Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 7:07PM Saturday July 4, 2020 8:24 PM AST (00:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:52PMMoonset 5:13AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 418 Pm Ast Sat Jul 4 2020
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers through the day.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers through the night.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
AMZ700 418 Pm Ast Sat Jul 4 2020
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A surface high pressure across the north central atlantic will continue to result in moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds. Seas of up to 5 feet will continue through early Sunday, increasing slightly later during the day on Sunday into early next week. Isolated to scattered showers are expected across the local waters throughout the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce, PR
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location: 17.97, -66.62     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 042004 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 357 PM AST Sat Jul 4 2020

SYNOPSIS.

Showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon through Sunday. A weak tropical wave will increase rain chances across most of the region on Monday. Then a more substantial wave is forecast to enter the area on Wednesday, then a dry Saharan air mass will filter in from the east during the middle of the week.

SHORT TERM. Rest of the day through Monday .

Doppler radar shows showers and isolated thunderstorms across the western areas of Puerto Rico this afternoon. Currently, TJUA dual-pol total shows rainfall amounts of less than half of an inch. Also, a few showers have develop across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Saint Thomas this afternoon. The shower activity is a result of local and diurnal effects; this activity will wane as the surface begins to cool later this evening.

Sunday, a patch of drier air is progged to move through the area and limit the development of afternoon convection, nevertheless showers and isolated thunderstorm are possible as a result of significant surface heating, and local effects. Forecasting in the tropics can be tricky, and if the drier air mass moisten during the overnight, or tomorrow rain chances may need to be increased.

Monday, a weak tropical wave is progged to move into the area and increase rain changes for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The GFS shows precipitable water values peaking at 2.0 inches during the afternoon. However, at this time the GFS keeps the moisture confined between the 1000 mb to 800 mb leve; and keeps the mid-levels of the atmosphere rather dry. The GFS has mid- level RH values ranging from 30 to 50 percent. Additionally, the amount of cloud cover over the area will play a roll in the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures are forecast to be near the upper 80s to the lower 90s in lower elevations, and the lower to the middle 80s in higher elevations during the short-term period.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 447 PM AST Sat Jul 4 2020/

LONG TERM. Tuesday through Saturday .

Latest model guidance is indicating that another tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean and near the vicinity of the forecast area later Tuesday evening through at least the first half of Wednesday. However, there are differences in terms of timing as well as positioning of this wave amongst the guidance. The ECMWF model is the fastest as it brings the wave in late Tuesday afternoon and exiting the forecast area by early Wednesday morning. This model also shows the heaviest activity associated with this wave remaining to the south, therefore, the rainfall activity would not be that significant if this solution would to verify. The GFS model on the other hand is slower with bringing the wave in as it brings it in during the overnight hours of Tuesday into Wednesday with the moisture not exiting the area until Wednesday evening. This model is farther north with the moisture axis, therefore, more significant rainfall activity would be more likely under this solution. Given the varying solutions, confidence on the timing and how much of an impact the wave will have on the region is low at this time and we will need to wait for additional model cycles during the next couple of days for a better consensus.

After the wave passage, drier conditions as well as another episode of suspended Saharan Dust particulates will follow by the latter half of the work week. Therefore, fair weather conditions along with hazy skies can be expected. Afternoon convection will be possible across western Puerto Rico due to local and diurnal effects.

AVIATION.

VFR conditions with showers and thunderstorms across the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico. This activity could affect JMZ/JBQ. This activity is expected to diminish by 05/02Z with VRF conds continuing. Elsewhere sunny to partly cloudy with a few VCSH. Winds will continue from the E-ESE at 10 to 15 knots.

MARINE.

Choppy seas up to 5 feet will continue through Sunday, then seas are forecast to increase to 6 feet across the outer Atlantic waters on Monday.Small craft should exercise cautions across the local and outer waters. Winds will be from the east to southeast at 15 to 20 kts with higher gusts. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern beaches of Puerto Rico, and the northeastern beaches of Culebra, Vieques and the U.S Virgin Islands.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 79 90 80 90 / 40 30 30 60 STT 79 90 80 90 / 30 30 30 50

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . None. VI . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM . TW LONG TERM . JA PUBLIC DESK . TW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42085 - Southeast of Ponce, PR 8 mi85 min ESE 14 G 16 85°F 85°F3 ft1013.1 hPa (+0.6)
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 21 mi100 min E 8.9 85°F 1015 hPa75°F
MGIP4 - 9759110 - Magueyes Islands, PR 23 mi55 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 84°F 85°F1014.6 hPa
MGZP4 - 9759394 - Mayaguez, PR 33 mi55 min 85°F 87°F1015.3 hPa
PTRP4 43 mi30 min E 5.1 G 7 81°F
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 43 mi55 min ENE 16 G 19 84°F 86°F1015 hPa
41053 - San Juan, PR 44 mi85 min E 16 G 18 84°F 85°F1013.6 hPa (+0.7)
41115 - Rincon, Puerto Rico (181) 45 mi29 min 85°F2 ft

Wind History for Penuelas (Punta Guayanilla), PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for TJPS

Wind History from JPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------------------E5NE5NE5--Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Playa de Ponce, Puerto Rico
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Playa de Ponce
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:12 AM AST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:55 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:49 AM AST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:51 PM AST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:06 PM AST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:02 PM AST     0.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.80.80.80.70.60.40.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-00.10.30.50.60.70.80.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for Playa Cortada, Puerto Rico
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Playa Cortada
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:11 AM AST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:55 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:25 AM AST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:51 PM AST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:05 PM AST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:19 PM AST     0.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.80.80.80.70.60.30-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.10.30.50.60.70.80.90.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.