Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Playita Cortada, PR

SHORT TERM
Today through Friday...

Showers will continue to increase this morning across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico through the rest of the morning hours. Ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage areas is expected with this shower activity. Some showers could grow into thunderstorms before noon across the mountain ranges of PR and last through the evening hours. Due to already saturated soils and above normal streamflows from previous days heavy rainfall, quick river rises, mudslides, and flash flooding is likely with these thunderstorms.

The wet weather pattern will continue through the rest of the short- term period as abundant moisture content(PWAT above 2.00 inches)
lingers over the region. Later today, a cut off low is expected to develop just northeast of the Leeward Islands from a mid-to upper level trough over the central Atlantic. Global guidance suggest that another but weak low reflected at the mid-levels will develop near Cuba and Hispaniola on Thursday. These features will further enhance instability across the northeastern Caribbean with colder than normal 500 mb temperatures around -9C, and as they slowly drift eastward a 75-80 kt jet segment will meander over the islands through Friday. Therefore, thunderstorms over the next few days could produce frequent lightning, small hail, and strong gusty winds as well as further supporting long lasting rainfall activity over the islands. Residents and visitors are urge to monitor the weather conditions and remain vigilant to take necessary action to protect life and property from the expected flooding impacts.

For more information please refer to the latest updates from the Hydrologic Outlook(ESFSJU).

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=SJU&wwa =hydrologic%20outlook

LONG TERM
Saturday through Wednesday...

The long-term forecast suffered some changes. Winds on Saturday will remain from the northeast, and will shift from the southeast due to a surface high pressure building in the Western Atlantic and the induced low in the Central Atlantic moving southward. The latest model ensemble members are shifting to a wetter scenario this weekend, with PWAT values above climatological normal (1.8 - 2.0 inches). The 500 mb temperatures should remain colder (-7 to -8 Celsius), and the latest model guidance keeps suggesting that the upper dynamics will remain stronger with winds in the 250 mb layer around 70 knots, providing ventilation aloft. Additionally, the Galvez-Davison Index (GDI) also displays the potential of isolated thunderstorms mainly in the afternoons. Although model guidance keeps suggesting drier air filtering in the upper levels due to ridging, above-normal low to mid-level moisture content in the region will trigger shower and thunderstorm activity in the afternoons along interior Puerto Rico, moving into northern/western Puerto Rico in the early evenings. Due to the heavy rainfall, saturated soils, and soaring rivers, the risk of flooding will remain limited, with mostly ponding of water in roadways, urban, and poorly drained areas, along urban and small stream flooding.

Another mid to upper-level trough should move north of the Caribbean, and induce a surface low. The interaction of this low and a surface high pressure in the Central Atlantic could promote southerly winds throughout the period. With this pattern, winds may pool well above-normal moisture content into the region by late Tuesday, with PWAT values around 2.0 - 2.2 inches for the rest of the forecast period. The best moisture content might stay in the east side of the CWA, impacting eastern sections of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. However, deeper afternoon convection should develop over interior Puerto Rico, elevating once again the flooding potential.

With the southerly component in the winds and abundant moisture, is likely to observe near above-normal temperatures during this period. However, the heat risk will remain low for the rest of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR early in the fcst period. However, SHRA increasing from the Atlantic and eastern waters of the islands will move at times across the USVI/Eastern PR terminals thru the morning hours. This can lead to brief MVFR cigs. SHRA/TSRA will develop btw 30/15z-23z over the mountains and drift mainly southward under 8-14 kt ENE winds. Therefore, expect mtn tops obscd across PR and tempo MVFR to IFR conds mainly at TJPS. Elsewhere, -RA/VCTS expected thru the evening hours.

MARINE

A surface high pressure building in the Western Atlantic and a deep layered trough will promote light to moderate east- northeast to northeast winds for the next few days. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the local waters, producing locally higher winds and seas. Small craft should exercise caution and stay weather alert.

BEACH FORECAST

No significant swell events is anticipated for the next few days.
However, the moderate risk of rip currents will continue for the beaches in northern Puerto Rico, and possibly for Culebra and the northern USVI by tomorrow into the weekend.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.