Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manele, HI

DISCUSSION
Moderate to locally breezy easterly trade winds are prevailing across the main Hawaiian Islands this afternoon, steered by high pressure that remains nearly stationary far northeast of the state. Embedded within these trades are isolated to widely scattered showers, though observations from rain gauge networks across the state show that rainfall amounts have been minimal.
Daytime convergence has also increased cloud cover and produced isolated showers across the Kona slopes of the Big Island since late morning. Meanwhile, the latest upper air soundings from Hilo and Lihue show stable conditions with strong inversions between about 5,000 and 6,500 feet and less available low-level moisture when compared to this same time yesterday afternoon.

A low level trough east of the islands will continue to drift westward towards the state, passing over the islands tonight through Friday. This trough is expected to briefly increase inversion heights, producing deeper clouds and increasing shower trends, especially over the western islands through Friday.
However, overall rainfall amounts are expected to remain limited.
The best chances for showers through Friday will remain across windward and mountain areas, especially during the overnight through early morning hours.

This weekend, however, a much drier air mass will be ushered into the region as the high pressure to the northeast strengthens. As the previous discussion mentioned, temperature inversion heights may drop into the 4,000 to 5,000 ft range this weekend, increasing wind speeds and limiting cloud and shower development. Much lower humidity levels due to the drier air mass and locally windy trade winds will elevate fire concerns across the state on Sunday. Some tweaks have been made to winds on Friday and Saturday with this afternoon's forecast updates, but the overall forecast philosophy remains in tact.

From Monday onward, expect a subtle increase in shower trends to return to the islands as a combination of troughing aloft moves over the region. Trades will also return to the moderate to locally breezy range early next week.

AVIATION
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through Friday.
Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with a slight uptick during the overnight and early morning hours. Expect mainly VFR, with brief MVFR under passing showers.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscurations remains in effect for windward sections of Oahu and the Big Island. Conditions should improve later tonight as drier air starts to move in.

MARINE
High pressure north of Hawaii will slowly move eastward and drive moderate to locally strong trades across the local waters for the next couple of days. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for typically windier waters and channels near Maui and the Big Island has been extended through Saturday afternoon. Trade winds are forecast to increase further this weekend as the high strengthens, with potentially more widespread SCA conditions later this weekend into early next week. Trade wind speeds could then decrease slightly by middle of next week.

A small, long-period, south swell will gradually drop Friday into the weekend, with south shore surf slowly dropping as well. Back to back pulses of slightly larger south swells are possible starting Monday which could build surf near to above advisory levels (10 ft) along south facing shores as early as Monday night into Tuesday,then remain near to above average through much of next week.

Rough and choppy conditions will continue along east facing shores and may pick up further into early next week as winds strengthen.
Surf will remain nearly flat along north facing shores.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.