Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Honomu, HI

DISCUSSION
The latest water vapor imagery coincides with model guidance showcasing a complex upper-level low centered over the islands that is producing unsettled weather across the region. The soundings from this morning's 2 AM HST (12z) balloon launch at Hilo and Lihue show a temperature inversion around 10,000 feet and near 8,000 feet respectively, allowing for continued bands of showers to move through the state this morning. Current satellite imagery shows a band of clouds and showers moving into eastern portions of the Big Island, along with a few isolated thunderstorms just outside the coastal waters south of Oahu. Elsewhere, partly cloudy skies prevail, with a few light showers.

General weather today will be very similar to yesterday with only subtle wind direction shifts veering a bit more from the east- southeast and decreasing slightly in strength through the weekend.
Anticipate more organized light to moderate rain this afternoon, with a few pockets of heavier showers possible. Some of the high- res models are seem to be latching on to the wind shift and speed decrease by showing some enhanced showers popping up over leeward and interior sections of the smaller islands as well. Have updated the forecast this morning to add a slight chance of thunderstorms over interior Big Island for this afternoon, given the 500mb temperatures around -10 degrees C.

The previously mentioned upper-level low remains quasi-stationary throughout the weekend and into next week with only slight variations in day by day shower activity across the island chain. Trades are expected to decrease slightly to more moderate levels from Saturday onward into early next week. Shower trends will also decrease in coverage a bit from Sunday to Tuesday across most islands as the upper low briefly weakens. Global models are hinting at another upper low moving in over the islands around Wednesday with increasing shower trends for the second half of next week.

AVIATION
Moderate to locally breezy trades will decrease slightly this weekend, which should allow for localized sea breezes to develop across select leeward areas during the late mornings through the afternoon. A plume of moisture currently located near the Big Island will be spreading across the island chain through tonight. With an upper-level disturbance adding some instability, some brief heavy showers will be possible.
Over Big Island, expect periods of MVFR conditions to increase this afternoon, especially for windward and mountain areas. Elsewhere across the state, shower activity will generally increase this afternoon with brief MVFR conditions possible with any shower activity.

AIRMET Sierra is expected over the Big Island later this morning into the afternoon as the plume of moisture moves in. AIRMET Sierra will be possible for the other islands this afternoon and tonight as the moisture spreads westward.

MARINE
High pressure will remain anchored northeast of the state through early next week. A developing trough to the distant northwest is expected to ease the trades tonight into early next week. Light to moderate trades are expected through the middle of next week over the western islands, while moderate to fresh trades are likely to persist over the eastern end of the state. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been scaled back this morning to the windier waters around Maui and the Big Island through 6 pm today.

Surf along north and west-facing shores will remain very small during the next 7 days. Surf along south-facing shores will hold at background levels through today. A series of small south and south-southwest swells will give a small boost to south shore surf Sunday with a further boost up to the seasonal average possible during the middle to latter part of next week.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy during the next 7 days.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters- Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.