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AMZ726 Coastal Waters East Of Puerto Rico, Around Vieques, And Around And Just North Of Culebra And Saint John- 414 Am Ast Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Today..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tonight..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers.
Sunday..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Numerous showers.
Sunday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds, increasing to 11 seconds. Scattered showers.

AMZ700 414 Am Ast Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... The combination of a long-dominant period northwesterly to northerly swell and fresh to strong east to east-northeast winds, generated by a strong surface high pressure over the western atlantic, will promote deteriorated and hazardous marine conditions through the weekend into next week. Seas are anticipated to reach up to 10 feet, with occasional seas up to 11 feet, while winds increase up to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Small craft advisories are in effect for most local waters, except for protected coastal waters of southwestern puerto rico, where small craft should exercise caution.

FXCA62 TJSJ 090906 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 506 AM AST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
A long-dominant period northwesterly to northerly swell and fresh to strong winds, generated by a building surface high pressure over the western-central Atlantic, will maintain hazardous marine conditions and life-threatening swimming and rip current conditions during the next few days. Small craft operators and beachgoers, both residents and visitors alike, must remain vigilant and steer clear of these hazardous and potentially life- threatening conditions. As the anticipated steering flow will likely increase shower frequency, impacting windward areas from the local waters, the remnants of a cold front will add to this wet trend during the weekend into early next week. More stable conditions, with lower available moisture levels, are expected by the latter part of next week.



SHORT TERM
Today through Monday...

Variable weather conditions prevailed across the local region during the night hours. The Doppler Radar observed isolated to moderate showers over the offshore Caribbean Waters and inland areas with insignificant rainfall accumulations. Overnight temperatures were in the low to mid-70s across the coastal areas and into the low to mid- 60s across the mountain areas.

Satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) values show an area of moist air related to a low level trough moving westward over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, that has been approaching the area through the overnight hours, pushing PWAT to normal values. The bulk of the moisture, and associated stronger shower activity, should stay over the Caribbean Sea with only passing showers affecting windward sections of the islands. Drier air with below normal PWAT values around 1.1 inches will filter in from the northeast today as the moist air mass south of the area continues moving westward.
Diurnally induced shower development is still forecast today, mainly across central to west-southwest PR. Periods of late morning and afternoon showers will also be possible in and around the USVI. PWAT values are forecast to increase again as moisture from remnants of a frontal boundary now north of the region move over the area from the northeast during the early overnight hours on Sunday, pushing PWAT values to normal and above normal values tomorrow and making it the wettest day of the short term period. With shallow convective instability and increasing winds, passing showers are forecast mainly across north and east sections of the islands, particularly Puerto Rico, during the overnight to morning hours on Sunday, and possibly moving further inland. Current model guidance suggests that moisture should linger but gradually decrease on Monday, promoting more seasonal weather. At surface level, a building high over the western Atlantic will also help promote breezy conditions, with up to fresh to strong east to east-northeast winds through most of the period. A mid-level ridge will continue to affect the area during the period, limiting vertical development of convection.

LONG TERM
Tuesday through Saturday...

The latest model guidance has not introduced significant changes, except for variations in the timing of relatively dry and moist patches streaming across the region. Although there is a chance of limited afternoon convective development, the primary rain contributor will result from showers developing due to a cool advective pattern during the forecast period. A dominant mid-level ridge will persist over the northern Caribbean throughout the workweek into the upcoming weekend, sustaining a trade wind cap inversion at around the 800-850 mph level and drier air aloft, confining moisture to the lower levels and, thus, suppressing the likelihood for deep convective or thunderstorm development.
Meanwhile, at the surface, a strong surface high pressure system over the western-central Atlantic will maintain a tightened local pressure across the Northeastern Caribbean and, thus, generating breezy to locally windy conditions with winds up to 25 mph and gusts up to 30-40 mph, mainly across coastal areas and lower elevations.

In the expected weather scenario, with intermittent patches of drier air and shallow moisture streaming across the region, expect variations in moisture levels every 12 hours or so, but less significant than previously suggested. According to model guidance, precipitable water should generally remain within typical seasonal moisture levels around 1.2-1.6 inches, except for above-normal precipitable water values around 1.7 by late Tuesday night and below-normal precipitable water values by Wednesday evening into Thursday morning and Friday. During the highest moisture periods, expect an increased frequency of showers moving inland from the waters, especially during nighttime over eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with limited afternoon convective development, if any. Despite periods of increased shower activity, hazard risks through the long-term forecast period should center on winds-related threats.



AVIATION
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals through the forecast period. Shower activity can affect eastern terminals at times, particularly TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TJPS.
However the bulk of shower activity should remain over the Anegada/Caribbean Waters today aft 09/14Z surface winds incr to 15- 20 kts from the ENE with sea breeze variations and higher gusts neat 25-30 kts.



MARINE
Recent observations from the CariCOOS buoy network near Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have shown consistent deteriorated and hazardous marine conditions with wave heights of 7-9 feet in buoys with Atlantic exposure. Elsewhere, wave heights have remained around 4-6 feet.

Marine conditions will remain deteriorated and hazardous as additional pulses of a long-dominant period northwesterly to northerly swell and vigorous to fresh winds impact the regional waters through the weekend into early next week. During the next few days, seas will likely reach up to 10 feet, with occasional seas up to 11 feet, while winds will gradually reach up to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Small Craft Advisories are currently in place for most local waters, except for protected coastal waters of southwestern Puerto Rico, where small craft operators should exercise caution. For more information on current marine risks, refer to the Marine Weather Message (MWWSJU).



SURF ZONE
Deteriorated marine conditions will also impact surf zone and beach conditions, producing large breaking waves reaching up to 13 feet. These conditions will likely result in high surf and life-threatening swimming and rip current conditions today, but these conditions could continue throughout the weekend and into early next week. So far, a Rip Current Statement and a High Surf Advisory are currently in effect for beaches extending from Rincon and Aguada in the west to Fajardo in the northeast, covering the northern coastline of Puerto Rico. Furthermore, a High Risk of Rip Currents is also in effect for beaches in southeastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For details on current surf zone risks, refer to the Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU).



SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010.

High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for PRZ003-013.

High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for PRZ010.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for VIZ001.

High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM GMT Wednesday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-726-733-741.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM GMT Monday for AMZ735-742.

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Playa de Fajardo
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:27 AM AST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:23 AM AST     1.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:41 PM AST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:09 PM AST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:17 PM AST     0.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:46 PM AST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:44 PM AST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Playa de Fajardo, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Vieques Passage
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:26 AM AST     -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:27 AM AST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:08 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:42 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:52 AM AST     0.73 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:17 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:47 PM AST     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:09 PM AST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:46 PM AST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:49 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:59 PM AST     0.27 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:22 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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