DISCUSSION
Stable conditions still hold for Hawaii as the islands are positioned between weak upper ridging to the south and a closed off low well off to the north. The surface reflection of a weakening, near-stationary 1009 mb low approximately 700 miles north northeast of Oahu will be slowly retrograding west. The low's stalled appendant trough to its south southwest lies just outside Kauai's nearshore waters. This troughing has created a col in the regional pressure field, thus not conceding to the upstream pressure gradient from a large surface high pressure located far northwest of the state. The result as been continued areawide light breezes with localized sea and land breezes becoming the dominant flow and taking over the show. Light east southeasterly winds around Big Island will veer more southerly across the smaller islands tonight. The well-stacked upper level low in association with the surface low will begin to fill in and weaken into an open wave trough as it slowly drifts off to the northwest through tomorrow. This will result in light southeast to southerly large scale breezes across the smaller islands while easterly trades rebuild back in around Big Island late Wednesday into Thursday.

Moisture pooled along the surface trough has produced the state's highest rainfall in Kauai today. A ribbon of higher 700 mb moisture moving up from the south around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge northeast of the islands will increase tonight and Wednesday's rain chances east and south of Big Island. The lack of any upper support will have the trough just north northeast of Kauai washing out by Thursday. In general, mid to upper level ridging will continue to support a fairly stable, dry and warm Central Pacific atmosphere through Thursday.
The low to the north will weaken to a trough and broad high pressure in the North Pacific will exert a greater influence. This will allow strengthened breezy trades to return from Thursday afternoon into the weekend. Higher east mid level moisture advecting into the area Friday through Sunday will increase more areawide rain probabilities. A more typical weekend trade wind pattern, along with the southern branch of the polar jet racing across the state, may enhance late week and weekend shower activity. A higher frequency of overnight showers will produce greater rainfall accumulations along windward exposures and at higher elevations. With the exception of afternoon showers on the Kona slopes of Big Island, leeward areas should remain fairly dry.



AVIATION
A trough that has stalled near Kauai has disrupted our typical trade wind pattern, and supports the light and variable winds continuing through Wednesday. Expect a gradual clearing trend through the evening hours for the smaller islands, then later tonight over the Big Island as land breezes become established. As a result, the AIRMET Sierra for MTN OBSC on Kauai will likely be dropped later this evening. On Wednesday, expect increasing cloud/shower coverage through the late morning and afternoon hours as sea breezes develop, especially over and around Kauai closer to the trough/moisture axis.



MARINE
Light and variable winds will prevail in most areas through tonight due to a weak trough just north of the state. The trade winds will gradually return east to west across the state Wednesday into Thursday as the trough lifts further north and away from the state. By Friday, fresh to locally strong trade winds will likely return and Small Craft Advisories could be required for some of the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will likely hold through the weekend.

A moderate, short to medium-period north (360 to 010 degrees)
swell will likely peak tonight into early Wednesday then slowly decline through the end of the work week. North shore surf will return to mostly flat levels over the weekend. Select east facing shores should see moderate surf from the previously mentioned north swell. The return of fresh to strong trades will allow for rough and choppy surf to gradually build back to near normal levels Thursday through the weekend.

A small long-period southwest swell will continue to produce small inconsistent surf along south facing shores through Wednesday. A slightly larger long-period south-southwest swell could give another small boost over the weekend.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.