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PMZ028 Oaxaca E Of Puerto Angel Within 300 Nm Offshore Including The Gulf Of Tehuantepec- 643 Pm Pdt Fri Sep 22 2023
Tonight..E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in S to sw swell. Period 15 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated tstms through the night.
Sat..N of 14n, N winds 15 to 20 kt, shifting to W to nw 10 kt in the afternoon. S of 14n, ne to E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in S to sw swell. Period 15 seconds.
Sat night..N of 14n, nw winds 10 to 15 kt. S of 14n, se winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 14 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated tstms through the night.
Sun..W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt N of 14n, and variable less than 5 kt S of 14n. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 14 seconds.
Sun night..W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 12 seconds.
Mon..NW to N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 12 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 11 seconds.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt N of 14n, and N 10 kt S of 14n. Seas 4 to 6 ft in S swell. Period 14 seconds.
Tue night..NW to N winds 15 to 20 kt N of 14n, and N 10 kt S of 14n. Seas 4 to 6 ft in S swell. Period 18 seconds.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Period 17 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in S to sw swell. Period 16 seconds.

PMZ005
No data

FXUS64 KBRO 231129 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 629 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Mid-level ridging parked over northern Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across Deep South Texas through the weekend.
Well above normal daytime high temperatures are expected through forecast period. Highs today and Sunday will range from the upper 80s at the beaches, the mid to upper 90s near the coast and the 100s mainly along and west of I-69E corridor. The dry air in place should continue to reduce the heat indices and keep the region out of heat advisory conditions. However the heat indices are still expected to be in the range of 105-110 degrees in the afternoon. Low temperatures are expected to be in the 70s with a few places in the lower 80s for tonight.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

The mid-level ridge anchored over Mexico and extending north to the Southwest United States will give way to a short wave trough digging southeast from the Southern High Plains toward the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday night. Most of the trough energy will continue east, but a portion of the energy will continue south to over the CWA by Tuesday. Moisture convergence along a weak surface front or boundary will enhance rain chances on Tuesday, with isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon. This pattern will also extend a slight easing of hot weather begun on Monday. Behind the weak boundary, which will stall out in the area, will be back door high pressure, tending to temporarily disrupt the seasonal southeast winds with a backing to a more easterly direction. By Wednesday, a bit of a return flow will enhance moisture along coastal areas and eastern sections. Guidance supports daily sea breeze type pops to close out the work week. Rip current risk will remain mainly low, and there are no significant fire weather or heat advisory concerns through the long term period.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Mostly clear skies and light winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. High pressure at the surface and aloft is expected to maintain VFR conditions at local aerodromes for the next 24 hours. Light southeast winds early this morning will increase and become moderate later this morning into the afternoon. Winds are expected to become light later this evening.

MARINE
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Now through Sunday...Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds around 14 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas slightly under 2.6 feet with a period of 4 seconds at 0140 CDT/0650 UTC. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast courtesy of a modest pressure gradient. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions may briefly develop at times on the Laguna Madre and the Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 20 nautical miles offshore. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the the Gulf waters.

Sunday night through Wednesday night...Mainly light to moderate east winds and low to moderate seas will prevail. Early southeast winds will back to to east and may briefly become northeast around mid-week with a stalled front in the area. Marine showers and thunderstorms will be possible through much of the forecast. Small craft should exercise caution or small craft advisory conditions appear unlikely.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 98 80 97 79 / 10 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 100 76 99 74 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 102 79 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 103 78 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 83 89 82 / 10 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 96 79 95 77 / 10 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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