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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1019 Am Ast Thu Nov 30 2023
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers.

AMZ700 1019 Am Ast Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A cold front will continue north of the region during the next few days. A broad surface high pressure building behind the front will promote moderate to locally fresh trades across the regional waters through at least Saturday. Wind-driven seas and a northerly swell will promote hazardous seas around 7 feet across portions of the atlantic waters and passages during the weekend.

FXCA62 TJSJ 300913 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 513 AM AST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
A surface high pressure will build across the central Atlantic during the next few days. This will promote moderate to fresh trades through at least Saturday. An increase in moisture and winds, as well as deteriorating marine conditions are expected by Friday and into the weekend. A weak trough should increase shower activity by Monday.



SHORT TERM
Today through Saturday...

Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies skies with only few passing early morning showers noted so far over the coastal waters and along portions of the north and east coastal sections of Puerto Rico. For the rest of the morning, periods of quick passing showers may reach these areas as well as the coastal waters of the U.S.
Virgin Islands. However, no significant rainfall accumulations are forecast. This will be followed by limited locally and diurnally induced afternoon showers in isolated spots around the islands.
Recent model guidance along with satellite imagery and both TJSJ (San Juan)and TNCM (St Maarten)30/00Z upper air sounding suggested precipitable water values of 1.27 and 1.15 inches respectively.
Therefore an overall dry airmass will persist across the region.
Minimum temperatures so far were between the low to mid 70s along the coastal areas, and in the low to mid 60s in the higher elevations and valleys. Overall fair weather skies and breezy conditions along the coastal areas can be expected in most areas today.

For the rest of the period, a mid-to upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the forecast area. The ridge will slightly erode by Friday through Saturday, as an upper level trough will shift eastward just north of the region before settling and become elongated across the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday.
Meanwhile, an associated frontal boundary and moisture field will gradually sink southwards towards the region and bring an increase in moisture while being steered by the moderate to locally strong east to northeast winds. The ridge aloft will aid in maintaining stable and dry conditions aloft thus limiting convective development.

Moisture transport is forecast to increase Friday through Saturday, in response to the tightening of the local pressure gradient as the surface high pressure builds across the west and central Atlantic, resulting in an increase in the trade winds along with the expected surge of moisture from the aforementioned frontal boundary. Some of the shower activity will be enhanced by the elongated upper trough just east of the region especially during the overnight and early morning hours. This additional low level moisture will also support the best chance for isolated to scattered shower activity during late afternoon. The shower activity should be focused mainly over parts of the interior and west to southwest sections of Puerto Rico.
Isolated showers may also affect the U.S. Virgin islands but most of the shower activity if any should be fast moving and of short duration. Ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage can be expected with the periods of moderate to locally heavy rains.
Excessive rainfall risks are however not anticipated with this activity. Local temperatures will be near the seasonal values with mostly clear and cool nights except for the quick passing overnight showers followed by sunny conditions during most of the day.

LONG TERM
Sunday through Thursday...

A TUTT-low is expected to develop over the eastern Caribbean early in the workweek and the local area should remain on the subsidence side of the low during the first part of the week. However, as the upper level trough deepens over and to the east of the area, a jet maxima of around 70 kt rounding the base of the trough will move over the local area on Sunday. In response the 500 mb temperature is expected to drop near minus 7.5 degrees Celsius, providing some instability aloft. In addition, at lower levels, the remnants of the frontal boundary will be pushed over the local area by the broad surface high over the central Atlantic between Sunday and Monday. Global models suggest that a weak surface trough will move over the area during this period. Therefore, shower activity should increase in coverage over the islands, but flooding rains are not expected. Otherwise, fair weather conditions should prevail from Tuesday onwards.



AVIATION
VFR durg the prd. Mstly Isold SHRA ovr regional waters and en route btw local islands with shallow cld lyrs nr FL025...
FL050. Prob30 due to VCSH/ISOLD SHRA mainly ovr eastern PR and coastal waters en route to the USVI til 30/12Z. Wnd calm to lgt/vrb...bcmg fm E-NE 12-18 kts with ocnl hir gusts and sea breeze variations aft 30/14Z.

MARINE
A cold front will continue north of the region during the next few days. A broad surface high pressure building behind the front will promote moderate to locally fresh trades across the regional waters through at least Saturday. Wind-driven seas and a northerly swell will promote hazardous seas around 7 feet across portions of the Atlantic waters and passages during the weekend.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern coastline of Puerto Rico, from Aguadilla to Fajardo, and Culebra, as well as for eastern St. Croix. Elsewhere, there is a low risk today.



SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.

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Playa Cortada
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Thu -- 12:39 AM AST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:41 AM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:28 PM AST     0.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:48 PM AST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:49 PM AST     Moonrise
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Playa Cortada, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Playa de Ponce
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Thu -- 01:03 AM AST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:41 AM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:11 PM AST     0.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 PM AST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:50 PM AST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Playa de Ponce, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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