Saturday, April10, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nanawale Estates, HI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 6:38PM Saturday April 10, 2021 8:36 AM HST (18:36 UTC) Moonrise 5:32AMMoonset 5:48PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ122 Big Island Windward Waters- 309 Am Hst Sat Apr 10 2021
Today..Northeast winds 10 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Northeast swell 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots in the evening becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Northeast swell 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Sunday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Northeast swell 3 feet. Isolated showers in the morning. Scattered Thunderstorms through the day. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Northeast swell 3 feet. Scattered showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less then 3 feet in the afternoon. North swell 3 feet. SWell northwest 3 feet. Chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Scattered showers through the day.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. North swell 3 feet and northwest 3 feet. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. North swell 3 feet and northwest 3 feet. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. North swell 3 feet and northwest 3 feet. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 309 Am Hst Sat Apr 10 2021
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. Ridge will weaken to the north over the weekend, then strengthen early next week. Upper trough moving in from the north will support heavy showers and a few Thunderstorms through the second half of the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nanawale Estates, HI
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location: 19.49, -154.81     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXHW60 PHFO 101322 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 322 AM HST Sat Apr 10 2021

SYNOPSIS. Light winds will prevail statewide today, with moderate northeast trade winds redeveloping over Kauai and Oahu on Sunday, then gradually strengthening statewide early next week. A period of unsettled weather is possible tonight through Monday, as a potent low aloft passes over the area, bringing the potential for thunderstorms, and a few locally heavy downpours. A more settled weather pattern is expected thereafter.

DISCUSSION. A high to the distant N and a persistent low to the NE of the islands are maintaining light to locally moderate NE trade winds over western parts of the chain this morning, with lighter winds over the E end of the chain. Satellite and radar indicate that showers remain widely separated, but have increased in coverage and intensity ever so slightly. Overnight soundings shows an increase in PWAT to near 1.2", with a robust subsidence inversion still intact near 9000'. Otherwise, scattered high clouds are moving from W to E while dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s F have allowed overnight low temperatures to drop into the lower- to mid-60s F.

The low-level pressure gradient near and NE of the islands will become quite weak today as troughing to the distant NE drifts W and (partially) moves between the islands and the trade-wind-supporting high. Light and variable winds will develop over Maui and the Big Island with light NE winds over Kauai and Oahu, with a few windward showers expected this morning. Winds will be sufficiently light statewide to allow afternoon sea breezes to drive some cloud formation over leeward and interior portions today. There is some uncertainty as to how unstable the island atmosphere will become in the short term as a developing shortwave trough approaches from the N, but the forecast calls for scattered showers.

A potent shot of mid-level cold air is expected to accompany the aforementioned shortwave trough aloft that will sharpen as it moves over the islands tonight through Monday. This will significantly destabilize the island atmosphere as mid-level temperatures plummet from -8C to -16C, but PWAT will remain on the lower side (near 1.2"). Locally derived guidance depicts thunderstorm chances steadily increasing tonight, peaking Sunday, then slowly diminishing and shifting E on Monday. While instability will be high, allowing thunderstorms and a few heavy rain cells to develop, the relatively low PWAT will likely preclude the threat of widespread heavy rainfall that would lead to significant flooding.

Periods of wintry weather will be possible over the Big Island Summits and upper slopes with any deeper convection that develops, and the freezing level may become low enough to support a brief period of wintry weather over the summit of Haleakala - with the most likely time being Sunday/Sunday night.

Models indicate surface low pressure will linger NE of the islands into the middle of next week, leading to moderate NE winds over Kauai and Oahu, and lighter NE winds over Maui County and the Big Island, with mostly dry and stable conditions in place. A weak cold front may move into the area from the N around Thursday.

AVIATION. A light to moderate trade wind flow will persist through tonight. The weakness of this flow and daytime heating will lead to local daytime sea breeze over the interior and lee areas of the smaller islands, resulting in some afternoon clouds and possibly a few showers. Leeward Big Island faces a similar scenario this afternoon as well. This trade wind flow will take on a more northeast component as the day progresses, and continue through Sunday.

Thus far, trade wind clouds and showers are affecting mainly the windward and mountain areas, causing brief periods of MVFR ceiling and vis. Tops of these showers are around 8k feet, with higher tops to 12k feet in the stronger showers. Look for the frequency of these showers to become less by mid morning. VFR will be primary flying weather for today.

A strong upper level disturbance will be coming in tonight from the north, leading to a slight chance for a thunderstorm, especially over the eastern part of the island chain.

No AIRMETS, and none are expected through this afternoon.

MARINE. Moderate northeast trade winds will trend down through the weekend as the ridge weakens to the north. Winds should become light enough for a land and sea breeze regime to setup for most areas. The background flow will shift out of a more northerly direction (stronger Kauai and Oahu waters) due to a persistent trough/low lurking northeast of the state. In addition to light winds, a few heavy showers and thunderstorms will become a possibility tonight through Sunday as an upper disturbance drops south over the islands - best chance windward waters and eastern half of the state. Northeast trade winds will gradually return early next week, potentially reaching the fresh to locally strong category by midweek.

Surf along south facing shores will gradually rise over the weekend as a long-period, south-southwest swell arrives from recent activity within Hawaii's swell window near New Zealand. This source should be fully filled in by Monday, then hold into midweek before lowering. Heights should peak just below the advisory threshold (8 ft faces) early next week.

Surf along north and west facing shores will remain small through the weekend, then trend up late Sunday through early next week as a small, west-northwest swell arrives from a gale that developed near the Kurils earlier this week. Although confidence remains low, a moderate, short-period north-northeast swell is depicted late next week due a strong gradient setting up once again to the north between strong high pressure near the Date Line and low pressure to its east.

Surf along east facing shores will lower over the weekend as the persistent north-northeast swell fades and the local winds diminish. Surf will remain small early next week, then trend up by the second half along exposed coasts as the previously discussed north- northeast swell arrives.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.



DISCUSSION . Birchard AVIATION . Lau MARINE . Gibbs


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ILOH1 - 1617760 - Hilo, HI 21 mi48 min W 1 G 1.9 69°F 77°F1015.8 hPa
51206 22 mi53 min 74°F6 ft

Wind History for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kuhio Bay, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilo, Hilo International Airport, HI21 mi43 minWSW 310.00 miFair71°F60°F68%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PHTO

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN56NE10N12N10N10N10N10NE7NE9NE7NE5W5NW9W4SW5S4W5W5CalmCalmSW7SW6W3
1 day agoNE11NE9E10N12N10N8N7NW7NW5NE6N6W6NW7SW4W7N12E6E5W6SW5CalmW5W7SW4
2 days agoN10N8N10NE4N8NE11NE11N9N7N7N9W6--N5W5CalmCalmW63S3SW4SE8NE9NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Hilo, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Hilo
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:00 AM HST     1.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:32 AM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:05 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:26 AM HST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:39 PM HST     1.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:49 PM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:37 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:44 PM HST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.81.91.81.51.10.60.2000.30.71.21.61.81.91.71.30.90.50.30.20.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Hawaii
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Hilo
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:15 AM HST     2.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:32 AM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:05 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:33 AM HST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:45 PM HST     2.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:49 PM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:37 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:43 PM HST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.622.22.11.81.30.70.2-0-0.10.20.71.21.722.11.91.510.60.30.20.40.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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