Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kaumakani, HI

SHORT TERM UPDATE

No updates made. Previous forecast is on track.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 PM HST Fri Oct 9 2026

Radar showed only isolated showers, mainly over the eastern half of the state. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy, with the exception of southern and central Oahu, where skies were mostly sunny.

The upper level low that helped bring so much rain to the area this week will weaken, fill, and move away to the northeast over the next few days. A surface high pressure system to our northeast will strengthen and bring easterly trades back to the state Saturday. Apart from a brief increase in moisture mainly for the Big Island Monday, the next seven days will be dominated by relatively dry trades. Isolated to scattered showers windward and mauka will be most frequent at night. Otherwise, expect light to moderate winds and rather typical October conditions.

AVIATION

Gentle land breezes will persist through this evening before moderate trade winds build back into the islands over the weekend. VFR conditions will prevail at all airfields.

No AIRMETS are currently in effect or expected.

MARINE
Issued at 330 PM HST Fri Oct 9 2026

Moderate to fresh trade winds will build back over the windward waters and channels this weekend, though weaker winds will remain in place over the western waters due to a trough west of the area. Although there will be slight day to day fluctuations, gentle to fresh trades will prevail throughout much of next week.

The current moderate, long period south swell will fade gradually through the weekend, but a long-period reinforcement is set to arrive on Saturday, then peak Sunday into Monday. This will maintain elevated surf along south-facing shores, but it will remain below advisory levels. South-shore surf will decline slightly by the middle of next week, only to be followed by a new long period swell Wednesday night or Thursday.

Small to moderate surf is also expected along north and west facing shores as a medium-period swell produced by low pressure to the northwest of the islands peaks this evening and tonight and then declines through the weekend. A smaller long period northwest swell is also forecast to move through the islands this weekend and fade by the beginning of next week. A swell similar to, or slightly larger than, the current one will arrive on Monday and peak Tuesday, boosting north shore surf again but staying below advisory levels. Surf along east facing shores will remain small as local winds remain fairly weak with only slight variations each day.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 330 PM HST Fri Oct 9 2026

Southeast winds today will give way to easterly trades Saturday at light to moderate levels. Moisture will decrease Saturday night into Sunday, bringing relative humidity levels down to near dangerous fire conditions Monday on part of the Big Island, including near Kona. The inversion will reform around 6500 feet Saturday as trades return.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.