Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Negro, PR

.Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 152 PM AST Mon Jun 8 2026

Traces of the Saharan Air Layer led to hazy skies, with a warmer- than-normal morning, with minimum temperatures in the upper 70s or even the low 80s at lower elevations in PR and the USVI. A patch of moisture then brought showers across the USVI surrounding waters and the eastern third of PR, with minimal rainfall; with most of the activity dissipated by late morning into the afternoon. Winds were mainly from the east-southeast at 10 to 20 mph, with higher gusts and sea-breeze variations.

Heat indices are still dangerous for the most vulnerable communities throughout the rest of this afternoon; thus, a Heat Advisory will remain in effect for coastal and urban areas in PR and the USVI. However, excessive heating, along with sea breeze variations and local effects, will promote the formation of showers the rest of this afternoon, without ruling out one thunderstorm (although the dry air and warmer-than-normal temperatures aloft will limit the potential) over the interior or northwest PR. Later this evening, expect quiet weather with warmer-than-normal overnight hours, with a few showers arriving across the USVI and PR windward locations.

A similar weather pattern is possible tomorrow, featuring warmer- than-normal temperatures, dangerous heat indices, a few quick- moving showers across windward areas, and limited afternoon convection across western PR.

Satellite data shows a polar trough over the Western Atlantic.
Model guidance suggests this trough amplifying across the western Atlantic, reaching the northeast Caribbean around Wednesday, promoting better mid- and upper-level dynamics for the region.
This instability could enhance the afternoon convection that may form on Wednesday. Therefore, we encourage our residents and visitors to monitor weather conditions, as we will update them as conditions require.

.Long Term(Thursday through next Sunday)...
Issued at 148 AM AST Mon Jun 8 2026

The long term period will start relatively wet with the arrival of an upper level trough from the northwest and a tropical wave approaching the Caribbean from the east. Precipitable water (PWAT)
values can reach up to 1.9 inches (high-end normal values for this time of the year) according to latest model guidance. These systems will result in instability as 500mb temperatures cool to -7 to -9 C.
This can aid in shower and t-storm formation. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to move over windward sections of the islands throughout the day, while afternoon convection (including t-storms)
should concentrate over interior and W-NW Puerto Rico. Lines of showers can also develop from El Yunque and the local islands. This activity can result in ponding of water over roadways and poorly drained areas, along with urban and small stream flooding, gusty winds and lightning. Generally drier air is forecast to filter over the islands on Friday and Saturday, with occasional patches of higher moisture also filtering in. However, limited flooding risk is forecast at least on Friday. In general PWAT values should remain below normal as available moisture is also limited to the lower levels with drier mid-levels. Troughiness however will also persist in the upper levels as troughs continue to linger north of the islands, however by the weekend subsidence will dominate. In general passing shower activity will continue to reach windward sectors at times with diurnal heating and local effects aiding in afternoon convection. This activity will be steered by up to breezy east to east-southeast steering flow, as another surface high builds over the Atlantic and tightens the local pressure gradient. More humid patches of moisture are then forecast to reach the area by Sunday and Monday, with PWAT values possibly reaching above normal values and ultimately enhancing in the above mentioned diurnal pattern.
Saharan Dust will continue to filter over the local islands during the long term period, current model guidance suggests moderate concentrations continuing to reach the region on Thursday, persisting, albeit gradually decreasing in concentrations, throughout the end of the period. Current model guidance also suggests higher concentrations approaching the islands and eventually reaching beyond the long term period, stay tuned for more updates. 925 mb temperatures will continue at or above normal, prompting a possible limited to elevated heat risk each late morning to afternoon. Heat indices can reach and exceed 100 degrees F towards Heat Advisory Criteria at urban and lower elevations areas of the islands, particularly to start the long term period.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 PM AST Mon Jun 8 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are present across all TAF sites. VCSH and SHRA possible across TJBQ around from 08/19Z-21Z. HZ have been decreasing, but low to moderate concetrations will remain present over the forecast period and could result in VIS reductions. ESE winds around 12-18 kts with higher gusts and sea breeze variations thru 08/22-23Z, becoming 10 kts or less overnight. Winds increasing around 14 to 16 kts aft 09/14Z.

MARINE
Issued at 152 PM AST Mon Jun 8 2026

The Azores high-pressure and a developing surface pressure in the western Atlantic will produce moderate east to east-southeast winds across regional waters, with occasional fresh winds causing choppy conditions, especially offshore. A tropical wave is expected to move through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, reaching Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands by Thursday. This wave is likely to increase shower and thunderstorm activity, with the greatest potential from Thursday afternoon to evening.
Mariners should prepare for stronger winds and higher seas near thunderstorms.

BEACH FORECAST
Issued at 152 PM AST Mon Jun 8 2026

There's still potential for life-threatening rip currents along the exposed beaches, mainly due to breezy east-southeast winds through today. Therefore, beachgoers are urged to exercise caution, remain aware of surf conditions, and avoid venturing too far from shore, as life-threatening rip currents are possible across most of the region.

From Tuesday to Wednesday, the weakening winds will lessen the risk of rip currents; however, please exercise caution on our local beaches, as rip currents may still occur.

Life-threatening rip currents will possibly return from Thursday onward, especially along the east and north-facing beaches in PR and the USVI.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 152 PM AST Mon Jun 8 2026

Drier-than-normal conditions will enhance the availability of burning fuels along the southern plains of PR and the USVI.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>003-005- 007-008-010>013.

VI...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...None.