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AMZ726 Coastal Waters East Of Puerto Rico, Around Vieques, And Around And Just North Of Culebra And Saint John- 400 Pm Ast Mon Dec 4 2023
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to northeast 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds, increasing to 11 seconds. Scattered showers.
Saturday..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.

AMZ700 400 Pm Ast Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A broad surface high pressure building over the western atlantic will promote moderate to fresh trade winds across the regional waters. A low pressure and its associated frontal boundary will move northeastward across the western atlantic. A northeasterly swell generated by surface pressure systems across the central atlantic will arrive from mid-week onward.

FXCA62 TJSJ 042040 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 440 PM AST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS

Surface high pressure across the Central Atlantic will continue to cause breezy conditions. Expect periods of sunshine/clear skies with some isolated to scattered passing showers under a stable weather pattern throughout the workweek. More rainfall is possible over the weekend. Life- threatening rip currents are possible, especially along the north and east- facing beaches in Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the week.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Wednesday...

Fair weather conditions prevailed throughout the day with a few passing showers noted across eastern Puerto Rico early in the morning. The daytime temperatures once again reached the upper 80s across coastal areas, with heat indices around 100 degrees.

The short term forecast is still on track. A mid to upper level ridge will hold across the local islands through the forecast cycle.
At lower levels, a surface high pressure across the Central Atlantic will continue to yield a moderate to fresh easterly wind flow through Tuesday, becoming gentle to moderate on Wednesday. Based on the latest guidance, precipitable water (PW) values should remain between 1.4 and 1.8 inches with a sharp drop to 1.0 inch on Wednesday. Overall, available moisture will continue to trapped below 850mb.

As a result, under ridge aloft and PW values near or slightly above normal values, continue to expect passing showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the outlying islands, particularly tonight and Tuesday Morning, with locally induced afternoon showers across northwest Puerto Rico Tuesday afternoon. On Wednesday, with PW values dropping to 1.0 inch, rainfall activity is expected to remain limited, if any.

LONG TERM
Thursday through Monday...

A short wave trough moving to the north across the Atlantic Ocean will weaken somewhat the mid-level ridge over the Northeast Caribbean Thursday through Friday. While at the surface, a cold front could approach from the northwest, pooling moisture over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands late Thursday night into Friday. The Total Precipitable Water (TPW) may increase by 1.5 inches or more during the second part of the workweek. Under this weather pattern, the frequency of passing showers with periods of moderate to locally heavy rain could be possible, especially across the windward sections in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The surface winds will prevail mainly from the east- northeast to northeast through at least Saturday.

Model guidance suggests the mid-level ridge building, once again during the weekend into next week. However, the moisture associated with the frontal boundary, lingering north of the islands, may result in showery weather, especially along the windward sections and surrounding waters on Saturday. Moisture content may erode by Sunday without ruling out the arrival of some occasional quick passing showers.

Another cold front could be exiting the Eastern Seaboard around Sunday, moving eastward and approaching the region by late Monday night or Tuesday, which may increase rain activity early next week. However, high uncertainty is associated with this forecast, as this solution may change as we approach next week.

AVIATION
VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all TAF sites with VCSH possible at USVI terminals and JSJ. ESE winds 10 to 15 knots with sea breeze variations and higher gusts, becoming at 10 knots or less after 4/22z.

MARINE
A broad surface high pressure building over the western Atlantic will promote moderate to fresh trade winds across the regional waters. A low pressure and its associated frontal boundary will move northeastward across the Western Atlantic. A northeasterly swell generated by surface pressure systems across the Central Atlantic will arrive from mid-week onward.

There is a Small Craft Advisory for the offshore Atlantic waters and the Anegada Passage through tomorrow. For beachgoers, there is a moderate risk of rip currents for northern and eastern facing beaches and a low risk for southern Puerto Rico. However, St. Croix has a high risk through tomorrow.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ002.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST Tuesday for AMZ711-723.

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Roosevelt Roads
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Mon -- 01:29 AM AST     0.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:39 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:36 AM AST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:23 PM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:27 PM AST     0.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:45 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:31 PM AST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Roosevelt Roads, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Vieques Passage
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Mon -- 01:19 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:22 AM AST     0.55 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:39 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:45 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:22 AM AST     -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:23 PM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:07 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:01 PM AST     0.38 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:45 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:40 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:23 PM AST     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current, knots

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