Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eleele, HI

DISCUSSION
High pressure will remain quasi-stationary well northeast of the islands and is progged to build over the weekend and strengthen the local pressure gradient, resulting in trades increasing to breezy levels across much of the state. Latest observations continue to show an array of westward moving cumulus clouds upstream of the Hawaiian islands in association with these trades, a telltale sign of a much drier and stable airmass is propagating into the region.

This airmass will hinder any cloud or shower development and will aid in lowering relative humidity. While not quite at red flag criteria, these factors do pose a risk for fire weather concerns, particularly on Sunday, and something that should be closely monitored going forward. Regardless to whether RH values meet criteria, it is urged that everyone remains mindful of activities that could produce a spark when working or recreating outdoors.

Latest model guidance of the GFS and Euro supports a weak low- level trough embedded within the southwestern portion of the high pressure passing over the islands early this afternoon; however, being a brief feature, it does not seem to have a strong impact to the islands. At most, expect a modest increase in clouds and windward showers to the smaller islands despite the finite amount of moisture available.

While the aforementioned high pressure will remain well northeast of the islands through much of next week; model guidance showcases it will begin to weaken by Monday. Trades will continue to be supported, but at a more moderate to locally breezy level, and periodic showers and clouds will return throughout the remainder of the forecast period, predominately across windward and mauka vicinities.

AVIATION
High pressure well northeast of the islands will result in breezy trades prevailing through the weekend. Expect limited shower activity across the islands under a drier, more stable airmass.
Thereafter, trades will decrease back to more moderate to locally breezy levels and transition to wetter conditions.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

MARINE
High pressure far northeast of Hawaii will remain nearly stationary over the next several days. This feature will help drive moderate to locally strong trades today, increasing to fresh to strong tonight into Sunday. Trades will ease slightly by early next week as the high begins to weaken. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for typically windier waters and channels near Maui and the Big Island remains in effect through this afternoon. However, the SCA will certainly need to be extended in time and expanded to cover additional zones tonight through Sunday.

Small, medium period, south swell will maintain below average surf along south facing shores this weekend. By Monday, a moderate, long period south swell (190) will begin filling in across the local waters. This swell is expected to peak Tuesday, then slowly ease through mid-week. Surf may approach High Surf Criteria during the peak of the swell.

Rough and choppy conditions will continue along east facing shores, especially on Sunday as trades strengthen. Surf will remain very small along north and west facing shores through the forecast period.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.