Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Playita Cortada, PR

.Short Term(This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 220 PM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

Calm weather conditions with mostly sunny skies prevailed across the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the morning hours.
Showers embedded in the easterlies moved over the US Virgin Islands and the windward sections of Puerto Rico at times. Ponding of water along roads and in poorly drained areas was observed during this activity. Around noon, showers moved inland across the interior and western sections of PR. This activity will continue into the evening hours. Winds were mainly from the east at 15 to 20 mph, but locally higher near showers and thunderstorms. The St Croix ASOS measured a wind gust of 36 mph (31 kt) this morning, while at SJU airport, the maximum wind gust was around 28 mph (24 kt). Maximum temperatures were in the mid-80s or upper 80s along the coast and in urban areas, and in the upper 70s or low 80s in the mountains and valleys.

The ridge in the upper atmosphere will gradually weaken later tonight and into Sunday evening as an upper-level trough moves in from the west. This change is expected to increase instability, especially on Sunday afternoon and evening. As the trough amplifies over the Northeast Caribbean early next week, it will create an inverted trough by Monday or Tuesday.

At the surface, the interaction between a surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic and a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic will likely support breezy to windy trade wind conditions through at least Monday, when the surface trough will weaken the local pressure gradient.

Given this pattern, there is a moderate (30-50%) chance of occasional passing showers across the islands, especially over the windward areas. This afternoon into the evening, showers are expected to spread into the interior and western Puerto Rico, with a moderate (40-50%) to high (60-70%) chance of rain. There is a slight risk of flooding rains and isolated thunderstorms across portions of the US Virgin Islands and eastern, interior, and western Puerto Rico.

Although conditions are likely to be more unstable on Saturday and even more by Monday, tradewind showers will continue at times, with a moderate (30-50%) chance. These showers may extend inland and into western Puerto Rico by the afternoon, with a moderate (40-50%) to high (60%) chance of rain, especially across the southwest quadrant due to the trade winds.

The atmospheric instability parameters indicate an increasing trend in available instability over the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico between Sunday and Monday, as 250 mb heights drop below normal values (25th percentile), suggesting the presence of an amplifying trough aloft. Additionally, 500 mb temperatures will drop, cooling below normal, and steep lapse rates were observed at low and mid levels, which could promote the formation of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Thus, if conditions materialize, we may see isolated to scattered thunderstorms as well as a slight to elevated risk of flooding rains late Sunday afternoon into the evening and by Monday afternoon.

.Long Term(Tuesday through next Friday)...
Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

The forecast remains on track. From Tuesday into Wednesday, expect northeasterly winds to weaken gradually. Precipitable water (PWAT) values show fluctuating moisture levels but, overall, remain near normal for this time of year (1.50–1.75 inches). This moisture, combined with the northeasterly flow, will support periods of passing showers, mainly affecting windward areas.
Afternoon convection also remains possible, particularly across interior and southwestern Puerto Rico, where brief heavy downpours may develop.

An upper-level trough will linger over the region through midweek, and we will need to continue monitoring its evolution to determine whether any of its features begin to reflect at the surface and potentially influence local weather conditions.

Drier air is still expected to filter in, with PWAT values dropping below 1.4 inches, accompanied by continued breezy easterly winds by the weekend. Temperatures at 925 mb are forecast to rise to near- average values, supporting seasonal surface temperatures. No heat- related risks are anticipated at this time.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 220 PM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

The 29/12Z sounding showed E winds up to 22 kt thru FL050, with latest VAD wind profile giving a similar trend, supporting continued low-lvl E flow. Mainly VFR thru period with E flow 10–20 kt and ocnl higher gusts. Aftn SHRA/TSRA psbl mainly over interior to W PR, with VCTS impacting mostly TJPS/TJBQ and VCSH/SHRA impacting rest of terminals at times. Brief MVFR in heavier showers, otherwise P6SM with SCT/BKN 025–050 diminishing aft 30/00Z.

MARINE
Issued at 220 PM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

A surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic, interacting with a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic, will promote fresh to strong trade winds this weekend into early next week. This will result in choppy to rough seas across most offshore waters and passages, particularly those offshore Atlantic waters. An upper-level trough will amplify from the west over the Northeast Caribbean from late Sunday afternoon into early next week, inducing an inverted surface trough east of the Lesser Antilles by Monday and closer to the local islands by Tuesday. This atmospheric feature will increase the risk of thunderstorms across the local waters early next week.

BEACH FORECAST
Issued at 220 PM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

The risk of life-threatening rip currents is moderate along north- and east-facing beaches in northwestern, eastern, and southeastern Puerto Rico, as well as in Vieques, Culebra, and the US Virgin Islands. This risk will continue throughout the forecast period.
In other areas, while the risk is low, dangerous rip currents can still occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.