Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fajardo, PR

SHORT TERM
Today through Sunday...

Breezy conditions and shower activity persisted overnight, as another perturbation in the trades moved across the region. Based on Doppler Radar estimates, portions of the southeastern were the most affected with estimates from 0.2 to 0.5 inches with localized areas around 0.75 inches. Some stations along the area reported accumulations of 0.64 inches in Caguas and 0.81 inches in Cayey.

An advective pattern, with a mixture of breezy stable conditions and periods of shower activity embedded in the trades, will prevail for the short-term forecast. The broad surface high pressure lingering in the Central Atlantic continues promoting strong trade winds.
Current satellite imagery shows another perturbations in the trades moving near the Leeward Islands and the latest model solutions agree that these perturbations will arrive in the region each day overnight, bringing light to moderate showers mainly over eastern Puerto Rico and the USVI. Sunday is most likely the wettest day of the period, as PWAT values suggested by model guidance increase to above climatological normals (1.5 - 1.6 in). Additionally, the latest model guidance suggests an increment in moisture content in the 700-500 mb layer, as the mid-to-high level ridge moves eastward, pushed by a polar trough exiting eastern CONUS. Although flood potential is low, ponding of water in roadways, urban, and poorly drained areas is very likely.

Strong trade winds will continue throughout the forecast period, promoting breezy conditions across the region. Maximum temperatures are expected from mid to upper 80s in lower elevations while higher terrain may expect mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...

The ridge aloft will begin to feel an approaching TUTT around Sunday, weakening the deep-layered ridge across the Northeast Caribbean. The TUTT will swing by the region between Monday and Tuesday when instability could increase. Then, another ridge pattern aloft will build over PR and the USVI between Wednesday and Thursday. We noted the possibility of having a mid to upper- level trough northeast of us, over the Central Atlantic, that could interact with the ridge aloft on Friday. Regardless of these upper-level patterns, the dominant weather feature is a strong surface high pressure across the North Atlantic that modulates local weather conditions. This surface high pressure will maintain any frontal boundary that could move from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic away from us. On the other hand, the surface high will promote breezy to locally windy trade winds throughout the long term, pushing occasional moisture surges across the islands, especially across the windward portions of PR/USVI.

Model guidance suggests that Precipitable Water will increase from near-normal to above-normal values from Wednesday onward, mainly due to a perturbation or low pressure (observable around 700 mb and below) that could be enhanced by low-level convergence across the windward locations. This could promote showery weather throughout the second part of the following workweek.

AVIATION
(06z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conds will prevail for all TAF Sites. E-ESE winds from 10- 15 kt and gusts up to 25 kt starting near 24/14z at most terminals.
VCSH for TISX near 24/12z. Another perturbation arriving later today will promote VCSH for TIST, TJSJ, and TJBQ.

MARINE

A surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh easterlies for the next several days. A long- period northwesterly swell combined with choppy wind-driven seas will result in hazardous seas for small craft across portions of most the local waters and passages. Therefore, Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue throughout the day.

BEACH FORECAST

Life-threatening rip currents will likely develop along the north and east-facing beaches in PR, Culebra and St Croix due to the combination of fresh to locally strong easterly winds and the arrival of a long-period northwesterly swell. As a result, a High Rip Current Risk statement is in effect through at least early Saturday morning.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005- 008-012.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ010.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Saturday for AMZ711-723.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ712-733-741.