DISCUSSION
After one more day of trade winds, light winds and mostly dry weather will prevail well into next week.

High pressure cells centered far NE and NW of the islands are supporting the current light to moderate trade wind flow, with wind speeds up slightly from yesterday. A strong shortwave aloft will dig sharply southward along ~152W to the NNE of the islands over the next 24-48 hours, and develop into a strong cutoff low near 32N 150W (about 900 miles NNE of the islands) by Monday. This will incite the development of a surface low, with the vertically-stacked system then tracking slowly W along ~32N and weakening through the end of the week.

In response to the low passing N of the islands, the local pressure gradient will become quite slack, and winds will be light and variable from Sunday night through Tuesday night. As the low slowly dissipates, high pressure building far NE of the area will promote a light SE flow on Wednesday, and a strengthening trade wind flow by Thursday. Breezy trade winds are expected for next weekend.

A strong mid-level ridge will bring anomalously warm 500 mb temperatures the next couple of days while PWAT will be near to below normal, thus any rainfall that occurs will produce little in the way of accumulation. In the short term, best chance of showers will be windward as trades persist. The light winds will result in mostly clear nights and mornings as overnight land breezes develop.
This will be followed by warm and muggy afternoons, with sea breezes driving the formation of interior clouds and isolated showers. There could be a bit more cloud and shower coverage across Kauai as a dissipating frontal boundary brings increased moisture as it nears on Tuesday. In the shorter term, a low cloud band now about 275 miles N of Kauai will likely dissipate as it nears Kauai on Sunday.

AVIATION
Moderate trade winds will remain though the rest of today before decreasing tomorrow into the week and allowing local land and sea breezes to form. Light showers will focus primarily over windward and mountain areas.

No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.

MARINE
Moderate to fresh northeast to east trades will continue today over the windier channels and waters around Maui County and the Big Island, while light to moderate breezes continue elsewhere. Winds will trend down Sunday through early next week as a diminishing frontal boundary drifts southward into the area and stalls near the state around Tuesday. Winds are expected become light and variable on Monday and continue through Tuesday. As the frontal boundary dissipates, a ridge of high pressure will gradually build north of the area and we should see breezy trades return by the end of next week.

Surf along north-facing shores will steadily lower through Monday as a north swell that peaked early Friday fades. Guidance continues to show a gale developing to our north this weekend along an old frontal boundary, with a decent sized area of strong-to gale-force northerly winds focused at the islands around 700 nautical miles away. This will generate a larger, short- to medium-period north to north-northeast swell that will arrive Monday night, then peak Tuesday night.

Surf along east-facing shores should see some moderate surf from the north-northeast swell, which should peak Tuesday night.
Otherwise the lack of fresh to strong breezes upstream of the state will continue to produce minimal windswell through the middle of next week.

Surf along south-facing shores will remain small through the upcoming week, with mainly a combination of short-period southeast and background medium- to long-period south-southwest swells.
Guidance does show a storm-force low passing south of New Zealand today, with seas peaking around 30 ft east-southeast of New Zealand.
Although the bulk of this energy is focused at Central America, we should see a small, long-period south- southwest swell from this source next weekend (09/14-09/15).

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.