Tuesday, May26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mayag�ez, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 7:00PM Tuesday May 26, 2020 3:46 PM AST (19:46 UTC) Moonrise 9:07AMMoonset 10:42PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ742 Coastal Waters Of Northwestern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1013 Am Ast Tue May 26 2020
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Numerous showers through the day. Isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots backing northeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Numerous showers through the day. Scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms, then isolated showers.
AMZ700 1013 Am Ast Tue May 26 2020
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Surface high pressure across the north central atlantic and a weak surface trough extending across the region from the eastern caribbean, will maintain a gentle to moderate east southeast wind flow across the local waters through Wednesday. A tropical wave is forecast to move across the regional waters late Wednesday through Thursday. This in combination with an upper level trough will increase the potential for shower and Thunderstorm development across the regional waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayag�ez, PR
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location: 18.22, -67.15     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 261440 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 1040 AM AST Tue May 26 2020

UPDATE. A generally light to moderate east to southeast wind flow have affected the area and will hold today. Under this flow, low-level moisture will continue to move in, maintaining high precipitable water values ranging near or above 2.0 inches. In fact,the 26/12Z sounding reported a precipitable water vapor value of 1.98 inches with low-level winds peaking around 10-15 knots. Increased cloud cover and scattered showers activity have been observed from the waters into portions of southern and eastern Puerto Rico. This activity is expected to continue during the next few hours, but as the day progresses, the bulk of the activity is expected to favor portions of the interior and northwestern Puerto Rico. Streamer-like showers are also expected to develop downwind from El Yunque and the local islands into the San Juan metropolitan area and eastern Puerto Rico. Favorable conditions may result in isolated thunderstorm development with the afternoon convection. Given the weak steering flow, slow- moving showers and thunderstorms may generate enough rains to result in localized urban and small stream flooding this afternoon. This activity is expected to dissipate by sunset. Daytime high temperatures are expected to peak into the upper 80s to low 90s across coastal areas, while lower temperatures are expected across higher elevations. Southeasterly winds and high moisture content may result in heat indices peaking between 102-107 degrees F.


AVIATION. Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals until 26/16Z. Then TSRA/SHRA across terminals will increase at TJSJ, TJMZ, TJBQ, and over central/western PR. TSRA/SHRA may cause tempo MVFR conds at TJBQ/TJMZ. Sfc winds from the east to southeast at 10-15 kt with sea breeze variations after 26/15z. Max winds NW 30-40 kt btwn FL470-525.

MARINE. Relatively tranquil marine conditions with seas up to 6 feet and east to southeast winds up to 15 knots are expected across the local waters. However, higher winds up to 20 knots due to local effects will result in choppy marine conditions across portions of the coastal waters of northern Puerto Rico. As a result, small craft operators are urged to exercise caution across these waters. A moderate risk of rip currents continues for beaches along the north and southeast coast of Puerto Rico and Culebra, as well as beaches along the north and extreme east of Saint Croix.


PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 722 AM AST Tue May 26 2020/

SYNOPSIS . Diurnally induced afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly over central and western Puerto Rico. An upper level low will gradually build by midweek just to the north-northeast of the region. At lower levels, a tropical wave is forecast to move across the region and increase low-level moisture between Wednesday and Thursday. A Saharan Air Layer is expected to move over our area during the weekend. East to southeast winds will prevail through the long term period.

SHORT TERM . Today through Thursday .

A wet and unsettled pattern will persist through the short-term period. A trough will continue to deepen across the central Atlantic, as a TUTT low develops later this evening across the western Atlantic, followed by a closed low just north of Puerto Rico. The TUTT is forecast to drift south through Thursday. The mid-level ridge that has provided relatively stable weather will shift to the west to southwest of Puerto Rico now through Thursday. As the mid-level ridge moves away, it will erode the trade wind cap and slowly moisten the mid-levels of the atmosphere. At the surface, east to southeast winds will usher in an influx of low-level moisture over the next several days across Puerto Rico and adjacent islands. The low-level moisture will keep precipitable water values near 1.9 to 2.1 inches for the next several days. The GFS and EURO show modest divergence aloft, however, low-level convergence and upper-level instability should be enough to produce isolated thunderstorms today and early Wednesday. Thursday scattered thunderstorms are forecast for most of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands as a result of increased instability provided by a tropical wave that will move into the Caribbean waters.

