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AMZ726 Coastal Waters East Of Puerto Rico, Around Vieques, And Around And Just North Of Culebra And Saint John- 849 Pm Ast Tue Dec 5 2023
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds, increasing to 11 seconds. Scattered showers.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds, increasing to 10 seconds. Scattered showers.

AMZ700 849 Pm Ast Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A weak surface high pressure over the central atlantic will promote light to moderate trades during the next few days across the atlantic waters. Meanwhile, locally higher winds are expected tonight into Wednesday across the caribbean waters and passages due to an old frontal boundary. A cold front will move eastward across the western atlantic, approaching the northeastern caribbean by Friday, while a strong surface high pressure builds behind it. A lingering northeasterly swell will continue through at least Thursday, while a larger, northwesterly swell is expected to move across the local waters from Friday onwards. Hazardous seas due to increasing winds and swells are expected during the weekend into early next week.

FXCA62 TJSJ 060114 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 914 PM AST Tue Dec 5 2023

UPDATE
The short term forecast was updated as an old frontal boundary is moving across the Caribbean waters, and an increase in scattered shower activity is being observed...mainly across the offshore Caribbean waters. Isolated thunderstorms were noted just south of marine zone AMZ733(Caribbean waters of Puerto Rico from 10 NM to 17N, including the coastal waters of Saint Croix). However, shower activity over land areas, if any, should leave minor rainfall accumulations during the overnight hours. Otherwise, the High Rip Current Risk for St. Croix was let to expire at 6 PM. However, a lingering northeasterly swell around 10-11 seconds will keep an elevated threat for rip currents across most east and north-facing beaches of the islands on Wednesday.



AVIATION
Mainly VFR conditions expected across all terminals. However, brief -SHRA or SCT/BKN cigs btw FL030-FL060 are possible overnight at TJPS/TISX due to an old frontal boundary moving across the Caribbean waters. The latest 06/00z TJSJ sounding indicated ESE winds up to 18 kt blo Fl050.



MARINE
(From the latest Coastal Waters Forecast Synopsis)...A weak surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will promote light to moderate trades during the next few days across the Atlantic waters. Meanwhile, locally higher winds are expected tonight into Wednesday across the Caribbean waters and passages due to an old frontal boundary. A cold front will move eastward across the Western Atlantic, approaching the Northeastern Caribbean by Friday, while a strong surface high pressure builds behind it. A lingering northeasterly swell will continue through at least Thursday, while a larger, northwesterly swell is expected to move across the local waters from Friday onwards. Hazardous seas due to increasing winds and swells are expected during the weekend into early next week.



PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 447 PM AST Tue Dec 5 2023/

SYNOPSIS...
Overall fair weather conditions will continue through the week with a possible increase of showers by Friday as a frontal boundary approaches the region. Breezy conditions will continue each afternoon and a stronger northerly swell is forecast to arrive over the weekend. The risk of rip currents will be moderate over the next few days.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Thursday

Fair and pleasant weather conditions prevailed today with so far only a few passing light showers noted across eastern and west interior sections of Puerto Rico. The daytime temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s across coastal areas, and upper 70s to low 80s in higher elevations and valleys. Maximum heat indices we in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees mainly along coastal and urban areas.

An overall dry and stable weather pattern will persist with the driest day still looks like Wednesday when model guidance and recent satellite derived imagery, both suggest precipitable water values to drop to one inch or less. Only a few typical passing early morning showers will be possible followed by dry and mostly fair weather skies during the day. A mid-upper level ridge over the western Atlantic will remain in place and thus maintain dry and stable conditions aloft to maintain pleasant weather conditions and limiting vertical development of any shower activity. Model guidance continued to suggest high pressure ridging at all levels with stable weather conditions to persist for most of the period. However by Thursday afternoon onwards the upper ridge is to erode, while a east- southeastern low level wind flow is anticipated as the surface high pressure shift eastwards across the Atlantic and a frontal boundary moves over the western and central Atlantic. This expected wind flow and increased advective pattern will bring shallow patches of moisture across the region, increasing the chances for overnight and early morning passing showers. Consequently, shallow low level moisture, will cross the region from time o time steered by the prevailing easterly winds.

Overall precipitable water values are forecast to remain at or just below the climatological normal for this time of the year, therefore the forecast calls for fair weather and stable conditions with limited rainfall activity, except for the early morning passing showers followed by localized isolated to scattered afternoon shower activity of short duration mainly across the interior and west sections of Puerto Rico.

LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday

A mid-level high pressure will slowly build across the region Friday into the weekend, lingering aloft through at least Tuesday of next week. Meanwhile, at the surface, a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest will induce pre-frontal troughs across the Northeast Caribbean, pooling near to above-normal precipitable water over Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and surrounding waters on Friday. Model guidance put the remnants of the cold front lingering north of the region until it dissipates Saturday and Sunday. An easterly perturbation may also interact with the lingering frontal boundary on Sunday. Under this weather pattern, the winds will prevail mainly from the east to east- northeast, pushing clouds and showers across the windward sections, and showery weather could be possible some days.

After the frontal boundary dissipates, a surface high pressure will build north of the area, increasing the winds Sunday through Tuesday promoting an advective pattern. This advective pattern typically pushes fragments of moisture that produce showery weather from time to time. While the afternoon convection associated with sea breezes does not play an essential role across the western sections, and the rain is observed mainly across the windward areas, or the eastern and northern portions of Puerto Rico, and across the surrounding waters of the U.S. Virgin Islands, moving inland at times.

AVIATION...VFR conds at all TAF sites durg prd. Winds mainly fm E 12-15 kts knots with lcl sea breeze variations. Brief SHRA over the interior and W PR btw 05/18-22Z, may cause Isold-SCT SHRA at TJBQ/TJMZ. Wind will diminish at 05/22Z bcmg calm to LGT/VRB. No sig operational wx impacts attm.

MARINE...A broad surface high pressure building over the Central Atlantic will promote moderate to fresh trade winds across the regional waters. A cold front will move eastward across the Western Atlantic, approaching the Northeastern Caribbean by Friday. A mid- period northeasterly swell generated by surface pressure systems will linger across the local waters through the week. A stronger northerly swell is forecast to arrival over the weekend, beginning Friday.

The risk of rip currents is moderate for most beaches, however southwestern Puerto Rico having a low risk.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.

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Playa de Fajardo
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:13 AM AST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:51 AM AST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 02:28 AM AST     0.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:04 AM AST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:56 PM AST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:51 PM AST     1.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:45 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:30 PM AST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Playa de Fajardo, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Vieques Passage
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:13 AM AST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:51 AM AST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:53 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:05 AM AST     0.58 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:40 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:31 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:19 AM AST     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:56 PM AST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:22 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:59 PM AST     0.32 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:45 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:29 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:08 PM AST     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current, knots

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