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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 925 Am Hst Thu Dec 7 2023
Rest of today..Northeast winds 15 knots, backing to west this afternoon. Wind waves to 2 feet or less. Isolated showers this afternoon.
Tonight..North winds 10 knots, veering to northeast after midnight. Wind waves to 2 feet or less. Isolated showers in the evening.
Friday..North winds 15 knots in the morning, becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less. Isolated showers.
Friday night..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less. Isolated showers.
Saturday..Winds variable less than 10 knots, becoming north 15 knots in the afternoon. Wind waves to 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less.
Sunday..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves around 3 feet. SWell 2 feet or less.

PHZ100 925 Am Hst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. High pressure far northeast of hawaii will continue to move eastward. Winds will become light and variable over much of the island chain Friday through Saturday, as a weakening front moves into the northwest coastal waters. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds look to build across the waters next week.

FXHW60 PHFO 071948 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 948 AM HST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
A front approaching the state from the northwest will cause our winds to weaken and veer to the southeast. The front is expected to stall near the western end of the state Friday into Saturday, increasing shower chances for Kauai and possibly Oahu. The front will wash out by Sunday, with another front approaching the islands during the second half of next week.



DISCUSSION
Not expecting to make significant changes to the forecast, with the general forecast philosophy remaining the same. However there will likely be some changes to the forecast with the afternoon package to reflect the latest model guidance.

High pressure far northeast of the state has a ridge extending to the southwest. The ridge is north of the main Hawaiian islands, however it is sinking closer to the islands and weakening the trade winds and veering them to the southeast. Low clouds are moving over the islands from the southeast, shifting the few showers in the region to the southeast facing slopes. The lighter winds will allow for some clouds to form over the interior of the islands this afternoon, but limited precipitable water (PW) will likely mean not a lot in the way of shower activity. The overnight soundings from Lihue and Hilo had .87 and .82 inches PW respectively, which is on the below normal for December.

A front far to the northwest will continue to approach the islands over the next couple of days, but is expected to stall and then weaken near the western end on Saturday. Expect the light and variable winds to prevail over the western half of the state, with light southeasterly winds persisting over the eastern half. The proximity of the front will bring some additional showers to Kauai and Oahu, however with the PW near the front now being around 1.4 inches (near normal) and models in good agreement with near normal PW arriving over the western end with the front, not expecting any significant rainfall with this front.

As this front dissipates, a brief, stable and dry weather pattern will return, with light to moderate easterly trade winds expected from Sunday to Monday. Another front will approach the islands from the northwest Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.



AVIATION
Light winds are generally expected to prevail across the state today as a front approaches from the northwest. As the day progresses, winds will further weaken across the northwestern end of the state to become light and variable as the front slowly sags southward. This lighter flow will allow for sea breeze development, which will increase shower activity across interior and leeward areas during the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail, but brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible within any showers that develop.

MARINE
High pressure shifts east as a weakening front approaches the NW coastal waters late this week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
remains in effect for select waters around Maui County and the Big Island as fresh to locally strong SE winds prevail. Winds then fall below the SCA threshold by tonight and become light and variable Friday through Saturday.

Current NNW swell is fading as an overlapping small medium- period N swell fills in today in maintenance of elevated surf. A new moderate medium-period northwest swell will boost N and W facing shores as it builds in Friday afternoon into the weekend potentially reaching the High Surf Advisory threshold as it peaks on Saturday.

Surf along E shores will be rough and choppy today, especially over the eastern half of the state, due to stronger winds. A downward trend is then expected through the second half of the week as winds diminish. Small surf will continue along south facing shores with only small background swell energy in the forecast.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maui County Windward Waters-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters- Big Island Leeward Waters.

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Kuheia Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:50 AM HST     1.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:04 AM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:33 AM HST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:29 AM HST     1.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:11 PM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:45 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:10 PM HST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kuheia Bay, Kahoolawe Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Smuggler Cove
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:44 AM HST     1.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:04 AM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:45 AM HST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:23 AM HST     1.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:11 PM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:46 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:22 PM HST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Smuggler Cove, Kahoolawe Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

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