Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kihei, HI

DISCUSSION
Currently at the surface, a 1031 mb high is centered around 1300 miles north-northwest of Honolulu, with another 1027 mb high centered to the distant northeast. The resulting gradient is driving moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning, although land breezes have developed in some of the more terrain sheltered leeward locales. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy conditions over windward and mauka areas, with partly cloudy skies in leeward sections. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, with some of these showers pushing into leeward communities at times. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and thunder potential.

High pressure will persist to the north-northwest of the islands throughout the forecast period. This will maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds, with only minor fluctuations in strength from day to day. A wetter than normal trade wind pattern will persist through the remainder of the work week, as a pair of disturbances aloft keep inversion heights elevated and conditions somewhat unstable. In fact, with H7-H5 lapse rates increasing to 6.5 - 7.0 C/km and surfaced based CAPE values climbing to around 1000-1500 J/KG, some locally heavy downpours and even a few rumbles of thunder will be possible across portions of the state late Wednesday night through Friday evening. The upper level disturbance will gradually weaken over the weekend into early next week, and precipitable waters values will also similarly decrease.
This should bring a steady decrease in shower coverage and intensity with progressively nicer weather expected as we move through the Memorial Day weekend.

AVIATION
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist during the next 24 hours, strongest and most gusty from mid morning through late afternoon. Low clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly overnight and during the morning hours, with showers reaching leeward communities at times.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and Maui. Conditions should improve in most areas by late this morning.

MARINE
Surface high pressure building in far north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally strong trades through at least Friday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui has been extended through late Thursday, but will likely need to be extended through this weekend as moderate to locally strong trade winds persist.

Surf along south facing shores will remain just below seasonal average through Thursday. A small, long period, south southwest swell will filter into the area late Thursday and bring surf near the summer average along south facing shores through Saturday.
Surf will then slowly decline Sunday through early next week.

East shore surf will remain near seasonal average during the next couple of days. Tiny surf will prevail along north facing shores this week and into the weekend.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM HST Thursday for Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.