Analysis of the skew-T for the short-term period shows the 700 to 500 mb lapse rates being conditionally unstable, and CAPE ranging from 1400 to 2000 J/kg, with the higher values on Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday, the concern is for the possibility of flooding occurring across Puerto Rico and the adjacent islands. At this time, conditions are favorable as a result of light low, mid and upper- level winds, as well as precipitable water values close to 2 standard deviations above normal due to the tropical wave, not to mention strong low-level forcing, and relatively weak upper-level winds. The 72 hour precipitation total forecast shows the highest rainfall totals over northwestern Puerto Rico with rainfall amounts ranging from 2.00 to 3.00 inches, the interior 1.5 to 2.0 inches, and the San Juan metro area 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rain. However, the skew-T profile shows a saturated atmosphere from the mid to upper levels. The relatively saturated levels could delay the initiation of convection during the afternoon and produce light rainfall amounts across the area.

A positive outcome is for light to moderate rainfall accumulations for portions of northeastern, central, and southern Puerto Rico, which are experiencing abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

LONG TERM . Friday through Tuesday .

A TUTT induced surface low is forecast to develop on Friday about 800 miles to our northeast and slowly pull further north over the central Atlantic through early Monday. Meanwhile a broad surface high pressure will build across the central Atlantic. This will continue to promote an east to southeasterly wind flow through the long term period. As the low pulls away, lingering moisture will remain across the region on Friday. 500 mb temperatures are forecast to drop through the weekend and into early next week, as the TUTT lingers to our north and as a polar trough amplifies over the western Atlantic by Monday. This will continue to provide some instability aloft for thunderstorm development in diurnal activity each afternoon over western PR.

Having said that, a building low to mid level ridge across the tropical Atlantic will bring a Saharan Air Layer(SAL) across the islands during the weekend. Therefore, hazy skies are expected during this period. Drier air filtering in with the SAL will limit rainfall activity across the USVI and the eastern sections of PR, however, patches of moisture embedded in the trade winds will bring the occasional passing showers across these areas through early next week.

AVIATION . Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals until 26/16Z. Then TSRA/SHRA across terminals TJSJ,TJMZ, TJBQ, and over central/western PR. TSRA/SHRA may cause tempo MVFR conds at the above terminal sites. Sfc winds from the east to southeast at 10-15 kt with sea breeze variations after 26/14z.

MARINE . Seas will continue at less than 5 feet for the next several days. Moderate southeasterly winds will prevail through the end of the work week. A tropical wave will increase shower and thunderstorm activity between late Wednesday night and through Thursday across the regional waters. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the eastern and northern beaches of the islands.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 92 78 90 77 / 40 60 60 60 STT 88 78 88 76 / 50 60 60 60

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . None. VI . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM . WS LONG TERM . ICP PUBLIC DESK . ICP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGZP4 - 9759394 - Mayaguez, PR 0 mi53 min 86°F 85°F1014.5 hPa
PTRP4 11 mi32 min NNW 4.1 G 7 86°F
41115 - Rincon, Puerto Rico (181) 13 mi47 min 83°F2 ft
MGIP4 - 9759110 - Magueyes Islands, PR 18 mi53 min SSE 9.9 G 12 86°F 85°F1014.1 hPa
AROP4 - 9757809 - Arecibo, PR 30 mi53 min NNE 8.9 G 17
42085 - Southeast of Ponce, PR 41 mi47 min E 12 G 14 84°F 84°F3 ft1013.3 hPa (-1.0)
MISP4 - 9759938 - Mona Island, PR 43 mi53 min 86°F 85°F1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Mayaguez, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Aquadilla, Rafael Hernandez Airport, PR19 mi57 minENE 610.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for TJMZ

Wind History from JMZ (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Mayaguez, Puerto Rico
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Mayaguez
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Tue -- 05:52 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:18 AM AST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:07 AM AST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:20 AM AST     0.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:31 PM AST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:58 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:41 PM AST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:56 PM AST     1.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.41.20.90.60.40.40.40.50.60.60.60.50.40.2-0-0.1-0.100.30.611.41.6

Tide / Current Tables for Puerto Real, Puerto Rico
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Puerto Real
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:52 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:13 AM AST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:07 AM AST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:17 AM AST     0.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:26 PM AST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:58 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:41 PM AST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:53 PM AST     1.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.210.80.60.40.30.30.30.40.40.50.50.40.30.1-0-0.1-0.100.20.50.811.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.