are expected to be at normal values with patches of either drier or more humid air filtering in. Diurnal and local effects along with available moisture will still result in convective development each afternoon. This activity will mainly focus over west-northwest Puerto Rico under generally east to east-southeast winds, with streamer development also possible.
This could result in ponding of water on roadways and poorly drained areas, as well as possible urban and small stream flooding. A limited to possibly elevated excessive heat risk is also expected each late morning into afternoon hours for the rest of the short term forecast period, especially on Tuesday when winds become more southeasterly. Heat indices will reach 102 degrees or higher tomorrow, mainly for the lower elevations across northern and western Puerto Rico. Heat exhaustion is possible with prolonged exposure.
LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...
/FROM PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 319 AM AST Sun May 28 2023/.
A mid-to upper-level ridge pattern is expected to prevail over the islands through the long term period. This will promote drier air intrusion and a relative warm 500 mb temperature, around minus 5 degrees Celsius. This should limiting the vertical development of showers in general. However, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon over portions of western PR due to the combination of the available low level moisture, daytime heating, and the sea breeze convergence. Heat indices should increase between 108-112 degrees Fahrenheit, triggering Heat Advisory criteria once again across portions of the lower elevations of northern and western PR, as winds acquire a southeasterly wind component by midweek.
In terms of moisture content, the precipitable water content is expected to remain between 1.50-1.75 inches through at least Thursday, increasing near 2.00 inches from Friday into the weekend as deep layer trough approaches the area from the west.
Therefore, seasonal weather conditions should prevail across the islands in general, with passing showers moving across windward areas during the night and early morning hours, followed by diurnally induced afternoon showers with isolated thunderstorms over western PR each day, and increasing in coverage late in the forecast cycle due to the proximity of the trough.
AVIATION
Generally VFR conds til arnd 29/15Z over PR and the USVI. Sounding showed east flow in the lowest 5 kft, but land breezes will dominate at the surface at less than 7 kts. Sea breezes will dvlp aft 29/13Z followed by SHRA/TSRA dvlpg NW & interior PR aft 29/16Z with impacts likely arnd TJBQ. Brief MVFR or worse cannot be ruled out. Streamer in E could impact TJSJ, but deteriorated conds unlikely. Max winds W-NW (with height) 45-55 kts btwn FL420-490.
MARINE
Seas up to 5 feet or less are expected for the Atlantic waters tonight, seas at 4 feet or less elsewhere. Light to moderate generally east winds will persists through at least tomorrow, Monday. More southeasterly winds return for Tuesday onwards. Relatively tranquil seas are expected to persist during the next several days. Tonight, there is a moderate risk of rip currents for the beaches of northern Puerto Rico; low risk elsewhere. This moderate risk will be confined to northwest and north-central Puerto Rico Monday.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
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