Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eleele, HI

SHORT TERM UPDATE
Issued at 952 AM HST Fri Feb 6 2026

The forecast issued earlier this morning remains on track with the main weather impacts (potential for heavy rain/flooding, thunderstorms, and strong trades) expected to occur this weekend into early next week.

For the short term period, light to moderate south-southwesterly winds will persist and continue to draw up moisture across the central islands today, increasing cloud cover and bringing scattered showers and locally breezy winds along an area of weak surface convergence embedded in the south-southwesterly flow. The cold front is on Kauai’s doorstep this morning, as seen on visible satellite imagery, and is expected to move across Kauai sometime this afternoon, then continue to gradually progress down the island chain towards Oahu tonight and then stall out in the vicinity of Maui County on Saturday. As the front stalls, it will merge with the weakly defined area of surface convergence in the southwesterly flow ahead of the front, increasing shower coverage across the state and potentially expanding the heavy rain and flood threat, with a focus over windward areas. As high pressure builds in behind the front, trade winds will strengthen likely to Wind Advisory criteria late Sunday into Monday, with the potential for isolated High Wind Warning level gusts across some leeward downsloping areas.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 357 AM HST Fri Feb 6 2026

Currently at the surface, a 1021 mb high is centered several hundred miles east-northeast of the state, with a ridge axis extending west-southwestward and over the Big Island. Meanwhile, a cold front is located about 85 miles northwest of Kauai as of 3 am HST. Light to moderate south to southwest winds prevail over the smaller islands early this morning, while light to moderate southeasterly flow persists over the Big Island. Infrared satellite imagery shows a band of scattered to broken low clouds over Oahu and Maui County. With mostly clear conditions across Kauai, and all but southeast slopes of the Big Island. Radar imagery shows scattered showers affecting Maui County, a few showers over east and southeast facing slopes of the Big Island, with dry conditions elsewhere. Main short term focus revolves around the big pattern change expected during the next few days.

The cold front northwest of the islands will track steadily southeastward today, eventually slowing and stalling out in the vicinity of Maui County late tonight and Saturday. An increase in clouds and showers is expected to accompany the front, along with breezy north to northeast winds developing in its wake. The front will gradually weaken and dissipate by late Sunday, while a strong high builds north of the state. Abundant moisture will pool along the stalled front while a strong disturbance aloft moves overhead, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall, flash flooding and even a few thunderstorms to the area. The latest GFS/ECMWF solutions, their ensembles, as well as their AI versions support the potential for flash flooding Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon, and as a result, a Flood Watch has been issued. Cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper disturbance moving through will support the potential for heavy snow on the Big Island summits, and as a result, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon as well.

Well if that is not enough to be concerned about, very windy conditions are forecast to develop by late this weekend and continue through early next week, as a strong area of high pressure builds north of the islands. A Wind Advisory will likely be required for the entire state beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least Tuesday. Portions of the state could even see winds reach High Wind Warning levels, particularly over and downslope of terrain, through valleys, and other local acceleration areas.

Conditions will gradually improve for the middle and latter portion of next week, although a somewhat showery and breezy trade wind pattern will likely persist.

AVIATION
Issued at 952 AM HST Fri Feb 6 2026

A strong cold front is located about 50 miles northwest of Kauai, and a separate band of moisture is moving southwest to northeast over Maui County. The front with accompanying low clouds, showers and strengthening north winds will reach Kauai, then Oahu this evening, and Maui County by Saturday. MVFR, with localized IFR conditions, will likely occur as the boundary moves through.

AIRMET Sierra in effect for tempo mountain obscurations above 2500 feet for Molokai, Lanai and Maui this morning, and will likely linger through the day. Kauai is most likely to be added later today due to arrival of the front.

MARINE
Issued at 952 AM HST Fri Feb 6 2026

A front just northwest of Kauai will move down the island chain today. Gentle to moderate southerly winds ahead of the front will be replaced by moderate to locally strong northerly winds as the front moves over Kauai water this afternoon and Oahu waters this evening before stalling over the eastern half of the state overnight tonight into Saturday. The front will gradually dissipate near Maui County over the weekend leading to heavy showers and thunderstorms statewide. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
has been issued for waters around Kauai and Oahu and will likely need to be expanded to windward Maui waters this afternoon, as a large northwest swell produces seas above the 10 foot SCA threshold. Surface high pressure will expand significantly later Saturday afternoon through Sunday as surface troughing develops southwest of the islands. As a result, trade winds will strengthen to near gale to gale force over many areas, with SCA conditions developing over all waters for winds and seas late Sunday and hold through Monday. A slow decrease in trade winds is expected Tuesday and Wednesday, but large seas will persist.

A large west-northwest to northwest swell (300-320 degrees) will build down the island chain this afternoon and tonight. Surf along north and west shores of Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu will rise above advisory thresholds later this afternoon, with High Surf Warning level surf occurring tonight from Kauai to Molokai as this swell peaks.
High Surf Advisory conditions are expected on north shores of Maui tonight and Saturday, and on west facing shores of the Big Island during the day on Saturday. The swell will decline sharply Saturday afternoon and evening, with surf expected to fall below advisory levels by Sunday morning. Small to moderate north- northwest swells will prevail through the remainder of the week.

Surf along east facing shores will remain very small today. East shore surf will build and become rough from west to east tonight and Saturday as a front moves down the island chain. Large and very rough seas will develop on Sunday as trade winds strengthen, likely exceeding the advisory level Sunday night or Monday and potentially reaching the warning level. Large east shore surf will slowly decline Tuesday through the remainder of the week. Surf along south facing shores will remain small with a slight bump early next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai North-Kauai Southwest-Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau- Oahu North Shore-Waianae Coast.

Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain- Haleakala Summit-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu- Kohala-Kona-Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West- Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains- Windward Haleakala.

High Surf Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Saturday for Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Windward Haleakala.

High Surf Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM HST Saturday for Kohala- Kona.

Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon for Big Island Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Channel- Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.