Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Esperanza, PR

SHORT TERM
Today through Tuesday...

Mid-to upper-level cloudiness persisted once again over the region under the influence of a developing upper-level low to our north and a broad upper-level ridge over the southeastern Caribbean Sea.
Shower and thunderstorm activity persisted mainly across the offshore Caribbean waters and the Mona Passage. Although it was mostly cloudy over land areas, little to no rainfall activity was detected during the morning and early afternoon hours. However, the onset of afternoon convection is delayed due to the cloudiness, and showers are still expected to develop late this afternoon over portions of western PR. Maximum temperatures were from the mid- to upper-80s in general across the lower elevations to the low 90s across the southern coast of Puerto Rico. The wind was from the east to southeast at 14 to 18 mph with sea breeze variations and higher gusts.

Latest global model guidance suggest a faster solution regarding the position of the upper-level low, with the low now shifting further westward by Tuesday, and drier air moving earlier than expected across the eastern Caribbean. This pattern suggest that the best window for shower and thunderstorm development is from tonight through Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, the broad surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh trades through the short-term period.
Hazy skies will prevail across the islands through most of the workweek, due to a weak Saharan Air Layer bringing minor to moderate concentrations of suspended Saharan dust.

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...

/From Prev Discussion issued at 507 AM AST Sun Jun 15 2025/

Model guidance indicates changes in the forecast, as the TUTT low is now expected to move away from the region much faster than suggested in previous model cycles. By Wednesday, the TUTT low is forecast to be positioned northwest of Puerto Rico, with upper-level dynamics showing reduced favorability for deep convective activity compared to earlier runs. 500 mb temperatures are now projected to range between -5 and -6 Celsius, which is slightly warmer than the climatological normal. This will result in marginal instability, which is expected to persist through the remainder of the long- term forecast period. As a result, POPs have been slightly reduced to reflect the expected decrease in convective potential.
However, further adjustments may be necessary as models come into better agreement.

The determining factor for shower activity will be moisture availability, with significant fluctuations in precipitable water values. These values are expected to range from as low as 1.45 inches on Wednesday to nearly 2.0 inches by Thursday, with a similar pattern expected to repeat from Friday through Sunday. Moisture will remain mostly concentrated south of the local islands, with intermittent patches of drier and more humid air streaming across the region.

Surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain an east-southeast wind flow across the northeastern Caribbean. The local pressure gradient is also expected to tighten, resulting in the return of breezy to locally windy conditions across coastal areas through the long-term forecast period. As a result, the weather pattern will favor shower and thunderstorm activity that follows a typical diurnal cycle, with overnight and morning showers over windward coastal areas, followed by afternoon convection developing over interior and western Puerto Rico. The areal coverage of this activity will largely depend on available moisture.

The prevailing east-southeast wind flow will also contribute to warmer temperatures across the local islands. The heat threat will largely depend on moisture content, with the greatest risk occurring on days with high humidity, as this will significantly increase heat index values and the potential for heat-related impacts. Residents and visitors are advised to take precautionary measures during peak heating hours, including staying well-hydrated, wearing light and breathable clothing, limiting direct sun exposure, and taking regular breaks when engaging in outdoor activities.



AVIATION

(18Z TAFS)

Mainly VFR conditions expected across most terminals. However, SHRA/TSRA expected near TJBQ thru 15/23z which may cause brief MVFR conds. Additional SHRA/TSRA expected to develop overnight into early Monday morning across portions of the local waters, which could cause tempo MVFR conds at TIST/TISX/TJSJ. ESE winds up to 21 kt blo FL050 with higher gusts and sea breeze variations thru 15/21z, bcmg light and variable overnight.



MARINE

The surface high pressure north of the region will continue to gradually shift east over the coming days. While some fluctuations in the wind pattern are expected, winds will generally remain from the east to east-southeast through the period, gentle to moderate through Tuesday, then increasing to moderate to locally fresh by Tuesday night across the regional waters. As winds increase, seas will become choppy, especially in exposed areas. A plume of suspended Saharan dust is expected to linger through midweek, potentially causing a slight reduction in visibility. Meanwhile, increasing moisture and instability associated with an upper-level trough will likely lead to a rise in thunderstorm activity from tonight through Monday.



BEACH FORECAST

There is a moderate risk of rip currents across most beaches exposed to the prevailing winds. While some western beaches tend to be more sheltered, caution is still advised near jetties, piers, and channels where stronger currents may still develop.



SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.