Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Makena, HI

DISCUSSION

Cool and crisp conditions expected again tonight into Friday morning from Kauai to Maui County. Dewpoints in the low to mid 50s and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low 60s and even upper 50s in a few select locales. The front itself has dissipated in the waters of the Alenuihaha Channel between the Big Island and Maui and will support redevelopment of just a few scattered showers within the remnant moisture band tonight. Light northwest winds will allow for land breeze to develop tonight and into Friday while shifting northeast. A transient period of mid- level ridging over the NE Pacific Basin will allow moderate trades to return late Friday and into the weekend.

CIMSS precipitable water vapor imagery shows a conveyor belt of enhanced moisture being drawn from the tropics northward associated with the gale low far north of the state and a trough 260 SE of the Big Island. The low will weaken and get absorbed by a stronger low to the far northwest and with the return of easterlies locally, that area of enhanced moisture will shift westward, reaching the Big Island Friday afternoon then Maui County Friday evening. Latest hi resolution model guidance shows the added moisture will generate enhanced trade wind showers around Maui County and the Big Island Friday night as an upper level short wave trough dives down, adding some vertical support along with diurnal tradewind shower pattern. Ridging aloft should support more typical tradewinds showers over the state Saturday as the area of moisture shifts over the entire state. A weak front approaching from the north will move or pass just north of the state reviving the moisture band over the sate and will keep wet trades in the forecast for Sunday into Monday.

The extended forecast remains unchanged from previous discussion where extended guidance continues to show renewed troughing within NW flow aloft will favor low pressure development over the lower latitudes of the Central Pacific. The remnant frontal boundary will strengthen in response to developing forcing and will serve as the baroclinic pathway for the surface low to track near or north of the forecast area during the middle to latter portion of next week. Convective feedback is playing some havoc with model solutions at this time, so uncertainty is greater than normal, but the second half of next week seemingly offers the next opportunity for meaningful rainfall across some or all of the island chain.



AVIATION

Remnant moisture from a dissipated front will linger over Maui county and northern Big Island through Friday morning. Overnight land breezes will promote clearing along the mid and upper slopes, but isolated showers will linger along windward coasts.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail under a light, dry, and stable northwest flow.

Light to locally moderate trade winds will return this weekend.
Trade wind showers will begin moving in from the east Friday evening. Mountain obscuration could become an issue for portions of windward Big Island or East Maui late Friday night or Saturday.

The upper level trough that passed over Hawaii earlier today has weakened and exited to the east. SIGMET Papa for high level turbulence has been canceled.



MARINE

Winds will remain weak tonight through early Friday as a ridge will lift northward late Friday into the weekend, which should allow light to moderate trade winds to return into early next week.

A combination of north-northwest and north swells will produce large disorganized surf along north facing shores. The swells are expected to gradually decline Friday through the weekend. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for north facing exposures through 6 pm HST Friday. A series of moderate northwest and north swells are possible early next week.

Aside from areas exposed to wrap from north swells, east shore surf will remain well below normal through the middle of next week. South shore surf will remain at background very small levels through the middle of next week.

A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for most marine zones through 6 pm Friday due to 10 foot seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Afternoon RH values will fall well into the 40s again Friday, but winds will fall short of the critical fire behavior threshold.
Minimum RH values will rebound above 45 percent Saturday into early next week. Thus, no critical fire behavior is expected during the forecast period.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel- Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters.