Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kaunakakai, HI

DISCUSSION

Strong mid-level ridging positioned north of the islands supports a corridor of active subsidence in maintenance of the rather uniform 7kft trade wind inversion evident on this morning's soundings. The batch of moisture that brought showers to much of Oahu this morning now resides over and upstream of Kauai where trades will remain on the wetter side for the next several hours. Breezy trades will usher this moisture west of island during the first half of tonight.
Stable trades then prevail with little in the way of change through at least Thursday.

The resident subtropical jet remains a fixture through the week mainly serving to funnel pockets of high clouds across area skies. A potively tilted mid/upper trough axis remains anchored along the northern periphery of this jet and is presently positioned well west of the islands. As the week progresses, however, this feature will evolve eastward tending to close off and deepen with time. This will assist in slightly weakening the local pressure gradient as subtle surface pressure falls commence leading to slightly weakened trades.
The low latitude origin of the low will limit available instability, but it will nonetheless weaken the inversion and will likely give existing trade wind showers a boost as early as Thursday night or Friday.



AVIATION

VFR from Oahu through Big Island as breezy, stable trades prevail.
An area of enhanced moisture will bring MVFR to windward and interior sections of Kauai for the next several hours before trades finally usher it west of the area. VFR then prevails areawide for the second half of the night through Tuesday afternoon with MVFR limited to isolated instances within heavier showers.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for windward Kauai.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate lee turb.



MARINE
Fresh to locally strong trade winds will persist through much of the week as as an area of high pressure remains far northeast of the state. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) covers the typical windy waters near Maui and the Big Island through Tuesday. This SCA will likely be extended through mid to late in the week.

The current moderate period south-southwest swell will bring elevated surf to south facing shores through tonight, then slowly decline through mid-week. By the end of the week, only small background south swell will exist.

Surf along east-facing shores will be rough and choppy due to the breezy trade winds through the week. A series of small northwest swells will keep small surf in place along north facing shores through the week.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.