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PHZ113 Kauai Channel- 344 Pm Hst Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 6 feet. Northwest swell 8 feet. Scattered showers, mainly this evening.
Wednesday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 6 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Isolated showers.
Wednesday night..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet and north 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet and north 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 knots in the evening, becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet and north 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Friday..West winds 10 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet and north 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Friday night..West winds 10 knots in the evening, becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Scattered showers.
Saturday..Winds variable less than 10 knots, becoming northeast 10 knots after midnight. Wind waves around 3 feet. Northwest swell 5 to 6 feet. Scattered showers.
Sunday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves around 3 feet. Northwest swell 3 to 4 feet. Isolated showers.

PHZ100 344 Pm Hst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. High pressure will build north of the state through midweek, then weaken Thursday as a cold front approaches. The front will stall and diminish over the western end of the state Friday into the weekend. A large north-northwest swell will gradually lower through the rest of the week.

FXHW60 PHFO 060147 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 347 PM HST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
A weak area of convergence that supported increased windward and mauka showers across Oahu for much of the day will continue to lift northward, shifting focus to Kauai from late this afternoon through tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure far north of the state that is moving rapidly eastward will maintain breezy trade winds through Wednesday. An approaching front will weaken winds as they veer southeasterly beginning on Thursday. This front then will stall near the western end of the state Friday into Saturday, increasing shower chances for Kauai and possibly Oahu. The front will diminish by Sunday, but another weak front will approach the islands near the end of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION
This afternoon, a stationary front and its associated band of low clouds and showers are located about 75 miles north of Kauai.
Surface high pressure that was far northwest of the islands earlier this morning has been quickly moving eastward throughout the day, and is now about 700 miles due north of the Garden Isle as of press time. This high has maintained breezy easterly trade winds that are peaking this afternoon, though they will remain at breezy levels through Wednesday and then taper off thereafter as the high moves farther northeast away from the state.

Meanwhile, a band of low-level convergence has continued to support increased showers and passing low clouds across Oahu for much of the day. This convergence band has been slowly lifting northward, and will shift focus for the increased shower activity to Kauai from late this afternoon through tonight. Elsewhere, showers embedded within the trades are more isolated to scattered.

The front north of the state will dissipate on Wednesday, but by Thursday another cold front will approach the islands from the northwest, weakening the ridge to the north. Winds will therefore weaken and veer more southeasterly Thursday and Friday. The latter portion of the work week also looks to be drier for most locations. The southeasterly flow will allow showers to focus across the southeastern districts of the Big Island, with the remaining islands located in the rain shadow of Big Island's terrain.

Model guidance shows that the front will stall near the western end of the state from late Friday into Saturday. This has the potential to increase showers across Kauai and possibly Oahu throughout this period, though the most recent deterministic models keep the front near or just north of Kauai. Highest confidence for increased clouds and showers is still for the island of Kauai at this time, but depending on how far down the island chain the front moves, points further east could see some increased showers as well. Based on the latest guidance, shower chances were trended down somewhat from what was previously forecast for Friday night through Saturday, but further refinements to the forecast are possible as the event approaches and models converge on a solution.

This front is expected to diminish by Sunday as the trade winds return and lift the remnant clouds northwest away from the state.
A brief stable, dry weather pattern returns with light to moderate easterly trade winds from Sunday to Monday. Another weak cold front will approach the islands from the northwest Tuesday into Wednesday. Given that this is still quite far out, there is low confidence on enhanced shower trends. Trade winds will likely become breezy to locally strong by the middle of next week.

AVIATION
High pressure north of the islands will move east and keep breezy easterly trade winds in place through tomorrow morning, then decreasing slightly to locally breezy levels by tomorrow afternoon. Clouds and showers will focus over windward and mountain areas. Kauai will see heavier clouds and showers with MVFR conditions over windward areas tonight as the band of moisture that was over Oahu today drifts over Kauai tonight. These showers should then decrease by late tomorrow morning.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of Kauai due to the clouds and showers. These conditions are expected to remain in place through early tomorrow morning.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain. This AIRMET will likely remain in place through tomorrow morning.

MARINE
Fresh to strong northeast to easterly trades associated with high pressure building north of the area will persist into Wednesday.
The combination of a large north-northwest swell and the locally strong trades will support Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions for all Hawaiian waters through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will diminish and shift out of the south to southeast during the second half of the week, as a weakening front approaches and moves into the area. Seas will respond and lower due to the lighter winds and the large north- northwest swell moving out.

Surf along exposed north and west facing shores is holding steady at low-end warning levels due to a large north-northwest (340 deg)
swell. Recent nearshore buoy obs are starting to show a slight downtrend, and closer inspection of the higher than predicted significant wave heights reveals a decent portion of them are due to short-period wind waves. As such, have decided to let the High Surf Warning expire at 6 pm HST this evening, at which time a High Surf Advisory will take its place for the same north and west facing shores through Wednesday afternoon. Decreasing daily tidal ranges will lower the chances for coastal impacts or overwash onto roadways during the high tide cycles. For the long range, guidance shows a medium-period north-northwest swell arriving Friday night through the weekend from a broad gale passing far north of the area later this week. Surf heights may reach advisory levels for north and west facing shores as this swell peaks Saturday.

Surf along east facing shores will become rough and choppy through Wednesday due to the strong trades. A downward trend is anticipated through the second half of the week as the winds diminish.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing shores of Maui.

High Surf Advisory from 6 PM HST this evening until 6 PM HST Wednesday for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing shores of Maui.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for all Hawaiian waters-

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Hanamaulu Bay
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Tue -- 12:37 AM HST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:10 AM HST     0.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM HST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:50 AM HST     1.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:21 PM HST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:13 PM HST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:53 PM HST     Sunset
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Hanamaulu Bay, Kauai Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Nawiliwili
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Tue -- 12:38 AM HST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:40 AM HST     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM HST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:55 AM HST     1.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:21 PM HST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:20 PM HST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:53 PM HST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nawiliwili, Hawaii, Tide feet

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