Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Esperanza, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 6:44PM Saturday August 24, 2019 12:15 AM AST (04:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:13AMMoonset 1:32PM Illumination 39% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 949 Pm Ast Fri Aug 23 2019
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 949 Pm Ast Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A surface high pressure over the north central atlantic will continue to promote a moderate east to southeast wind flow through Monday. Moisture behind a weak tropical wave will aid in developing passing showers and isolated Thunderstorms over the local waters late tonight and Saturday. Drier dusty air will arrive early next week associated with somewhat stronger winds.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Esperanza, PR
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location: 18.12, -65.46     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 240054
afdsju
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
854 pm ast Fri aug 23 2019

Update Forecast remains on track. A surge in low-level moisture
associated with a weak tropical wave will be moving over the area
tonight and persist through Saturday. This will produce isolated
to scattered shower activity across the regional waters and
possibly affect portions of the usvi and eastern puerto rico
through tonight and during the morning hours of Saturday. Most of
these showers, however, should be brief and only lead to minor
rainfall accumulations. Then, during the afternoon hours,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across
portions of northwest puerto rico with additional activity
possible across the san juan metro area, portions of eastern
puerto rico, and downwind of the usvi. Given that there is a mid
to upper-level ridge overhead, the mid to upper-level dynamics
will continue to remain very weak. Therefore, not expecting any
significant rainfall activity with the showers that develop during
the afternoon hours. Drier weather conditions along with hazy
skies due to a saharan air layer moving across are expected for
Sunday.

Aviation MainlyVFR conditions expected. Vcsh expected across
the eastern pr, usvi, and leeward island terminals through most of
the period. Shra tsra across northwest pr between 24 16z and
24 22z could be near the vicinity of tjmz and tjbq terminals.

Brief MVFR conditions are possible. Ese winds less than 10 kts
overnight, increasing to 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts and sea
breeze variations developing after 24 13z.

Marine Mostly tranquil seas between 2 and 5 feet with winds
between 10 and 20 knots are expected throughout the weekend.

A moderate risk of rip currents expected for most of the northern
beaches of puerto rico as well as some of the southern beaches of
puerto rico, culebra, vieques, and saint croix through Saturday.

Prev discussion issued 154 pm ast Fri aug 23 2019
synopsis... Lingering moisture trailing the departed tropical
wave will continue to aid in the development of showers and
possibly isolated thunderstorms mainly across the northwest
quadrant of puerto rico and downwind from the u.S. Virgin islands
and EL yunque during the rest of the afternoon. Mid to upper level
ridge pattern will build and hold across the region through most
of the weekend. A drier and more stable air will filter in across
the region in association with an extensive saharan air layer over
the weekend. The highest concentration of the suspended saharan
dust particulates is forecast Sunday through Monday of next week.

Short term... Rest of today through Sunday...

overall drier airmass is expected beginning tonight with skies
becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy and limited shower activity.

However, the prevailing east to southeast trades will transport
occasional patches of moisture across the region from time to
time. This will result in periods of passing showers over portions
of the u.S. Virgin islands and mainly the north and east sections
of puerto rico during the overnight and early morning hours. Recent
satellite imagery satellite imagery as well as model guidance both
suggest a slot of drier air is to move westward and spread across
the region accompanying the aforementioned saharan air layer.

Another weak easterly wave and moisture surge will bring a swath
of additional moisture brief gusty winds across the region late
Saturday through early Sunday in advance of the saharan air layer.

Therefore this added moisture will promote locally induced showers
and thunderstorms particularly during the afternoon hours and over
parts of the central interior and west to north west sections of
puerto rico and downwind of the u.S.Virgin islands. Thereafter,
and the rest of Sunday through Monday,a rapid drying trend is
forecast as a dense saharan air mass is forecast to arrive and
persist through the early part of the upcoming work week.

Long term... Monday through Friday...

on Monday, the very dry and extensive saharan air mass will hold
across the region resulting in hazy skies and limited daytime
convection through at least Tuesday. This stable air mass along
with overall subsidence aloft will inhibit significant convective
development during the afternoons through the early part of the
period. However, isolated to scattered afternoon showers are
possible each day as a result of diurnal and local effects. The
strongest shower activity and heaviest rainfall are forecast to
develop over the interior and western areas of puerto rico with
only isolated showers in and around the u.S. Virgin islands.

