Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Potala Pastillo, PR

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Wednesday...

It was another pleasant day across the islands, with mild temperatures, no rainfall and just a few clouds in the sky. Moisture is lower than normal, as it is confirmed by the most recent satellite-derived precipitable water products. The rest of the evening hours are expected to be tranquil, with little to no rain in store. However, there is a cold front about 250 miles north of the islands and this system should approach the local waters in the overnight hours. The front is weak and will only bring a moderate increase in shower activity, thus the potential for flooding is very limited.

After the front moves through the islands, high pressure over the western Atlantic will keep the winds brisk, from the northeast at 15- 20 mph, and stronger gusts. The air mass will dry out once again, with very shallow (brief and weak) showers reaching the northeastern coast of Puerto Rico at times. Other than that, temperatures just a tad below normal will persist, especially during the overnight and early morning hours.

LONG TERM
Thursday through Sunday...
//from previous discussion//

A surface high moving towards the western Atlantic will help promote northeasterly steering flow to start the long term period.
Gradually increasing precipitable water (PWAT) values is forecast, however they will still remain at below normal to low end normal values before Friday, around 1.2 in to 1.3 in, with only slightly more humid patches possible. Persistent mid-level ridging and a trade wind inversion will continue to keep most available moisture below 800 mb through most of the period.
Northeasterly winds will also promote a cooler temperatures across the islands, with model- estimated 925 mb temperatures at below normal to normal values. Maximum temperatures can reach the low to mid 80s (locally higher) across lower elevation areas of the islands. Minimum temperatures can reach the mid 50s to mid 60s across higher elevations of Puerto Rico, and from the upper 60s to mid 70s across lower elevations of the islands. Patchy fog can also be present during the overnight to early morning hours across sectors of interior Puerto Rico. With steering flow gaining a more easterly component, remnants of past frontal boundaries are forecast to move into the local islands from the east late Friday and into Saturday, promoting above normal, 1.5 to 1.9 in, precipitable water values and increased shower activity. Moisture in this value will persist into the end of the long term period.
Limited flooding impacts continue to be possible during these days as available moisture increases and shower activity is steered into the area.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions expected to prevail under mostly clear skies. Winds are from the NE at 9-14 kts, decreasing from 22-13Z. A cold front will move in tomorrow, with wind gusting at 15 to 20 kts from 14/13-22Z. Light SHRA will increase after 10Z for the Atlantic waters, potentially reaching TJBQ, TJSJ and TIST from 14/12-16Z.
Very brief periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings could be anticipated.

MARINE

A surface high-pressure moving eastward across the western Atlantic will promote light to moderate northeast winds over the next few days. While current long-period northerly swells are subsiding, additional pulses are expected by Tuesday and will once again deteriorate marine conditions, becoming hazardous for small craft, as they spread across the Atlantic waters and local passages during the second half of the workweek.

BEACH FORECAST

Additional pulses of swell are expected to reach the waters by tomorrow, maintaining deteriorated coastal condtions. A High Risk of Rip Currents will be in effect tonight throughout the workweek for the beaches of northern Puerto Rico, from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, St. Thomas and St. John. A High Risk of Rip Currents is also forecast for St. Croix by tomorrow night and last throughout the workweek. A High Surf Advisory will possibly be issued for some exposed areas as we approach the middle of the workweek.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 PM AST Thursday for AMZ711.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 6 PM AST Thursday for AMZ712-716-741.