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PHZ122 Big Island Windward Waters- 933 Pm Hst Sun Dec 3 2023
.small craft advisory in effect for seas through Monday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 7 feet. Northwest swell 8 feet. Scattered showers late this evening, then isolated showers.
Monday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 6 feet. Northwest swell 8 feet. Isolated showers.
Monday night..East winds to 30 knots. Wind waves to 7 feet. Northwest swell 11 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 8 feet. North swell 12 feet. Scattered showers, mainly in the morning.
Tuesday night..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 8 feet. North swell 11 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 8 feet. North swell 10 feet. Scattered showers, mainly in the morning.
Wednesday night..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 8 feet. North swell 9 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Thursday..East winds 20 knots, becoming southeast 10 knots. Wind waves 7 to 8 feet. North swell 7 to 8 feet. Scattered showers.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 5 to 7 feet. North swell 6 feet. Isolated showers.

PHZ100 933 Pm Hst Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. Weak high pressure just north of the state will result in lighter trade winds tonight. High pressure building in from the northwest the next couple of days will assist in strengthening trades through mid week. A passing large northwest swell Monday will result in warning level surf along smaller island north and west facing shores from Monday night through mid week.

FXHW60 PHFO 040621 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 821 PM HST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry and stable trade wind conditions are expected through the first half of the week, with the best rainfall chances favoring our windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning periods. A few showers could make it into our leeward areas, especially as the trades become gusty Monday night through Tuesday. A return of light winds and increasing moisture associated with an approaching front could bring the rainfall chances up late Thursday through the weekend, especially over the western end of the state as the front begins to weaken and stall.

DISCUSSION
Guidance remains in good agreement and shows a return of a more typical trade wind pattern through the first half of the week as a strong ridge noses eastward behind a passing front north of the state. Clouds and showers will shift back over windward and mauka locations, with the best chances being overnight through the early morning hours. Although the tail-end of the front should stall and dissipate nearby to the north Tuesday through Wednesday, the leading edge of the moisture axis could make it as far south as Kauai Tuesday, which would support better windward shower coverage. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will limit rainfall accumulations. Easterly trades are expected to peak in the breezy category Tuesday as strong high pressure builds to our north.

Despite some model differences in timing, a general consensus supports the ridge to the north weakening and shifting southward beginning Thursday as a shortwave trough and surface cold front approach. Surface winds will respond and become light out of the southeast Thursday as the front moves into the area. A combination of light winds, increasing moisture, and lowering upper heights will support better rainfall coverage over the western end of the state where the front will weaken and begin to stall. Light winds may linger into the weekend before trades gradually return Sunday into next week.

AVIATION
A high pressure system will build in north of the state through at least Tuesday with increasing trade winds into the moderate to locally breezy range starting on Monday. Brief periods of isolated to scattered showers are expected mainly over windward and mountain areas. Periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility are likely to persist this evening along windward Big Island with pockets of IFR conditions. Windward Big Island weather conditions will begin improving after 10Z.

AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect for north through east sections of the Big Island for tempo mountain obscuration above 1500 feet due to clouds and showers. These conditions will likely to slowly improve after 10Z.

MARINE
Weak ridging north of the state has maintained a lax pressure gradient over the local waters. This synoptic scenario will result in a continued gentle trade wind regime tonight. A better established area of high pressure northwest of the islands builds in behind a hurricane force low near 48N154W that is currently tracking east across the North Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska through early morning. This set up will tighten the pressure gradient down across the region and ultimately restrengthen trades from fresh to locally strong magnitudes by Tuesday afternoon.
These speeds will hang on through Wednesday before backing off again in response to the high north of the islands moving east and being replaced by a relatively small weak area of low pressure.
This low may be far enough south to drag a very weak, diffuse boundary into the waters by next weekend. A large swell created by the hurricane force low will reach our offshore waters tomorrow and likely prompt an all water Small Craft Advisory (for seas).
This will occur just before the period of strong winds commences tomorrow night into early Tuesday across the typical windier waters surrounding Maui County and Big Island.

The High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains in effect for the north and west-facing shores of the smaller islands, except Maui's west shore, through tomorrow afternoon. This is associated with an ongoing passing northwest (320 degree) long period swell that will hold and subside very little through the day tomorrow. Today's nearshore buoy observations and surf observations have indicated that this long to medium period near 7 foot swell peaked today and resulted in HSA level surf. The next north northwest (330-350 degree) swell will be on the heels of this ongoing swell, generated from the hurricane force low mentioned above, and is scheduled to arrive late tomorrow and peak on Tuesday. This large, long period swell will likely drive surf heights to above High Surf Warning thresholds Tuesday. This large swell should slowly decline from Tuesday night through the remainder of the week as it veers more northerly. Strengthening trades should increase eastern exposure chop and lead to rough surf from Tuesday into the middle of the week. Small background swell leading to very small surf will continue along south-facing shores throughout the week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central Valley North- Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel- Maui County Windward Waters-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters.

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Hilo
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Mon -- 12:40 AM HST     0.79 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:40 AM HST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:15 AM HST     2.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:31 PM HST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:10 PM HST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:40 PM HST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:51 PM HST     Last Quarter
Mon -- 10:39 PM HST     1.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hilo, Hawaii Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Kawaihae
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Mon -- 01:41 AM HST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM HST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:13 AM HST     1.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:34 PM HST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:55 PM HST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:43 PM HST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:51 PM HST     Last Quarter
Mon -- 11:17 PM HST     1.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kawaihae, Big Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

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