Additionally, isolated afternoon thunderstorms can not be ruled
out across parts of the west interior sections of areas of puerto
rico.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, model guidance continues to suggest the
low level high pressure ridge is to sink southwards across the
region and induce a fairly tight pressure gradient and better
moisture convergence. This will allow better pooling of tropical
moisture and result in a return of the deep tropical moisture and
diminishing a saharan air layer over the region. The additional
tropical moisture will favor better chance for the development of
showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoons mid week
especially over the central interior and south of the cordillera
central.

By Thursday and Friday, an active tropical wave is expected enter
and move across the eastern caribbean. Based on the latest model
guidance, this feature along with better upper level support will
may support a better chance for numerous to widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms. However because of the inconsistencies in
the models as to exactly where this feature may pass confidence
in the amount of rainfall across the region is still low at least
for the next few days. We will however continue to monitor this
feature and see how it unfolds over the next few days. Regardless
, there is better potential for a wetter pattern during the latter
part of the period.

Aviation... MainlyVFR conditions are expected to persist through
the forecast period. Vcts are expected for tjmz tjbq and vcsh are
expected for tjsj tist tkpk. The latest GFS forecast shows winds at
fl050 coming out of the east southeast at 10 to 20 knots.

Marine... Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected
across the local waters during the period. Therefore, small craft
operators are urged to exercise caution especially over the
offshore waters and local passages.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for some of the north,
east and and southern beaches during the period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 78 90 79 90 50 50 50 20
stt 80 88 80 89 50 40 40 20

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... None.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Gl
long term... .Ws


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 2 mi45 min SE 8.9 G 22 82°F 85°F1017.6 hPa
41056 10 mi75 min E 14 G 18 84°F 85°F3 ft1017.4 hPa (+1.0)
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 15 mi45 min 84°F 86°F1017.6 hPa
YABP4 - 9754228 - Yabucoa Harbor, PR 20 mi45 min 79°F 75°F
CHAV3 - 9751639 - Charlotte Amalie, VI 32 mi45 min 83°F 1017.4 hPa
41052 - South of St. John, Virgin Islands 38 mi45 min E 14 G 18 85°F 1016 hPa
LAMV3 41 mi45 min 83°F 86°F
41053 - San Juan, PR 42 mi75 min E 12 G 14 84°F 84°F4 ft1016.6 hPa (+1.1)
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 42 mi90 min NE 2.9 81°F 1019 hPa76°F
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 42 mi45 min ESE 8 G 12 84°F 85°F1017.6 hPa
CHSV3 - 9751364 - Christiansted Harbor, Virgin Islands 48 mi45 min E 1.9 G 2.9 79°F 86°F1016.9 hPa
LTBV3 - 9751401 - Lime Tree Bay, VI 48 mi45 min ENE 4.1 G 8 81°F 86°F1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Esperanza, Vieques Island, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR36 mi2.3 hrsESE 710.00 miA Few Clouds84°F75°F74%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for TJSJ

Wind History from JSJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4----E5SE4E6E3SE4SE4E8E12E15E15E17E16
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1 day ago--------S3CalmCalm--S3--SE6E6E5CalmE6SE9SE9
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2 days ago--------Calm--SW3CalmCalm--E12E10NE15E15E18E17
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Tide / Current Tables for Puerto Ferro, Isla de Vieques, Puerto Rico
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Puerto Ferro
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Sat -- 12:13 AM AST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:05 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:09 AM AST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:31 PM AST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:11 PM AST     0.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.10.20.30.50.60.80.80.90.90.90.80.80.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current (2)
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Vieques Passage
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:13 AM AST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:12 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:29 AM AST     0.28 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:06 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:55 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:58 AM AST     -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:32 PM AST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:41 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:22 PM AST     0.70 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:43 PM AST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:46 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.5-0.3-00.20.30.30.2-0-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.20.10.40.60.70.70.50.2-0.1-0.4-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.