Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Leilani Estates, HI

DISCUSSION

Quiet conditions prevail across the area this morning as convection near Kauai has lifted well north. Weakly convergent SE flow is bringing enhancement to interior cloud development over Oahu where isolated to scattered afternoon showers will be possible, though guidance has backed off of its depiction of showers being augmented by lee convergence downwind of Molokai.
This in turn sets the stage for a rather typical diurnal flare up in showers over Oahu and possibly Kauai without any expectation of widespread or heavy rain.

Moderate to breezy SE flow established areawide today as upper ridging downstream of the resident upper low undergoes modest amplification. Moderate SE flow will tend to be shadowed downstream of the larger islands through the latter portion of the week leading to locally diminished winds over the western end of the state and introducing potential for an expansion of sea breezes during the afternon. This in turn increases potential for interior clouds and a few showers during the afternoons. This will especially be the case during the latter half of the weekend when long range guidance indicates renewed mid-level troughing may further reduce the local gradient. Stability remains low throughout this time suggesting that locally heavy showers will be possible on days when sea breeze convergence is maximized.



AVIATION
Moderate southerlies gradually back to southeasterly during the forecast period. VFR prevails areawide with the exception of Kauai where AIRMET Sierra remains in effect due to low clouds and pockets of showers over the interior of the island. Thunderstorm activity has diminished significantly over and around Kauai and pushed off to the west. This pattern is forecast to hold today, with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms still possible over the far west coastal waters west of Kauai through the afternoon.
An uncertain potential exists for showers to develop over leeward Oahu as well, including in the vicinity of PHNL, this afternoon potentially bringing pockets of MVFR.

AIRMET Sierra remains for mountain obscuration remains in effect for Kauai. Sierra may also be needed for Oahu this afternoon or evening.



MARINE
Moderate to locally breezy SE winds return today into the weekend with winds further weakening early next week followed by the potential return of trades midweek.

Existing small, medium period NW swell continues to fade providing little in the way of surf for N and W facing shores through Friday.
Slightly larger long-period NW swell is forecast this weekend, though surf still remains well below advisory thresholds for N and W facing shores. Onoing small, long period SSW swell will slowly decline today through the remainder of the week. Lack of upstream trades favors near to below average surf along E facing shores, though some chop resulting from current SE winds may reach the waters off of E facing shores during the next few days.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.