DISCUSSION

A return to a more typical easterly trade wind pattern is expected through this weekend as a weakening surface trough north of Kauai lifts northwestward and a surface ridge to the north of the islands takes control. Moderate to locally breezy trades will gradually strengthen to become breezy by Friday and will persist into early next week.

Satellite imagery shows a low cloud band moving into the eastern end of the state this afternoon, with most of the Big Island covered by low clouds with light showers and low clouds expanding across Maui as well. As seen immediately upstream, drier air will filter across the state by late tonight and then be followed by another plume of low level moisture leading to an uptick in windward and mauka clouds and showers tomorrow night. Otherwise, a mostly dry and stable trade wind pattern will follow and persist through the weekend as the ridge remains north of the area.

Heading into early next week, a plume of moisture extending up from the tropics with total precipitable water values near 1.5 to 2.0 inches combined with a mid level disturbance moving across the area will increase shower activity Sunday night through Monday, particularly for the southern end of the state. Showers will primarily focus over windward and mauka areas, but the mid level disturbance could lift/weaken the inversion and allow for more shower coverage over leeward areas as well.

AVIATION

No AIRMETs currently in effect this morning. Trade winds strengthening today with VFR conditions expected in most areas across Hawaii. A band of low clouds spreading over eastern Big Island will bring possible localized MVFR ceilings and visibility, and will consider AIRMET Sierra today if coverage increases over the Big Island. Directional LLWS may be possible on approaches/takeoffs from PHOG/OGG through the day.

MARINE
Light to moderate trade winds will gradually strengthen into the moderate to fresh range tonight and continue through the weekend.
Models indicate that the winds across the waters around Maui County and the Big Island may reach locally strong conditions, with Small Craft Advisories possible as early as Friday morning.
As high pressure builds northeast of the waters early next week, trade winds will increase into the moderate to locally strong range, keeping the need for an SCA for those waters.

Surf along north facing shores will continue to decline as a short to medium-period north swell fades through Friday, returning to mostly flat levels over the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will rise to near normal levels Friday through the weekend as trade winds return and strengthen. A mix of background southwest and southeast swells will produce small surf for south facing shores over the next few days. A slight uptick is expected from the south-southwest this Friday as a small long-period swell moves in and holds through the weekend.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.