Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for La Parguera comunidad, PR

SHORT TERM
Today through Sunday...

Overnight satellite and radar observations indicated persistent variable to mostly cloudy skies across the region. Scattered to numerous showers and areas of persistent light rain were observed over the local waters, with some moving across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra, and eastern Puerto Rico. So far, the highest rainfall totals, slightly over an inch, were estimated in Humacao. Most of this rainfall occurred early in the night.
Overnight low temperatures ranged from the upper 60s in the higher elevations to the mid to upper 70s across eastern and southern Puerto Rico and the surrounding islands. Winds were generally light and variable over Puerto Rico due to land breezes, while easterly winds prevailed across the U.S. Virgin Islands. Expect similar activity to continue for the rest of the morning hours. Winds were generally light and variable over Puerto Rico due to land breezes, while easterly winds prevailed across the U.S. Virgin Islands. Wind gusts in the upper teens to lower 20s (mph) were still reported at nearshore buoys, suggesting that higher gusts may have reached coastal areas exposed to the wind.

The forecast remains on track, with a limited heat risk now expected across urban and coastal areas of the islands through the short-term period. This level of heat primarily affects individuals who are extremely sensitive to high temperatures, particularly when outdoors without effective cooling or adequate hydration. A slight adjustment in the forecast includes a modest expansion of areas with higher POPs for this afternoon, as the axis of the upper-level trough continues to linger over the Leeward Islands. With the trough's proximity still providing marginal instability aloft and sufficient moisture, the probability of shower and thunderstorm activity has increased.

Breezy conditions will persist through the weekend, as the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Caribbean due to the strengthening surface high over the central Atlantic. While faster steering winds may somewhat limit rainfall accumulations this afternoon, model soundings indicate unidirectional flow from the low to mid-levels, which could still support training showers and thunderstorms. This setup increases the potential for storms to redevelop upstream and repeatedly impact the same areas.

As a result, under an east-southeast wind flow, expect shower and thunderstorm development over the interior and northwestern portions of Puerto Rico. Streamers downwind of the smaller islands, as well as from El Yunque into the San Juan metro area, cannot be ruled out.
Overall, an elevated flooding threat is expected over western Puerto Rico, with a more limited risk across the eastern third of the island due to morning and afternoon shower activity. Southern Puerto Rico is likely to experience minimal rainfall.

Similar weather conditions are expected through the weekend, with slightly favorable dynamics aloft as the trough continues to shift eastward. Shower and thunderstorm activity will follow the typical diurnal pattern and will largely depend on moisture availability. On Saturday, a limited flooding risk is expected across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon, as moisture levels drop to below-normal levels. By Sunday, moisture levels are expected to rebound, resulting in a pattern similar to today, elevated flooding risk in the west and a limited risk over eastern Puerto Rico due to overnight and morning showers.




LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...

A variable weather pattern is very likely for the next workweek.
A surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will build and migrate eastward, promoting mostly southeasterly winds. The latest model guidance highlights the approach of an upper- level trough from the northeast of the local region that will bring instability aloft. Additionally, the tropical wave located at 38W is likely to approach the Caribbean but remain south of the forecast area by Monday night. However, moisture associated with the tropical wave will pool into the region, increasing low to mid-level moisture content. Ensemble members keep agreeing, showing 40 - 50 % of seeing near above- normal Precipitable Water values. In terms of instability, lower 250 mb heights and colder 500 mb temperatures (around -8.5 Celsius) should enhance deep convection.
Additionally, the Galvez- Davison Index (GDI) suggests the potential of thunderstorm activity across the CWA during that period. However, a factor that could limit deep convection activity could be the Saharan Dust layer that is anticipated to approach the Caribbean Basin now earlier than expected. But since uncertainty remains high regarding the time of arrival and considering local effects, the most likely scenario would be moderate to locally strong showers and isolated thunderstorms moving over the windward sections during Morning night, and early Tuesday, while convection activity is likely to develop over interior and western/northwestern Puerto Rico. Based on that, the flood threat will remain elevated along the aforementioned areas.

From the latest discussion, the deterministic model guidance showed GFS and ECMWF highlighting a less humid pattern for the second part of the workweek. Ensemble members continue showing a decrease of PWAT values to near below climatological normals by Wednesday due to the Saharan Dust layer approaching the region earlier compared to older solutions. Based on the latest guidance, the highest concentrations should remain south of the CWA but most moderate concentrations may be observed in the southern half of the forecast area. This layer could inhibit the deep convection activity during the afternoons, without triggering the upper-level dynamics. However, as mentioned in the previous discussion, available moisture below 850 mb levels, daytime heating, and local effects would still enhance isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly along interior and western/northwestern Puerto Rico.

Above-normal temperatures are still expected for the second part of the workweek, being Thursday the warmest day. A limited risk very likely along most urban and coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with an elevated threat along northern and western portions of Puerto Rico.




AVIATION

(06Z TAFs)

Afternoon SHRA/TSRA will generate MVFR to brief IFR conditions across TJSJ/TJBQ between 23/16-22Z. VCSH possible across USVI terminals throughout the period. Light and variable winds across PR terminals and E winds at 5-10 knots across USVI terminals. Winds will increase to 12-18 knots after 23/14Z, with sea breeze variations and higher gusts, particularly near SHRA/TSRA.




MARINE

A building surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds for the next few days. Isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop across the regional waters, particularly across the western coastal waters of Puerto Rico each afternoon. Hence, small craft should exercise caution.




BEACH FORECAST

For today, the risk of rip currents will remain low for the beaches and coastal areas of Puerto Rico, St. Thomas and St. John, with the exemption of St. Croix which is now under a moderate risk.
With winds increasing through the weekend, the moderate risk will spread along northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra. Beachgoers must be aware of the current conditions and exercise caution when visiting beaches with possible life- threatening rip currents.




SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.