Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ponce, PR

.Short Term(This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 321 PM AST Wed Feb 11 2026

Cloudiness spread from the eastern region to central and western region during the afternoon hours under up to breeze NE flow. This flow steered passing showers over the eastern region to north- central PR leaving low accumulations. Official and unofficial stations report temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s at lower elevations of the islands. Current satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) values indicate 1.25 to 1.55 inches (increasing southward), at normal to slightly above normal values for this time of the year. The 12Z sounding detected 1.28 inches of PWAT, a decrease from yesterday as drier air filtered in under the NE flow.
A broad surface high over the southwestern Atlantic will continue moving eastward towards the central Atlantic as a frontal low is moving into the western Atlantic. Under this pattern, steering flow will continue to veer this afternoon to tomorrow and remain breezy through tonight. Winds will become easterly tonight, before becoming southeasterly during the overnight hours into tomorrow, Thursday, and remaining southeasterly during the rest of the short term period. A weak mid-level ridge will remain over the region through early tomorrow, Thursday. Tomorrow into Friday, the same moisture field that affected the region earlier this week will return as it is steered back into the region by the southeasterly flow, as a short wave trough also approaches the region tomorrow night and also promotes deeper moisture. Moisture and instability during the short term period will peak tomorrow under this pattern. PWAT values will increase up to around 1.90 inches, above normal values for this time of the year. This will support stronger showers and up to a limited flooding risk over windward sectors during the morning and during the afternoon over interior to W and NW PR, and downwind of the local islands and El Yunque. Patchy fog will also develop over sectors of the interior. Cloud cover and above normal moisture will persist through late Friday afternoon as drier air moves in behind the moisture field. 925 temperatures will beginning a warming trend tomorrow and Friday under the southeasterly flow (reaching above normal values to 2 standard deviations above normal).

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Feb 11 2026

The inherited forecast remains on track as a weak upper-level trough approaches the local islands from the northwest. At the surface, a high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will continue shifting eastward, promoting light to moderate southeasterly winds through Sunday. Winds will then veer to an easterly direction as another surface high builds over the western Atlantic and migrates toward the central Atlantic through the remainder of the period.

During the upcoming workweek, a mid- to upper-level ridge is expected to establish across the region, fostering more stable conditions aloft. The latest precipitable water (PWAT) analysis supports this pattern, with values remaining within the seasonal climatological range of 1.20 to 1.55 inches. Under these conditions, trade-wind moisture will support brief passing morning showers across portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convective development over central and western Puerto Rico.

Given this setup, the flooding threat remains limited, particularly through the first half of the period. As a result, warm and humid conditions are expected to persist through the weekend and into early next week. We urge people to monitor the forecast for any changes.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 321 PM AST Wed Feb 11 2026

Mainly VFR conditions over the sites with persistent mid to upper level clouds for most sites. NNE winds will continue veering tonight, bcmg E late tonight and SE tomorrow. Speeds up to 15-20 knots with higher gusts through 11/23Z, increasing again at 11/13Z up to 15 knots from the SE with higher gusts. VCSH possible mainly at SJU/IST/ISX increasing in coverage tomorrow over the terminals; patchy fog over areas of interior PR.

MARINE
Issued at 321 PM AST Wed Feb 11 2026

A surface high pressure over the central to eastern Atlantic will promote gentle to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds through Saturday. An increase in moisture ahead of a short wave trough will promote cloudiness and an increase in showers Thursday and early Friday. The long period northerly swell will start to fade, but conditions remain are expected to remain hazardous for small craft operators. As a result, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Thursday afternoon across the Mona Passage and Atlantic waters. A gradual improvement expected from Thursday afternoon onward.

BEACH FORECAST
Issued at 321 PM AST Wed Feb 11 2026

Beach conditions remains hazardous, but the long-period northerly swell will start to fade tonight into tomorrow. Note that the High Surf Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM AST this afternoon, and High Rip Current Statement remain in effect through at least late Thursday. Life-threatening rip currents are likely in the surf zones. As the swell continues to gradually diminish, beach conditions should improve by Friday, however the risk of rip currents will remain moderate, which means life threatening rip currents are possible, beachgoers should remain cautious.Conditions may deteriorate once again next Sunday as the latest model guidance suggests some pulses of another long-period north-northwesterly swell spreading across the ATlantic waters.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ011-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for VIZ001.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.

High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716- 741.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for AMZ723-726-733- 742-745.