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PHZ123 Big Island Leeward Waters- 348 Pm Hst Mon Oct 2 2023
Tonight..North winds 10 knots west of the big island...east 20 knots near south point. Wind waves to 5 feet. Mixed swell northwest 3 feet and southeast 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. SWell southeast 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..South winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 3 feet. SWell southeast 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 knots, veering to south in the afternoon. Wind waves to 3 feet. Mixed swell northwest 3 feet and southeast 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Wednesday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots west of the big island...east 15 knots near south point. Wind waves to 3 feet. Mixed swell northwest 3 feet and southeast 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Thursday..Winds variable less than 10 knots west of the big island...east 20 knots near south point. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet.
Thursday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots west of the big island...east 20 knots near south point. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Friday..West of the big island, northwest winds 10 knots in the morning, becoming variable less than 10 knots, then becoming south 10 knots in the evening, veering to northwest. NEar south point, east winds 20 knots. Wind waves 4 to 5 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Saturday..West of the big island, winds variable less than 10 knots, becoming southwest 10 knots in the evening, then becoming variable less than 10 knots after midnight. NEar south point, east winds 20 knots. Wind waves around 5 feet. SWell 2 feet or less. Isolated showers.

PHZ100 348 Pm Hst Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. An approaching cold front northwest of the islands will weaken the pressure gradient upstream of the state and put an end to recent enhanced trade flow. This will result in light and variable winds. As the front lifts northeast and high pressure from the west builds in just north of the state, late week winds will transition back to moderate trades by Thursday night.

FXHW60 PHFO 030137 CCA AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 323 PM HST Mon Oct 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Light winds will give way to a land and sea breeze pattern for the remainder of the work week. Interior clouds and a few showers can be expected each afternoon followed by light offshore winds and clearing overnight.

DISCUSSION

The afternoon Lihue sounding shows little change from this morning with modest convective instability present within an environment that is quite dry above the boundary layer. As was noted this morning, this will generally favor dry conditions, but any pockets of deeper moisture will have the potential to produce heavy rain.
Sea breeze development has largely come with little fanfare this afternoon as the islands of Kauai, Molokai, and Maui remain mostly dry. However, sufficient low-level moisture pooling over interior and leeward Oahu has allowed for the development of a few slow- moving heavy showers. Radar indicated pockets of up to 1 inch per hour within the heaviest showers. Higher stability reigns over the eastern half of the state as it is further removed from cooler mid- level temperatures. The upper jet anchored along the southeast flank of the aforementioned low will also funnel a steady dose of high cirrus and convective debris over the area, mainly Maui and the Big Island.

Within the next 24 hours, the low presently north of Kauai will be absorbed by a longwave trough that is deepening over the central Pacific. Attendant pressure falls will further diminish trades over the islands leaving behind weak southeasterly to variable winds that will maintain a land and sea breeze pattern for the next several days. As was the case today, interior clouds and a few slow moving and potentially heavy showers will be possible each afternoon followed by light offshore winds and clearing each night.

Model consensus and continuity remain excellent that a weakening cold front will stall immediately northwest of Kauai mid-to-late week. Confidence remains accordingly high that the front will not directly affect the island, though increased low-level moisture in the general vicinity may contribute to a slight increase in afternoon shower coverage or intensity coverage there.

AVIATION

Land and sea breeze interaction will continue into the evening.
VFR is expected across most of the state with brief MVFR and passing shower mainly over Maui and Hawaii Big Island.

There are currently no AIRMETs in effect.

MARINE

An approaching cold front northwest of the islands will weaken the pressure gradient upstream of the state and put an end to recent enhanced trade flow. Light and variable breezes will persist through Wednesday night. As the front lifts northeast and high pressure from the west fills in just north of the state, late week winds will transition back to moderate trades by Thursday night.

Today's first mentionable northwest (330 degree) swell of the season filled along the more western island north and west-facing shores. This near 4 to near 6 foot swell will peak surf to well above head high along better exposed northwest-facing shores through tonight. A second, northwest-turning-north (310-350 degree) swell, originating from a fetch region of severe gales on the backside of a low far northwest of the state, will be on this swell's heels and will begin arriving late Tuesday through Wednesday. This similar size swell will reinforce at least head high north and west-facing shore surf heights and peak surf late Wednesday through Thursday. Very small east chop will occur this week as weak trades die out to light and variable breezes the next couple of days. Surf along south-facing shores will generally remain hip to chest high through the week. A slight south boost is expected through Tuesday in response to a couple of small, moderate period south southeast swells mixing into the longer period south southwest background swell.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Kailua Kona
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Mon -- 05:53 AM HST     2.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:15 AM HST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:37 AM HST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:47 PM HST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM HST     1.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:11 PM HST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:54 PM HST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:18 PM HST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kailua Kona, Big Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Napoopoo
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Mon -- 06:02 AM HST     2.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:14 AM HST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:36 AM HST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:04 PM HST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:31 PM HST     1.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:10 PM HST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:54 PM HST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:22 PM HST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Napoopoo, Kealakekua Bay, Hawaii Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

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