Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Combate, PR

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Wednesday...

This morning, radar and satellite imagery showed mainly fair weather conditions, with little to no precipitation aside from a few spotty light showers. Winds were predominantly from the north at around 10 to 20 mph, with higher gusts driven by a departing trough to our northeast and a surface high-pressure system over the western Atlantic. Daytime temperatures reached the lower to mid-80s in southern coastal areas and the 70s in the mountains. Tonight and during the overnight period, some showers embedded in the northerly winds are expected to reach the northern and northeastern sectors of Puerto Rico. With this winds flow and drier airmass over our region, cooler temperatures are anticipated for tonight and early Tuesday morning.

The short-term forecast remains mainly on track. For the remainder of the forecast period, models continue to show below-average levels of precipitable water. A slight increase to around 1.1 to 1.2 inches is expected by tomorrow. Combined with local effects, this may result in isolated afternoon showers, but the atmosphere will remain generally unfavorable for deep convection. As a result, flooding concerns remain minimal. Winds will stay breezy tonight, then ease slightly and shift more northeasterly by tomorrow. Weather conditions should remain similar by mid-week.

In summary, expect isolated showers across northern and eastern Puerto Rico and adjacent Atlantic waters, with a chance for limited afternoon convection. Chances of precipitation ranging between 30 to 50 % during the afternoons. However, conditions will not support widespread rain development.

LONG TERM
Thursday through Monday
from previous discussion

Current model guidance has a pocket of dry air early Thursday, with precipitable water (PWAT) values ranging at 0.80 to an inch over the islands, below normal values for this time of the year. A surface trough should start to cross the islands by this time, ultimately resulting in east-southeasterly steering flow through most of the period. Behind this feature is abundant moisture, weather conditions are forecast to become increasingly more humid as the workweek progresses. A notable increase in PWAT values is forecast by early Friday as the aforementioned abundant moisture from the east starts to enter the region. By Friday morning, eastern PR is forecast to have more than 1.5 inches of PWAT, with values gradually increasing eastward and St. Croix having around 1.9 inches. This moisture surge will continue into the weekend with PWAT values ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 inches by Sunday and Monday, well above normal values for this time of the year. Most available moisture will be confined to below 800 mb on Thursday and early Friday, deepening afterwards. Showers and possible t-storms are forecast over windward areas while afternoon convection affects sectors of W-NW PR. Although this activity is forecast to be shallow on Thursday, the increase in moisture and more favorable conditions to end the workweek into early next week can increase the coverage and intensity of this activity and promote a limited to elevated flooding risk over the islands. 925 mb temperatures are forecast to gradually climb to normal and above normal values due to the east-southeast flow.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)

VFR conds will prevail across all TAF sites. Winds will remain from the N at 10-15 knots with higher gusts through 21/23Z. Winds will gradually decrease overnight to 5–10 knots by 22/00Z, increasing again aft 22/14z.

MARINE
The combination of a broad surface high pressure over the western Atlantic and an induce surface trough just northeast of the region will continue to generate a moderate to locally fresh north- northeasterly winds across the region. Therefore, wind-driven seas and pulses of a northerly swell will maintain seas up to 7 feet across the Atlantic waters and the Mona Passage at least until tomorrow prevailing choppy seas across the offshore waters at least until Wednesday. Improving conditions are forecast from Wednesday onwards.

BEACH FORECAST

Hazardous marine conditions with a high risk of rip current across the northern coastal sides of Puerto Rico, Culebra and St. Thomas.
The risk of rip current will persist for the upcoming days, improving by Wednesday. A moderate risk of rip currents means that life- threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone.
Life- threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Tuesday night for AMZ711.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ712-716- 742.

Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Tuesday for AMZ741.