Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wailea, HI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:08PM Saturday January 18, 2020 5:33 AM HST (15:33 UTC) Moonrise 1:29AMMoonset 1:16PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 315 Am Hst Sat Jan 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Today..North winds to 30 knots. Wind waves 3 feet.
Tonight..North winds to 30 knots. Wind waves 3 feet.
Sunday..North winds to 30 knots. Wind waves 3 feet.
Sunday night..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 3 feet.
Monday..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 3 feet.
Monday night..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 3 feet.
Tuesday..East winds to 25 knots in the morning becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
PHZ100 315 Am Hst Sat Jan 18 2020
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. Surface high pressure far northwest of the area will move slowly east to a position north of the islands by Sunday. This high will then move far northeast of the area Monday night. A surface ridge is forecast to shift south over the state Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wailea, HI
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location: 20.7, -156.43     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXHW60 PHFO 181326 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 326 AM HST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Breezy and gusty trade winds will persist through the holiday weekend as high pressure holds north of the state. Stable and somewhat dry conditions will confine light showers to windward slopes of most islands, though shallow moisture from a dissipated front will produce modest rainfall on windward Big Island and Maui. Trades will weaken early next week, and will likely be disrupted Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION. Breezy, stable, and dry northeasterly trade winds remain in place across much of the state, though moisture associated with a dissipating front just east of the islands continues to produce modest showers across windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui. Broad surface high pressure centered nearly 900 miles northwest of Kauai is moving eastward, maintaining a tight pressure gradient just west of the dissipating front. This is driving breezy and gusty northeast trade winds over all islands and is sending in a rather dry air mass across the western half of the state. Overnight soundings and recent aircraft data from Kauai to Maui showed a strong inversion between 4,500 and 5,000 ft, and satellite data show precipitable water values well below January normal over the western half of the state. As a result, only light showers have fallen over windward slopes from Kauai to Molokai overnight, while windward slopes of Maui and the Big Island have generally received about 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch of rainfall. Leeward areas of all islands have been mostly dry.

A stable, rather dry, and breezy trade wind flow will dominate over most areas this weekend. Surface high pressure will settle north of the state, and mid level ridging will maintain stable conditions will a strong low level inversion. Showers will remain active across windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui this morning and will taper off during the afternoon. For the rest of the weekend, expect modest windward showers, at best, on those islands, while the western half of the island chain sees minimal windward rainfall and dry leeward weather. With dew points hovering in the upper 50s to lower 60s in the breezy trades, it will feel cool, even though temperatures will be close to January normal.

Trades will gradually decline on Monday night and Tuesday as the surface high moves off to the east. Stable trade wind weather will persist, with light showers confined to windward slopes and afternoon sea breezes possible by Tuesday.

Trades will likely be disrupted for the second half of the work week as an approaching front pushes the surface ridge over the islands. A stable land and sea breeze pattern is expected. The GFS and ECMWF are now showing the front stalling near or just north of Kauai on Friday night and Saturday as trades gradually rebuild.

AVIATION. The front has dissipated over the Big Island. Post frontal clouds/showers continue to affect mainly the Hamakua coast of the Big Island (BI). A slow but gradual improvement is forthcoming during the next few hours there. We hope to drop AIRMET Sierra for windward BI by 16z. A patch of scattered showers that affected mainly Oahu and Molokai is just about done. Now, we can proceed with the building of the low level inversion eastward the rest of today. Thus far, the inversion slopes from as low as 6k feet over Kauai to 8k feet over Maui, to 10k feet over the Big Island. By sunset this evening, the inversion is expected to lower to 8k feet over the Big Island, while holding at 5-7k feet elsewhere.

Satellite infrared imagery shows a large field of stable stratocumulus (sc) clouds affecting the northern section of Kauai. This sc deck will be slow to clear Kauai, but is not expected to spread eastward. Surface observation from LIH suggest a high cloud base at 4k feet, and a top of 6k feet. Given this info, some patchy MVFR ceilings with light drizzle or light showers can be expected with these clouds, favoring the windward and mountain areas. Some light showers embedded in the NNE wind flow are also expected to affect the other islands, but remain VFR.

The brisk low level flow will be turning more NE by this evening. AIRMET Tango for low level turb below 6k feet will continue as the surface high, 750 nm NW of Kauai with a 1026 mb central pressure, treks east-southeastward. The high is slated to pass north of the islands Sunday night.

MARINE. Surface high pressure centered far northwest of area is producing strong northeasterly winds across the coastal waters. These strong winds are causing rough, elevated seas. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued for all Hawaiian waters through Sunday afternoon due to a combination of the strong winds and elevated seas. The surface high will move slowly east to a position north of the islands by Sunday. As a result, the winds are forecast to gradually shift out of a more easterly direction from later this weekend into Monday. The high will then move far northeast of the area Monday night. A surface ridge trailing from this high is forecast to then shift south over the state Tuesday and Wednesday. This will cause the background flow to become lighter, and shift out of the east-southeast by mid-week.

Rough surf is occurring along north facing shores of most of the islands due to the strong northeast winds. However, the near shore buoys appear to show some of the swell energy has subsided overnight. Therefore, the High Surf Advisory (HSA) has been cancelled for north facing shores of Kauai, Niihau, Oahu, Molokai, and Maui. A longer period north-northwest swell is expected to arrive early Sunday. This swell may cause surf to reach the HSA thresholds along most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands from Sunday afternoon into Monday. This swell will gradually lower from late Monday through Tuesday.

A large low pressure system is forecast to race eastward from near Japan to the International Date Line into early next week. The captured fetch associated with this system is expected to send a large northwest swell toward the islands late Tuesday night and Wednesday. This may cause surf to approach the High Surf Warning criteria along some north and west facing shores of the smaller islands from late Wednesday into Thursday. In addition, surf may also approach the HSA criteria along west facing shores of the Big Island during this event.

Elsewhere, expect moderate, choppy surf along most east facing shores into early next week. Small south-southwest swells will maintain background surf along south facing shores through the middle of next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian waters.



DISCUSSION . Wroe AVIATION . H Lau MARINE . Houston


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KLIH1 - 1615680 - Kahului Bay, Maui, HI 14 mi52 min 72°F 1015.5 hPa
51205 22 mi34 min 78°F12 ft
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 83 mi34 min 77°F9 ft

Wind History for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kahului, Kahului Airport, HI14 mi40 minNE 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F64°F79%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PHOG

Wind History from HOG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN7N8--E5NE10N10NE10NE12NE16NE16N18NE21NE19NE14
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1 day agoCalmS3SE6SE4CalmNW7NE13NE11
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N10NW8NW8N6N5CalmS4SE3CalmS4CalmCalmS4SE3CalmW4
2 days agoCalmE12
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E9NE8NE4NE3NE3CalmNE8NE5CalmCalmS5

Tide / Current Tables for Makena, Maui Island, Hawaii
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Makena
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:29 AM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:39 AM HST     0.75 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:50 AM HST     0.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:15 PM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:33 PM HST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:07 PM HST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.41.210.90.80.80.80.80.90.90.90.70.50.30.1-0-0.10.10.30.71.11.41.7

Tide / Current Tables for Kihei, Maui (Hawaii) (2)
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Kihei
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:29 AM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:49 AM HST     0.75 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:21 AM HST     1.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:15 PM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:43 PM HST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:07 PM HST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.81.51.210.80.80.811.21.31.31.10.90.50.2-0-0.10.10.30.71.21.61.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kohala, HI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.