Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Point, TX
July 2, 2024 11:22 PM CST (05:22 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:21 AM Sunset 6:08 PM Moonrise 2:57 AM Moonset 4:09 PM |
PMZ028 Oaxaca E Of Puerto Angel Within 300 Nm Offshore Including The Gulf Of Tehuantepec- 737 Pm Pdt Tue Jul 2 2024
Tonight - SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in S to sw swell. Period 17 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wed - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in S to sw swell. Period 16 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in S to sw swell. Period 17 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thu - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in S to sw swell. Period 17 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt N of 14n, and W to nw 10 kt S of 14n. Seas 6 to 8 ft in S to sw swell. Period 15 seconds.
Fri - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in S to sw swell. Period 15 seconds.
Fri night - NW winds 10 kt N of 14n, and variable less than 5 kt S of 14n. Seas 5 to 7 ft in S to sw swell. Period 14 seconds.
Sat - NE winds 10 to 15 kt N of 14n, and variable less than 5 kt S of 14n. Seas 5 to 7 ft in S to sw swell. Period 13 seconds.
Sat night - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in S to sw swell. Period 13 seconds.
Sun - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in S to sw swell. Period 13 seconds.
Sun night - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in S to sw swell. Period 13 seconds.
PMZ005
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Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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FXUS64 KBRO 022306 AAA AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 606 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Slightly above normal temperatures and rain-free conditions across Deep South Texas will continue through the short term period as the region remains under the influence of mid/upper level ridging.
Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will maintain elevated humidity through tomorrow night, which will result in humid nights and hot afternoons. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. In combination with dew points in the 70s, heat indices will range from 100 to 110 degrees. We likely will not reach Heat Advisory criteria, but a Special Weather Statement may be needed to account for elevate heat indices. If you're spending time outdoors, make sure you are following the necessary precautions against the heat to reduce the risk of heat-related illnesses.
Otherwise, low temperatures will range from the mid 70s across the Northern Ranchlands to low 80s along the immediate coast.
While many of us are preparing for 4th of July holiday activities, now is a great time to review your hurricane season preparedness plans and keep an eye on the forecast track of Hurricane Beryl. Make sure you are relying on trusted sources of information, such as the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, media stations, local/county officials, etc. for the latest updates.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
For the start of the long term period a broad upper-level ridge looks to be situated over the southern US, with an upper level trough over the Northern Plains. Some model guidance is showing this trough deepening through the end of the week, with the ridge shifting further east. This would allow mid and upper level winds over Texas and the Western Gulf to shift more southeasterly to southerly by this weekend. Recent GFS runs have been fairly consistent with moving the ridge further east, while ECMWF runs are keeping the ridge intact over Texas and the Northern Gulf.
Through at least Friday, this pattern will continue to support light to moderate southeasterly winds at the surface with hot afternoon temperatures and near zero rain chances. Afternoon high temperatures look to remain in the mid 90s to just above 100. Heat indices look to peak around 110 Thursday and Friday afternoons, likely remaining just below Heat Advisory criteria, though Heat Advisories can’t be ruled out.
Moving into the weekend, the primary concern for the forecast will likely be Hurricane Beryl, which is currently a CAT 4 Hurricane in the Central Caribbean. The latest NHC forecast has Beryl weakening over the next few days as the system moves into a region of unfavorable wind shear. The official track then has the system making landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula before reemerging into the Bay of Campeche. At this point, the forecast becomes very uncertain as model guidance begins to diverge on both the track and intensity of the storm. Uncertainty in the position of the ridge mentioned earlier, the shear profile over the Western Gulf, and how the land interaction will weaken the system make it difficult to forecast any potential impacts for Deep South Texas at this time. Forecast confidence should improve over the next few days, painting a better picture of potential impacts for the region. That being said, now would be a great time to make sure you have a plan and are prepared for hurricane season if you haven’t already done so.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all aerodromes through the TAF period. Winds between 10 and 15 kts will continue before decreasing overnight. By Wednesday afternoon, winds will once again increase with southeasterly winds gusting up to 25 kts.
MARINE
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Tonight through Wednesday night...Light to moderate south winds and low to moderate seas are expected through the period as surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico persists.
