Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aguadilla, PR

SHORT TERM
Today through Friday...

A Saharan Air Layer and a weak mid-level ridge promoted stable weather conditions across the islands overnight. The 18/00Z TJSJ sounding indicated a strong inversion cap near the 850 mb level preventing vertical mixing and suppressing shower development.
Minimum temperatures were slightly warmer than the climatological normal for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, while surface winds continued from the east. Some coastal stations reported wind gusts between 10 and 15 mph, particularly over the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Near-normal to slightly below-normal moisture content will persist across the forecast area through Thursday. With available moisture and winds shifting slightly east-southeast, heat index values are expected to exceed 100 F across coastal areas, especially in the northern, western, and southern coastal and urban regions of Puerto Rico. The presence of suspended Saharan dust will further exacerbate the heat. As a result, a limited heat threat will be present in these areas. The stable weather pattern will also limit shower activity across most of the region.

Although the weak upper-level ridge and Saharan Air Layer will suppress widespread rainfall activity, local effects could still lead to isolated to scattered afternoon convection today and Thursday afternoon. Additionally, patches of low-level clouds moving in with the trade winds may bring brief passing showers along windward areas. Nighttime showers may also develop over nearby waters and occasionally drift inland. The forecast will also continue with breezy to locally windy conditions, particularly across coastal and exposed areas.

By Friday, moisture content is expected to increase to slightly above normal climatological levels as a tropical wave approaches the region. This will lead to an increase in the frequency and intensity of showers and afternoon convection from late Thursday night through Friday.

LONG TERM
Saturday through Wednesday...

The long-term forecast remains on track, with variable conditions expected to persist this weekend and into the first part of the workweek. Precipitable Water (PWAT) values are still expected to gradually decrease to seasonal and near below normal (1.4 - 1.6 inches) this weekend, as a drier air mass in the mid-levels filters into the region by Saturday. Additionally, the presence of a mid- level ridge over the CWA and warmer than climatological normal 500 mb temperatures (between -5.8 and -6.0 Celsius) are some of the main factors that may inhibit deep convection activity. Nevertheless, the combination of these factors with the available moisture content, diurnal heating, and local effects is likely to promote shallow convection in the afternoon, mainly over western/northwestern Puerto Rico. Rainfall accumulations may enhance the ponding of water in roadways and poorly drained areas over localized areas under the aforementioned areas. From the latest model cycles, global models have continuously suggested an increase of abundant moisture due to the approach of a tropical wave. From the latest guidance, both ECMWF and GFS ensemble members are tending for wetter conditions by Monday afternoon into early Tuesday, with above-normal PWAT values (1.8 - 2.0 inches). Besides the tropical wave, the mid-level moisture content will also increase by that period, cooling 500 mb temperatures (around -7.5 Celsius), which enhances instability and supports the development of thunderstorms. At the moment, the most likely scenario is frequent showers and thunderstorms moving over the local area during Monday evening into early Thursday. This rainfall activity could elevate the flooding risk mainly over western and eastern portions of Puerto Rico. Other areas such as the U.S. Virgin Islands cannot be ruled out. Since this is expected by days 6 and 7 of the forecast period, uncertainty remains high. We'll keep monitoring the next model cycles and possible outcomes regarding this tropical wave. For the rest of the period, PWAT values will become seasonal, so the afternoon convection in the afternoons will be likely once again over western/northwestern Puerto Rico. A wind surge observed at the 700 mb layer that may be associated with another suspended Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will promote once again breezy to locally windy conditions across the CWA

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. HZ due to Saharan dust may lower VSBY near 6 miles across TAF sites. Winds will continue from the ESE at 12 kt or less through 18/14z when they range around 15-20 kt with higher gusts across coastal areas.

MARINE

A persistent subtropical Atlantic ridge extending southward into the northern Caribbean will continue promoting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds, resulting in choppy seas, particularly over exposed areas. Therefore, small craft should exercise caution. A plume of suspended Saharan dust is expected to linger through the workweek, reducing visibility. A tropical wave will move across the Caribbean waters on Thursday and Friday, likely leading to an increase in thunderstorm activity across that region.

BEACH FORECAST

Breezy to locally windy easterly winds continue across the region, promoting a moderate risk of rip currents for most beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands and it's expected to continue for the next several days. If visiting these beaches, beachgoers must exercise caution due to the possibility of life- threatening rip currents along the surf zone. Another recommendation is to stay weather alert, due to showers and isolated thunderstorms moving over the western coastal areas in the afternoon.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.