Thursday through next Tuesday...High pressure over the Northern Gulf will likely support light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight seas through the later half of the week. Going into the weekend, the forecast becomes less certain as Hurricane Beryl likely enters the Gulf. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Beryl weakening over the next couple of days before crossing the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and reemerging in the Bay of Campeche as a Tropical Storm. Beyond that, models diverge on both the intensity and track of Beryl, making it difficult to forecast impacts for the Lower Texas Coast. At least some uptick in wave heights and swell period will be likely, but the extent to which they increase will depend on the exact track and intensity. Forecast confidence should improve over the next few days, painting a better picture of potential impacts for the region.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 94 82 95 / 0 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 77 96 77 97 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 79 98 80 99 / 0 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 97 79 99 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 88 83 89 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 80 93 / 0 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 606 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Slightly above normal temperatures and rain-free conditions across Deep South Texas will continue through the short term period as the region remains under the influence of mid/upper level ridging.
Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will maintain elevated humidity through tomorrow night, which will result in humid nights and hot afternoons. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. In combination with dew points in the 70s, heat indices will range from 100 to 110 degrees. We likely will not reach Heat Advisory criteria, but a Special Weather Statement may be needed to account for elevate heat indices. If you're spending time outdoors, make sure you are following the necessary precautions against the heat to reduce the risk of heat-related illnesses.
Otherwise, low temperatures will range from the mid 70s across the Northern Ranchlands to low 80s along the immediate coast.
While many of us are preparing for 4th of July holiday activities, now is a great time to review your hurricane season preparedness plans and keep an eye on the forecast track of Hurricane Beryl. Make sure you are relying on trusted sources of information, such as the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, media stations, local/county officials, etc. for the latest updates.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
For the start of the long term period a broad upper-level ridge looks to be situated over the southern US, with an upper level trough over the Northern Plains. Some model guidance is showing this trough deepening through the end of the week, with the ridge shifting further east. This would allow mid and upper level winds over Texas and the Western Gulf to shift more southeasterly to southerly by this weekend. Recent GFS runs have been fairly consistent with moving the ridge further east, while ECMWF runs are keeping the ridge intact over Texas and the Northern Gulf.
Through at least Friday, this pattern will continue to support light to moderate southeasterly winds at the surface with hot afternoon temperatures and near zero rain chances. Afternoon high temperatures look to remain in the mid 90s to just above 100. Heat indices look to peak around 110 Thursday and Friday afternoons, likely remaining just below Heat Advisory criteria, though Heat Advisories can’t be ruled out.
Moving into the weekend, the primary concern for the forecast will likely be Hurricane Beryl, which is currently a CAT 4 Hurricane in the Central Caribbean. The latest NHC forecast has Beryl weakening over the next few days as the system moves into a region of unfavorable wind shear. The official track then has the system making landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula before reemerging into the Bay of Campeche. At this point, the forecast becomes very uncertain as model guidance begins to diverge on both the track and intensity of the storm. Uncertainty in the position of the ridge mentioned earlier, the shear profile over the Western Gulf, and how the land interaction will weaken the system make it difficult to forecast any potential impacts for Deep South Texas at this time. Forecast confidence should improve over the next few days, painting a better picture of potential impacts for the region. That being said, now would be a great time to make sure you have a plan and are prepared for hurricane season if you haven’t already done so.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all aerodromes through the TAF period. Winds between 10 and 15 kts will continue before decreasing overnight. By Wednesday afternoon, winds will once again increase with southeasterly winds gusting up to 25 kts.
MARINE
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Tonight through Wednesday night...Light to moderate south winds and low to moderate seas are expected through the period as surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico persists.
Thursday through next Tuesday...High pressure over the Northern Gulf will likely support light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight seas through the later half of the week. Going into the weekend, the forecast becomes less certain as Hurricane Beryl likely enters the Gulf. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Beryl weakening over the next couple of days before crossing the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and reemerging in the Bay of Campeche as a Tropical Storm. Beyond that, models diverge on both the intensity and track of Beryl, making it difficult to forecast impacts for the Lower Texas Coast. At least some uptick in wave heights and swell period will be likely, but the extent to which they increase will depend on the exact track and intensity. Forecast confidence should improve over the next few days, painting a better picture of potential impacts for the region.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 94 82 95 / 0 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 77 96 77 97 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 79 98 80 99 / 0 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 97 79 99 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 88 83 89 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 80 93 / 0 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
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Brownsville, TX,
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